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Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC)

Financial Services | Asset Management | New York, United States | NasdaqGS
12.92 USD
After hours: 12.92

Short-term:★★☆☆☆Long-term:★⯪☆☆☆Dividends:★★☆☆☆
Hot Take | July 11, 2026, 4:28 a.m. EDT

The investment case for Golub Capital BDC is currently compromised by a severe disconnect between its attractive headline yield and its deteriorating operational reality. While the 11.3% dividend yield appears generous, the payout ratio of nearly 195% signals that the company is burning through capital to maintain distributions, a dangerous trend confirmed by the recent dividend reduction and the massive drop in quarterly revenue. The stock has already punished investors with a 16% decline over the last nine years, and the recent earnings miss suggests the recovery is stalled. Although the stock trades at a discount to book value, the balance sheet is fragile with debt significantly exceeding equity, and the lack of analyst coverage leaves the company without a safety net. Options markets confirm this pessimism, with heavy put buying suggesting a floor is being sought rather than a rebound expected. Until the payout ratio stabilizes and revenue growth turns positive, this remains a speculative hold for distressed income rather than a core investment.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoARIMA ✓0.018247
AutoTheta0.029817
MSTL0.032431
AutoETS0.034427

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoARIMA

Forecast Reliability
Score 54%
H-stat 4.02
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.460
Excess Kurtosis -0.20
Attribute Value
Sector Financial Services
Ex Dividend Date 2026-06-14
Last Dividend Date 2026-06-14
Debt to Equity Ratio 125.462
Revenue per Share 3.138
Market Cap 3,365,597,696
Trailing P/E 16.78
Forward P/E 10.24
Beta 0.42
Profit Margins 24.64%
Website https://www.golubcapitalbdc.com

As of July 11, 2026, 4:28 a.m. EDT: Speculators are overwhelmingly positioning for downside protection, with open interest concentrated entirely in out-of-the-money puts across all expirations. Call activity is minimal and skewed toward deep out-of-the-money strikes, indicating a lack of bullish conviction despite the stock trading near its 52-week lows. Implied volatility is elevated on the put side relative to calls, reflecting fear rather than speculative upside bets.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
2.59% 10.96% 11.48% 10.42%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-06-15 0.330000 2.594340
2026-03-13 0.330000 2.756892
2025-12-12 0.390000 2.834302
2025-09-15 0.390000 2.773826
2025-06-13 0.390000 2.654867
2025-03-03 0.390000 2.565790
2024-12-09 0.390000 2.575958
2024-11-29 0.090000 0.574346
2024-08-30 0.390000 2.619207
2024-08-16 0.100000 0.683527
2024-06-13 0.050000 0.316056
2024-05-15 0.060000 0.368098
2024-05-01 0.390000 2.296820
2024-02-29 0.390000 2.504817
2024-02-14 0.070000 0.451613
2023-12-07 0.370000 2.542955
2023-11-30 0.070000 0.470430
2023-08-31 0.370000 2.573018
2023-08-17 0.040000 0.272109
2023-06-01 0.330000 2.521008
2023-03-02 0.330000 2.419355
2022-12-08 0.330000 2.515244
2022-09-01 0.300000 2.245509
2022-06-02 0.300000 2.156722
2022-03-03 0.300000 1.923077
2021-12-09 0.300000 1.996008
2021-09-07 0.290000 1.889251
2021-06-10 0.290000 1.877023
2021-03-04 0.290000 1.939799
2020-12-10 0.290000 2.112163
2020-09-04 0.290000 2.248062
2020-06-08 0.290000 2.292490
2020-03-05 0.323213 1.936623
2019-12-11 0.450539 2.562676
2019-08-16 0.313418 1.744819
2019-06-06 0.313418 1.845443
2019-03-06 0.313418 1.782729
2018-12-11 0.430950 2.453987
2018-09-06 0.313418 1.706665
2018-06-07 0.313418 1.747678
2018-03-07 0.313418 1.770890
2017-12-11 0.391773 2.123143
2017-09-01 0.313418 1.721354
2017-06-02 0.313418 1.596805
2017-03-03 0.313418 1.675392
2016-12-08 0.558276 3.091105
2016-08-31 0.313418 1.673639
2016-06-02 0.313418 1.852923
2016-03-03 0.313418 1.916166
2015-12-09 0.313418 1.900236
2015-09-02 0.313418 1.875731
2015-06-16 0.313418 1.909307
2015-03-18 0.313418 1.876832
2014-12-16 0.313418 1.880140
2014-09-12 0.313418 1.902496
2014-06-12 0.313418 1.849710
2014-03-13 0.313418 1.707576
2013-12-13 0.313418 1.804849
2013-09-11 0.313418 1.849710
2013-06-11 0.313418 1.816117
2013-03-12 0.313418 1.958383
2012-12-12 0.313418 2.084689
2012-09-11 0.313418 2.081976
2012-06-13 0.313418 2.122015
2012-03-14 0.313418 2.169490
2011-12-15 0.313418 2.052596
2011-09-15 0.313418 2.143334
2011-06-15 0.313418 2.169490
2011-03-16 0.313418 2.020201
2010-12-16 0.303624 1.862981
2010-09-08 0.303624 2.137932
2010-06-18 0.235064 1.666669
Additional Data
dividendRate 1.44
dividendYield 11.15
exDividendDate 2026-06-15
trailingAnnualDividendRate 1.5
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.11609907
lastDividendValue 0.33
lastDividendDate 2026-06-15
dividendDate 2026-06-29

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.15445024
Address1 200 Park Avenue
Address2 25th Floor
All Time High 20.078356
All Time Low 8.893242
Ask 16.64
Ask Size 2
Average Daily Volume10 Day 1,337,840
Average Daily Volume3 Month 1,427,119
Average Volume 1,427,119
Average Volume10Days 1,337,840
Beta 0.421
Bid 9.26
Bid Size 2
Book Value 14.352
City New York
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,703,980,800
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 12.92
Current Ratio 2.679
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 13.0202
Day Low 12.89
Debt To Equity 125.462
Display Name Golub Capital BDC
Dividend Date 1,782,691,200
Dividend Rate 1.44
Dividend Yield 11.15
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,785,873,600
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,785,873,600
Earnings Timestamp 1,785,787,200
Earnings Timestamp End 1,785,787,200
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,785,787,200
Ebitda Margins 0.0
Enterprise To Revenue 9.618
Enterprise Value 7,995,883,520
Eps Current Year 1.36
Eps Forward 1.26167
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 0.77
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,781,481,600
Exchange NMS
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fax 212 750 3756
Fifty Day Average 12.9874
Fifty Day Average Change -0.06739998
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.0051896437
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -15.445024
Fifty Two Week High 15.63
Fifty Two Week High Change -2.71
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.17338452
Fifty Two Week Low 11.77
Fifty Two Week Low Change 1.1499996
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.097706
Fifty Two Week Range 11.77 - 15.63
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,271,338,200,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 9.27
Forward Eps 1.26167
Forward P E 10.240396
Free Cashflow 297,988,512
Full Exchange Name NasdaqGS
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Gross Margins 1.0
Gross Profits 831,326,016
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.01391
Held Percent Institutions 0.48916
Implied Shares Outstanding 260,495,181
Industry Asset Management
Industry Disp Asset Management
Industry Key asset-management
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,781,481,600
Last Dividend Value 0.33
Last Fiscal Year End 1,759,190,400
Last Split Date 1,586,736,000
Last Split Factor 1,021:1000
Long Business Summary Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) is a Private Debt, business development company and operates as an externally managed closed-end non-diversified management investment company. It invests in debt and minority equity investments in middle-market companies that are, in most cases, sponsored by private equity investors. It typically invests in diversified consumer services, automobiles, healthcare technology, insurance, health care equipment and supplies, hotels, restaurants and leisure, healthcare providers and services, IT services and specialty retails. It seeks to invest in the United States. It primarily invests in first lien traditional senior debt, first lien one stop, junior debt and equity, senior secured, one stop, unitranche, second lien, subordinated and mezzanine loans of middle-market companies, and warrants.
Long Name Golub Capital BDC, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 3,365,597,696
Market State POSTPOST
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_81683203
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common 204,798,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,790,726,400
Non Diluted Market Cap 3,365,597,738
Number Of Analyst Opinions 6
Open 12.98
Operating Cashflow 526,480,000
Operating Margins 0.77932
Payout Ratio 1.9481
Peg Ratio 1.4
Phone 212 750 6060
Post Market Change 0.0
Post Market Change Percent 0.0
Post Market Price 12.92
Post Market Time 1,783,973,404
Previous Close 12.92
Price Eps Current Year 9.5
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.90022296
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 4.048469
Profit Margins 0.24635
Quick Ratio 1.768
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key none
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.0
Regular Market Change Percent 0.0
Regular Market Day High 13.0202
Regular Market Day Low 12.89
Regular Market Day Range 12.89 - 13.0202
Regular Market Open 12.98
Regular Market Previous Close 12.92
Regular Market Price 12.92
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,801
Regular Market Volume 866,550
Return On Assets 0.046609998
Return On Equity 0.05257
Revenue Growth -0.12
Revenue Per Share 3.138
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20847368
Sector Financial Services
Sector Disp Financial Services
Sector Key financial-services
Shares Outstanding 260,495,181
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0514
Shares Short 13,390,746
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 13,086,721
Short Name Golub Capital BDC, Inc.
Short Percent Of Float 0.053000003
Short Ratio 10.37
Source Interval 15
State NY
Symbol GBDC
Target High Price 14.0
Target Low Price 13.0
Target Mean Price 13.75
Target Median Price 14.0
Total Cash 72,192,000
Total Cash Per Share 0.277
Total Debt 4,702,477,824
Total Revenue 831,326,016
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 1.5
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.11609907
Trailing Eps 0.77
Trailing P E 16.77922
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 13.2454
Two Hundred Day Average Change -0.32540035
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.024567045
Type Disp Equity
Volume 866,550
Website https://www.golubcapitalbdc.com
Zip 10,166