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GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL)

Industrials | Waste Management | Miami Beach, United States | NYSE
42.75 USD +0.37 (0.873%) ⇧ (Oct. 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 43.06 +0.31 (0.725%) ⇧ (Oct. 13, 2026, 7:31 p.m. EDT)
Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★⯪☆☆Dividends:★★☆☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 2:09 a.m. EDT

The investment case for GFL is currently paralyzed by a severe disconnect between its operational growth story and its financial reality. While the company is executing well on the ground—expanding its Canadian footprint and securing waste infrastructure contracts—the balance sheet is screaming for caution. With a debt-to-equity ratio exceeding 134 and negative return on equity, the firm is effectively borrowing to fund growth, leaving little room for error in interest rate environments. The market has rightly priced this risk, resulting in a forward P/E that is mathematically impossible given the current earnings deficit. This creates a classic 'value trap' scenario: the stock looks cheap on some metrics but is actually a deteriorating asset due to capital structure fragility. The recent secondary offerings and share buybacks are defensive maneuvers to shore up the balance sheet, but they signal management's awareness of the precarious liquidity situation. For investors, the thesis is broken until the debt load is meaningfully reduced and profitability is restored; the current price offers no margin of safety against the risk of further dilution or credit tightening.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL ✓0.038382
AutoARIMA0.038554
AutoETS0.038557
AutoTheta0.038829

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL

Forecast Reliability
Score 51%
H-stat 2.47
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.515
Excess Kurtosis -0.40
Attribute Value
Sector Industrials
Ex Dividend Date 2026-10-13
Last Dividend Date 2026-07-12
Debt to Equity Ratio 134.488
Revenue per Share 19.353
Market Cap 15,428,062,208
Forward P/E 47.83
Beta 0.51
Profit Margins -2.87%
Website https://gflenv.com

As of Oct. 10, 2026, 2:09 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for a range-bound outcome with a distinct skew toward downside protection. Call open interest is heavily concentrated at strikes 45 and 50, suggesting a ceiling around 50, while put open interest dominates lower strikes (37.5, 40), creating a 'long straddle' style setup where traders profit from volatility rather than directional moves. Notably, there is significant new volume in deep out-of-the-money puts (strikes 20-27.5 expiring late 2027/2028), indicating fear of a significant drawdown or a bet on a failed recovery, whereas call activity beyond the 50 strike is negligible.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.04% 0.09% 0.11% 0.14%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-07-13 0.017 0.043412
2026-04-13 0.017 0.043646
2025-07-14 0.015 0.031224
2025-04-14 0.015 0.030644
2025-01-13 0.014 0.031667
2024-10-16 0.014 0.034398
2024-07-15 0.014 0.036794
2024-04-12 0.014 0.041916
2024-01-16 0.013 0.039853
2023-10-13 0.013 0.042862
2023-07-14 0.013 0.034565
2023-04-14 0.013 0.037475
2023-01-17 0.012 0.039254
2022-10-14 0.012 0.050125
2022-07-15 0.012 0.047866
2022-04-14 0.012 0.036541
2022-01-18 0.012 0.035757
2021-10-15 0.011 0.028119
2021-07-16 0.011 0.034678
2021-04-16 0.011 0.033445
2021-01-19 0.010 0.031746
2020-10-16 0.010 0.045005
2020-07-17 0.010 0.049950
2020-04-17 0.010 0.066313
Additional Data
dividendRate 0.07
dividendYield 0.16
exDividendDate 2026-10-14
trailingAnnualDividendRate 0.084
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.001982067
lastDividendValue 0.017
lastDividendDate 2026-07-13
dividendDate 2026-10-30

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.0714286
Address1 1,759 Purdy Avenue
Address2 3rd Floor
All Time High 52.0
All Time Low 0.0
Ask 43.06
Ask Size 500
Audit Risk 4
Average Analyst Rating 1.9 - Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 3,744,380
Average Daily Volume3 Month 2,642,621
Average Volume 2,642,621
Average Volume10Days 3,744,380
Beta 0.508
Bid 42.46
Bid Size 100
Board Risk 8
Book Value 14.277303
City Miami Beach
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 10
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 42.75
Current Ratio 0.753
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,790,726,400
Day High 43.07
Day Low 42.15
Debt To Equity 134.488
Display Name GFL Environmental
Dividend Date 1,793,318,400
Dividend Rate 0.07
Dividend Yield 0.16
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,793,304,000
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,793,304,000
Earnings Timestamp 1,793,217,600
Earnings Timestamp End 1,793,217,600
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,793,217,600
Ebitda 1,674,800,000
Ebitda Margins 0.24021
Enterprise To Ebitda 15.262
Enterprise To Revenue 3.666
Enterprise Value 25,560,961,024
Eps Current Year 0.83937
Eps Forward 0.89378434
Eps Trailing Twelve Months -0.46
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,791,936,000
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 20
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 41.92
Fifty Day Average Change 0.83000183
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.019799663
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -7.1428595
Fifty Two Week High 47.01
Fifty Two Week High Change -4.2599983
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.09061898
Fifty Two Week Low 33.33
Fifty Two Week Low Change 9.419998
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.28262818
Fifty Two Week Range 33.33 - 47.01
Financial Currency CAD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,583,245,800,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 0.14
Float Shares 274,742,196
Forward Eps 0.89378434
Forward P E 47.83033
Free Cashflow 328,562,496
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 15,500
Fullday Change 0.3665886
Fullday Change Percent 0.86500376
Fullday Price 42.75
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,790,812,800
Gross Margins 0.20212
Gross Profits 1,409,200,000
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.02549
Held Percent Institutions 0.89312
Implied Shares Outstanding 360,890,326
Industry Waste Management
Industry Disp Waste Management
Industry Key waste-management
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,783,900,800
Last Dividend Value 0.017
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. It offers solid waste management services, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal services for municipal, residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Miami Beach, Florida.
Long Name GFL Environmental Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 15,428,062,208
Market State POSTPOST
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_58576575
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common -197,800,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 18,269,096,880
Number Of Analyst Opinions 13
Open 42.63
Operating Cashflow 1,421,500,032
Operating Margins 0.06895
Overall Risk 10
Payout Ratio 0.1716
Phone 905 326 0101
Post Market Change 0.31000137
Post Market Change Percent 0.7251494
Post Market Price 43.06
Post Market Time 1,791,934,286
Previous Close 42.38
Price Eps Current Year 50.931053
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 2.994263
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 2.212797
Profit Margins -0.0287
Quick Ratio 0.641
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key buy
Recommendation Mean 1.85714
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.369999
Regular Market Change Percent 0.873051
Regular Market Day High 43.07
Regular Market Day Low 42.15
Regular Market Day Range 42.15 - 43.07
Regular Market Open 42.63
Regular Market Previous Close 42.38
Regular Market Price 42.75
Regular Market Time 1,791,921,602
Regular Market Volume 2,514,524
Return On Assets 0.012569999
Return On Equity -0.02253
Revenue Growth 0.163
Revenue Per Share 19.353
Sand P52 Week Change 0.17502642
Sector Industrials
Sector Disp Industrials
Sector Key industrials
Share Holder Rights Risk 9
Shares Outstanding 349,077,362
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.040599998
Shares Short 17,708,761
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,788,134,400
Shares Short Prior Month 21,995,759
Short Name GFL Environmental Inc. Subordin
Short Percent Of Float 0.078
Short Ratio 5.8
Source Interval 15
State FL
Symbol GFL
Target High Price 63.221462
Target Low Price 40.141617
Target Mean Price 50.71497
Target Median Price 51.96661
Total Cash 192,100,000
Total Cash Per Share 0.532
Total Debt 10,142,300,160
Total Revenue 6,972,199,936
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.084
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.001982067
Trailing Eps -0.46
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 40.68045
Two Hundred Day Average Change 2.0695496
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.05087332
Type Disp Equity
Volume 2,514,524
Website https://gflenv.com
Zip 33,139