Groupon, Inc. (GRPN)Communication Services | Internet Content & Information | Chicago, United States | NasdaqGS
18.43 USD
+0.67
(3.773%)
⇧
(Oct. 15, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
|
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 2:59 a.m. EDT
The fundamental reality here is stark: Groupon is a value trap with deteriorating business quality. Revenue is flat, profit margins are deeply negative at -25%, and the company carries a negative book value while burning cash. The market has correctly priced this as a failing enterprise, reflected in the crushing 13x short ratio and the fact that the stock trades at a negative price-to-book multiple. While the forward P/E looks cheap at 8x, it is meaningless given the lack of earnings power and the structural decline in operations. However, the options market tells a completely different story, driven entirely by speculation rather than fundamentals. Traders are placing massive bets on a sudden, explosive rally to the $40 analyst target, creating a 'lottery ticket' dynamic where deep out-of-the-money calls are the primary vehicle. This disconnect suggests that the only catalyst for Groupon right now is a high-risk, binary event—likely a successful pivot to an 'AI-native' strategy or a major acquisition—that could instantly re-rate the entire business. Until that happens, the stock remains a dangerous speculative vehicle with no safety margin, trading on hope rather than economic reality. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| MSTL ✓ | 0.207829 |
| AutoETS | 0.216498 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.216699 |
| AutoTheta | 0.348405 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 29% |
| H-stat | 6.47 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.025 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -0.56 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Communication Services |
| Revenue per Share | 12.37 |
| Market Cap | 749,461,440 |
| Forward P/E | 7.84 |
| Beta | 0.19 |
| Profit Margins | -25.26% |
| Website | https://www.groupon.com |
As of Oct. 10, 2026, 2:59 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning aggressively for a massive upside move, evidenced by heavy out-of-the-money call open interest at strikes like $30, $35, and $40 across multiple expirations, with significant volume spikes at $30. Conversely, put activity is concentrated near the money ($17-$19) and lower strikes, suggesting a defensive floor rather than a bearish bet. The implied volatility surface shows elevated premiums for deep OTM calls, indicating a speculative 'lottery ticket' thesis where traders expect a binary event or a rapid re-rating to the $40 analyst target.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.090774536 |
| Address1 | 35 West Wacker Drive |
| Address2 | 25th Floor |
| All Time High | 622.8 |
| All Time Low | 2.89 |
| Ask | 21.03 |
| Ask Size | 1 |
| Audit Risk | 9 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 2.3 - Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 841,390 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 1,223,465 |
| Average Volume | 1,223,465 |
| Average Volume10Days | 841,390 |
| Beta | 0.192 |
| Bid | 15.75 |
| Bid Size | 1 |
| Board Risk | 5 |
| Book Value | -1.78 |
| City | Chicago |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 5 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 18.43 |
| Current Ratio | 0.789 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,790,726,400 |
| Day High | 18.49 |
| Day Low | 17.355 |
| Display Name | Groupon |
| Dividend Date | 1,591,833,600 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,786,104,000 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,786,104,000 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,786,046,400 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,793,908,800 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,793,908,800 |
| Ebitda | 8,128,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.016339999 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | 102.809 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 1.68 |
| Enterprise Value | 835,630,400 |
| Eps Current Year | 1.47 |
| Eps Forward | 2.35 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -3.12 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NMS |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 15 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 19.8652 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -1.4351997 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.07224693 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -9.077454 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 29.9 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -11.469999 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.38361204 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 9.17 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 9.26 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 1.0098146 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 9.17 - 29.9 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,320,413,400,000 |
| Float Shares | 18,371,767 |
| Forward Eps | 2.35 |
| Forward P E | 7.8425536 |
| Free Cashflow | 58,222,376 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGS |
| Full Time Employees | 1,734 |
| Fullday Change | 0.02999878 |
| Fullday Change Percent | 0.16277145 |
| Fullday Price | 18.46 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,790,812,800 |
| Gross Margins | 0.90722 |
| Gross Profits | 451,256,000 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.19 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.9356 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 40,665,296 |
| Industry | Internet Content & Information |
| Industry Disp | Internet Content & Information |
| Industry Key | internet-content-information |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Last Split Date | 1,591,833,600 |
| Last Split Factor | 1:20 |
| Long Business Summary | Groupon, Inc. operates a marketplace that connects consumers to merchants by offering goods and services at a discount in North America and international. It provides deals in various categories, including beauty and wellness, food and drink, home and automotive services, and online services, as well as various types of experiences and services; and discounted and market rates for hotels, airfare, and package deals, as well as deals on various product lines, such as electronics, sporting goods, jewelry, toys, household items, and apparel. The company offers its deal offerings to customers through websites; search engines; applications and mobile websites, which enable consumers to browse, purchase, manage, and redeem deals on their mobile devices; emails and push notifications; affiliate channels; social and display advertising; and offline marketing. Groupon, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. |
| Long Name | Groupon, Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 749,461,440 |
| Market State | PRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_82311805 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,782,777,600 |
| Net Income To Common | -125,463,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 814,932,531 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 3 |
| Open | 17.64 |
| Operating Cashflow | 44,270,000 |
| Operating Margins | 0.0196 |
| Overall Risk | 5 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Peg Ratio | 14.66 |
| Phone | 773 945 6801 |
| Pre Market Change | 0.02999878 |
| Pre Market Change Percent | 0.16277145 |
| Pre Market Price | 18.46 |
| Pre Market Time | 1,792,152,130 |
| Previous Close | 17.76 |
| Price Eps Current Year | 12.537415 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | -10.353933 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 1.5067338 |
| Profit Margins | -0.25261998 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.671 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 2.33333 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 0.67 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 3.77252 |
| Regular Market Day High | 18.49 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 17.355 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 17.355 - 18.49 |
| Regular Market Open | 17.64 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 17.76 |
| Regular Market Price | 18.43 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,792,094,401 |
| Regular Market Volume | 1,021,496 |
| Return On Assets | 0.00773 |
| Revenue Growth | -0.008 |
| Revenue Per Share | 12.37 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.16207206 |
| Sector | Communication Services |
| Sector Disp | Communication Services |
| Sector Key | communication-services |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 5 |
| Shares Outstanding | 40,665,296 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.29639998 |
| Shares Short | 12,054,254 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,788,134,400 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 11,818,861 |
| Short Name | Groupon, Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.482 |
| Short Ratio | 10.21 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | IL |
| Symbol | GRPN |
| Target High Price | 40.0 |
| Target Low Price | 16.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 28.66667 |
| Target Median Price | 30.0 |
| Total Cash | 226,250,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 5.564 |
| Total Debt | 312,304,992 |
| Total Revenue | 497,408,000 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | -3.12 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 17.67295 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | 0.75704956 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | 0.042836625 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 1,021,496 |
| Website | https://www.groupon.com |
| Zip | 60,601 |