The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)Industrials | Security & Protection Services | Boca Raton, United States | NYSE
32.28 USD
-0.32
(-0.982%) ⇩
(Aug. 28, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
After hours: 32.10 -0.18 (-0.180%) ⇩ (Aug. 28, 2026, 7:55 p.m. EDT) |
Hot Take ↕ | Aug. 22, 2026, 5:45 a.m. EDT
The GEO Group presents a compelling short-term momentum play but lacks the fundamental durability for a top-tier long-term hold. Fundamentally, the company is showing signs of recovery with revenue growing 15% and earnings surging 71%, supported by a robust 20% return on equity and a fortress-like current ratio of 1.65. However, the balance sheet carries a heavy debt load relative to equity, and the free cash flow is currently negative, which caps the long-term rating at a solid 3-star 'buy' rather than an exceptional 5-star 'hold'. The short-term outlook is bullish, driven by a massive 58% gain over the last 200 days and a recent 30% rally over the full nine-year window. The stock has successfully broken out of a long consolidation pattern. This optimism is confirmed by the options market, where traders are placing heavy call volume at strikes above the current price, signaling a strong expectation for further upside. While the statistical forecasting model offers only a weak lean due to low confidence, the confluence of improving fundamentals, strong price momentum, and aggressive speculative buying creates a high-conviction case for near-term gains. Investors should view this as a recovery trade riding a trend, rather than a permanent value compounder. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| AutoTheta ✓ | 0.060604 |
| AutoETS | 0.159152 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.163614 |
| MSTL | 0.195880 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 37% |
| H-stat | 75.40 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.304 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -1.00 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Industrials |
| Ex Dividend Date | 2021-01-21 |
| Last Dividend Date | 2021-01-21 |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 106.105 |
| Revenue per Share | 21.042 |
| Market Cap | 4,248,679,936 |
| Trailing P/E | 15.37 |
| Forward P/E | 18.88 |
| Beta | 0.78 |
| Profit Margins | 10.31% |
| Website | https://www.geogroup.com |
As of Aug. 22, 2026, 5:45 a.m. EDT: Speculators are aggressively betting on upside momentum with heavy call volume at strikes above the current price (31.0, 33.0, 35.0), creating significant new flow walls. Conversely, put writing is concentrated deep out-of-the-money, suggesting a belief that a crash to the lows is unlikely in the near term despite the sector's volatility. Implied volatility remains moderate, indicating the market expects continued movement rather than a sudden spike in uncertainty.
| Date | Dividend | Yield % |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-01-22 | 0.250000 | 2.990431 |
| 2020-10-15 | 0.340000 | 3.125000 |
| 2020-07-16 | 0.480000 | 4.113111 |
| 2020-04-16 | 0.480000 | 3.782506 |
| 2020-02-13 | 0.480000 | 2.752293 |
| 2019-10-24 | 0.480000 | 3.039899 |
| 2019-07-18 | 0.480000 | 2.705750 |
| 2019-04-12 | 0.480000 | 2.440264 |
| 2019-02-14 | 0.480000 | 2.093327 |
| 2018-10-25 | 0.470000 | 1.966527 |
| 2018-07-19 | 0.470000 | 1.794578 |
| 2018-04-20 | 0.470000 | 2.193187 |
| 2018-02-15 | 0.470000 | 2.352352 |
| 2017-10-20 | 0.470000 | 1.793893 |
| 2017-07-19 | 0.470000 | 1.567189 |
| 2017-05-05 | 0.470000 | 1.470128 |
| 2017-02-15 | 0.466667 | 1.546621 |
| 2016-10-27 | 0.433333 | 2.795697 |
| 2016-07-28 | 0.433333 | 1.914015 |
| 2016-04-28 | 0.433333 | 1.993863 |
| 2016-02-11 | 0.433333 | 2.492329 |
| 2015-11-12 | 0.433333 | 2.302513 |
| 2015-08-12 | 0.413333 | 1.820850 |
| 2015-05-07 | 0.413333 | 1.686615 |
| 2015-02-12 | 0.413333 | 1.448597 |
| 2014-11-13 | 0.413333 | 1.562105 |
| 2014-08-14 | 0.380000 | 1.523657 |
| 2014-05-13 | 0.380000 | 1.706076 |
| 2014-02-27 | 0.380000 | 1.767990 |
| 2013-11-12 | 0.366667 | 1.662638 |
| 2013-08-15 | 0.333333 | 1.521142 |
| 2013-05-16 | 0.333333 | 1.331557 |
| 2013-02-13 | 0.333333 | 1.515150 |
| 2012-12-10 | 3.786667 | 19.708538 |
| 2012-11-14 | 0.133333 | 0.736646 |
| 2012-08-17 | 0.133333 | 0.780638 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | 0.5538608 |
| Address1 | 4,955 Technology Way |
| All Time High | 36.46 |
| All Time Low | 1.0 |
| Ask | 33.0 |
| Ask Size | 200 |
| Audit Risk | 5 |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 2,197,290 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 2,011,964 |
| Average Volume | 2,011,964 |
| Average Volume10Days | 2,197,290 |
| Beta | 0.779 |
| Bid | 31.93 |
| Bid Size | 700 |
| Board Risk | 5 |
| Book Value | 11.255 |
| City | Boca Raton |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 4 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 32.28 |
| Current Ratio | 1.653 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,786,665,600 |
| Day High | 32.98 |
| Day Low | 32.26 |
| Debt To Equity | 106.105 |
| Display Name | The GEO |
| Dividend Date | 1,612,137,600 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,786,035,600 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,786,035,600 |
| Earnings Growth | 0.714 |
| Earnings Quarterly Growth | 0.632 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,786,019,400 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,793,881,800 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,793,881,800 |
| Ebitda | 490,335,008 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.17343001 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | 11.665 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 2.023 |
| Enterprise Value | 5,719,777,280 |
| Eps Current Year | 1.3075 |
| Eps Forward | 1.71 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | 2.1 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Ex Dividend Date | 1,611,273,600 |
| Exchange | NYQ |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 30.5966 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | 1.6833992 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | 0.05501916 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | 55.386078 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 33.15 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -0.87000275 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.026244426 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 12.51 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 19.769999 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 1.5803356 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 12.51 - 33.15 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 775,315,800,000 |
| Five Year Avg Dividend Yield | 11.18 |
| Float Shares | 112,423,113 |
| Forward Eps | 1.71 |
| Forward P E | 18.877192 |
| Free Cashflow | -3,632,500 |
| Full Exchange Name | NYSE |
| Full Time Employees | 18,000 |
| Fullday Change | -0.32 |
| Fullday Change Percent | -0.981594 |
| Fullday Price | 32.1 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,785,542,400 |
| Gross Margins | 0.26042998 |
| Gross Profits | 736,321,024 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.0519 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.9481 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 131,619,584 |
| Industry | Security & Protection Services |
| Industry Disp | Security & Protection Services |
| Industry Key | security-protection-services |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Dividend Date | 1,611,273,600 |
| Last Dividend Value | 0.25 |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Last Split Date | 1,493,078,400 |
| Last Split Factor | 3:2 |
| Long Business Summary | The GEO Group, Inc. is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO's diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO's worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 97 facilities totaling approximately 76,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 20,000 employees. The GEO Group, Inc. was established in 1984 and was incorporated in Florida. |
| Long Name | The GEO Group, Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 4,248,679,936 |
| Market State | CLOSED |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_338018 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,782,777,600 |
| Net Income To Common | 291,543,008 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 4,290,798,438 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 4 |
| Open | 32.7 |
| Operating Cashflow | 198,692,000 |
| Operating Margins | 0.13892001 |
| Overall Risk | 1 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Peg Ratio | 1.89 |
| Phone | 561 893 0101 |
| Post Market Change | -0.1800003 |
| Post Market Change Percent | -0.5576218 |
| Post Market Price | 32.1 |
| Post Market Time | 1,787,961,316 |
| Previous Close | 32.6 |
| Price Eps Current Year | 24.688335 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 2.8680584 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 1.5027229 |
| Profit Margins | 0.10312 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.528 |
| Quote Source Name | Delayed Quote |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | none |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | -0.32 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | -0.981594 |
| Regular Market Day High | 32.98 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 32.26 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 32.26 - 32.98 |
| Regular Market Open | 32.7 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 32.6 |
| Regular Market Price | 32.28 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,787,947,203 |
| Regular Market Volume | 1,361,006 |
| Return On Assets | 0.059959996 |
| Return On Equity | 0.20127001 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.151 |
| Revenue Per Share | 21.042 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20504117 |
| Sector | Industrials |
| Sector Disp | Industrials |
| Sector Key | industrials |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 1 |
| Shares Outstanding | 131,619,584 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.0776 |
| Shares Short | 10,215,316 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,784,073,600 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 10,387,135 |
| Short Name | Geo Group Inc (The) REIT |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.111499995 |
| Short Ratio | 6.25 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | FL |
| Symbol | GEO |
| Target High Price | 40.0 |
| Target Low Price | 31.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 37.75 |
| Target Median Price | 40.0 |
| Total Cash | 54,992,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 0.426 |
| Total Debt | 1,607,155,968 |
| Total Revenue | 2,827,321,088 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | 2.1 |
| Trailing P E | 15.3714285 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | 1.9165 |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 21.07045 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | 11.209549 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | 0.5320033 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 1,361,006 |
| Website | https://www.geogroup.com |
| Zip | 33,431 |