Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO)Consumer Defensive | Grocery Stores | EmeryVille, United States | NasdaqGS
9.91 USD
-0.07
(-0.701%) ⇩
(July 13, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
|
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 2:45 a.m. EDT
The investment case for Grocery Outlet is currently fractured by a severe multi-year decline in share price, which serves as a stark warning of deteriorating market confidence despite recent operational improvements. While the company recently beat earnings estimates and insiders have been buying shares, these positive developments are insufficient to counteract the structural damage evident in the price trajectory, which has lost nearly 60% of its value over the last six years with three consecutive years of negative returns. The balance sheet is fragile, carrying debt that is 228 times equity, and the business is still burning free cash. Although the stock trades at a low multiple relative to sales, this appears to be a 'value trap' where the market has correctly priced in the difficulty of reversing a long-term decline. The options market reflects this tension, with traders hedging against further drops while speculating on a potential turnaround, but the fundamental reality remains that the company is struggling to generate sustainable profitability. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| AutoTheta ✓ | 0.117224 |
| AutoETS | 0.122140 |
| MSTL | 0.124185 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.129215 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 35% |
| H-stat | 57.32 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.161 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -1.40 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Consumer Defensive |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 228.197 |
| Revenue per Share | 48.157 |
| Market Cap | 980,323,648 |
| Forward P/E | 15.73 |
| Beta | 0.64 |
| Profit Margins | -8.07% |
| Website | https://www.groceryoutlet.com |
As of July 11, 2026, 2:45 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning defensively with heavy put volume at strikes significantly below the current price (e.g., $5.00 and $6.00 expiring in October), suggesting a fear of a deep decline. Conversely, there is notable call interest at distant strikes ($15.00 in January 2027), indicating a speculative bet on a massive recovery or reversal, while near-term call activity remains thin relative to the put volume.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.26993418 |
| Address1 | 5,650 Hollis Street |
| All Time High | 48.87 |
| All Time Low | 5.655 |
| Ask | 12.6 |
| Ask Size | 2 |
| Audit Risk | 8 |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 2,165,560 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 2,993,290 |
| Average Volume | 2,993,290 |
| Average Volume10Days | 2,165,560 |
| Beta | 0.638 |
| Bid | 7.34 |
| Bid Size | 2 |
| Board Risk | 5 |
| Book Value | 8.159 |
| City | EmeryVille |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 7 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 9.91 |
| Current Ratio | 1.281 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,782,777,600 |
| Day High | 10.245 |
| Day Low | 9.805 |
| Debt To Equity | 228.197 |
| Display Name | Grocery Outlet Holding |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,778,704,200 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,778,704,200 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,778,702,400 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,785,873,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,785,873,600 |
| Ebitda | 206,792,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.043720003 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | 13.362 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 0.584 |
| Enterprise Value | 2,763,095,552 |
| Eps Current Year | 0.50685 |
| Eps Forward | 0.62995 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -3.87 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NMS |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 8.8203 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | 1.0896997 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | 0.12354452 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -26.993418 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 19.41 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -9.5 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.48943844 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 5.655 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 4.2549996 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.7524314 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 5.655 - 19.41 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,561,037,400,000 |
| Float Shares | 93,189,114 |
| Forward Eps | 0.62995 |
| Forward P E | 15.731407 |
| Free Cashflow | -60,709,752 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGS |
| Full Time Employees | 1,642 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,782,864,000 |
| Gross Margins | 0.30067 |
| Gross Profits | 1,422,046,976 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.06131 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 1.19652 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 98,922,672 |
| Industry | Grocery Stores |
| Industry Disp | Grocery Stores |
| Industry Key | grocery-stores |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,398,400 |
| Long Business Summary | Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. operates as a retailer of consumables and fresh products sold through independently operated stores in the United States. It offers perishable department products, including dairy and deli; produce and floral; and meat and seafood. The company also provides non-perishable department products, such as non-perishable grocery, general merchandise, health and beauty care, frozen foods, and beer and wine. It operates stores in California, Washington, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Idaho, Maryland, Nevada, North Carolina, New Jersey, Georgia, Ohio, Alabama, Delaware, Kentucky, and Virginia. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California. |
| Long Name | Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 980,323,648 |
| Market State | PRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_1600081 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,775,260,800 |
| Net Income To Common | -381,916,992 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,934,400 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 981,312,906 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 13 |
| Open | 10.09 |
| Operating Cashflow | 215,752,992 |
| Operating Margins | -0.00105 |
| Overall Risk | 5 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Phone | 510 845 1999 |
| Pre Market Change | -0.10999966 |
| Pre Market Change Percent | -1.1099864 |
| Pre Market Price | 9.8 |
| Pre Market Time | 1,784,016,856 |
| Previous Close | 9.98 |
| Price Eps Current Year | 19.552135 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 1.2146095 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 0.20727655 |
| Profit Margins | -0.080749996 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.195 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | none |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | -0.0699997 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | -0.7014 |
| Regular Market Day High | 10.245 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 9.805 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 9.805 - 10.245 |
| Regular Market Open | 10.09 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 9.98 |
| Regular Market Price | 9.91 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,783,972,801 |
| Regular Market Volume | 1,516,064 |
| Return On Assets | 0.01508 |
| Return On Equity | -0.38448003 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.036 |
| Revenue Per Share | 48.157 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20847368 |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive |
| Sector Disp | Consumer Defensive |
| Sector Key | consumer-defensive |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 3 |
| Shares Outstanding | 98,922,672 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.2258 |
| Shares Short | 22,333,587 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,780,012,800 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 26,190,151 |
| Short Name | Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.3493 |
| Short Ratio | 7.98 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | CA |
| Symbol | GO |
| Target High Price | 10.5 |
| Target Low Price | 6.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 8.46154 |
| Target Median Price | 9.0 |
| Total Cash | 58,998,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 0.596 |
| Total Debt | 1,841,769,984 |
| Total Revenue | 4,729,544,192 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | -3.87 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 10.056025 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -0.1460247 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.014521116 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 1,516,064 |
| Website | https://www.groceryoutlet.com |
| Zip | 94,608 |