First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG)Consumer Cyclical | Restaurants | Bradenton, United States | NasdaqGS
12.36 USD
+0.53
(4.480%)
⇧
(Oct. 15, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
After hours: 12.36 |
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 11:39 a.m. EDT
The investment case for First Watch is currently broken by a catastrophic balance sheet and a deteriorating business trajectory. The company is drowning in debt, with liabilities nearly 50 times its equity and a current ratio of just 0.27, meaning it cannot cover its immediate obligations without selling assets or raising capital at distressed terms. This leverage is crushing the stock's valuation, pushing the forward P/E to 45 despite a forward EPS that is actually contracting. While analysts remain optimistic with a 'Strong Buy' rating and a $19 target, this ignores the reality that the business is generating negative free cash flow and has seen its stock price halve over the last year. The options market confirms this fear, with traders aggressively buying cheap insurance against further declines while offering almost no premium for upside moves. Until the debt load is reduced and profitability is restored, this remains a high-risk situation where the odds favor continued distress over recovery. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| MSTL ✓ | 0.084789 |
| AutoTheta | 0.085028 |
| AutoETS | 0.090051 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.090055 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 36% |
| H-stat | 25.69 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.083 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -1.11 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 169.324 |
| Revenue per Share | 21.519 |
| Market Cap | 762,765,696 |
| Trailing P/E | 44.14 |
| Forward P/E | 50.28 |
| Beta | 1.05 |
| Profit Margins | 1.35% |
| Website | https://www.firstwatch.com |
As of Oct. 10, 2026, 11:39 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning heavily for downside protection, evidenced by massive open interest in deep out-of-the-money puts (strikes at $5 and $7.50) expiring in May 2027, which accounts for 100% of volume in that bucket. Conversely, call activity is concentrated in out-of-the-money strikes ($12.50 and $15.00) with very low volume relative to put interest, indicating a speculative bet on a bounce rather than a conviction trade on further appreciation.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.3274588 |
| Address1 | 8,725 Pendery Place |
| Address2 | Suite 201 |
| All Time High | 25.98 |
| All Time Low | 9.88 |
| Ask | 15.23 |
| Ask Size | 2 |
| Audit Risk | 5 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 1.0 - Strong Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 1,793,950 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 1,249,106 |
| Average Volume | 1,249,106 |
| Average Volume10Days | 1,793,950 |
| Beta | 1.053 |
| Bid | 8.95 |
| Bid Size | 2 |
| Board Risk | 5 |
| Book Value | 10.276 |
| City | Bradenton |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 10 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 12.36 |
| Current Ratio | 0.267 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,790,726,400 |
| Day High | 12.43 |
| Day Low | 11.79 |
| Debt To Equity | 169.324 |
| Display Name | First Watch Restaurant |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,785,844,800 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,785,844,800 |
| Earnings Growth | 0.264 |
| Earnings Quarterly Growth | 0.111 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,785,846,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,793,709,000 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,793,709,000 |
| Ebitda | 116,442,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.08835 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | 15.316 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 1.353 |
| Enterprise Value | 1,783,376,128 |
| Eps Current Year | 0.13159 |
| Eps Forward | 0.2458 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | 0.28 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NMS |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 15 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 11.5358 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | 0.8241997 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | 0.07144712 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -32.74588 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 18.823 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -6.4630003 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.34335655 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 9.88 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 2.4799995 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.2510121 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 9.88 - 18.823 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,633,095,000,000 |
| Float Shares | 60,647,278 |
| Forward Eps | 0.2458 |
| Forward P E | 50.284782 |
| Free Cashflow | -42,843,376 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGS |
| Full Time Employees | 18,000 |
| Fullday Change | 0.52999973 |
| Fullday Change Percent | 4.480133 |
| Fullday Price | 12.36 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,790,812,800 |
| Gross Margins | 0.20633 |
| Gross Profits | 271,948,000 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.018509999 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 1.09141 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 61,712,435 |
| Industry | Restaurants |
| Industry Disp | Restaurants |
| Industry Key | restaurants |
| Ipo Expected Date | 2,021-10-01 |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,766,880,000 |
| Long Business Summary | First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is based in Bradenton, Florida. |
| Long Name | First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 762,765,696 |
| Market State | POST |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_1680518858 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,782,604,800 |
| Net Income To Common | 17,809,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,416,000 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 636,872,329 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 10 |
| Open | 11.87 |
| Operating Cashflow | 128,238,000 |
| Operating Margins | 0.02481 |
| Overall Risk | 8 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Phone | 941 907 9800 |
| Post Market Change | 0.0 |
| Post Market Change Percent | 0.0 |
| Post Market Price | 12.36 |
| Post Market Time | 1,792,094,454 |
| Previous Close | 11.83 |
| Price Eps Current Year | 93.92811 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 1.2028027 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 0.5787275 |
| Profit Margins | 0.01351 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.153 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | strong_buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 1.0 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 0.52999973 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 4.480133 |
| Regular Market Day High | 12.43 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 11.79 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 11.79 - 12.43 |
| Regular Market Open | 11.87 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 11.83 |
| Regular Market Price | 12.36 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,792,094,401 |
| Regular Market Volume | 1,945,754 |
| Return On Assets | 0.01176 |
| Return On Equity | 0.02883 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.152 |
| Revenue Per Share | 21.519 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.16440773 |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical |
| Sector Disp | Consumer Cyclical |
| Sector Key | consumer-cyclical |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 6 |
| Shares Outstanding | 61,712,435 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.1099 |
| Shares Short | 6,779,902 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,788,134,400 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 6,796,802 |
| Short Name | First Watch Restaurant Group, I |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.1232 |
| Short Ratio | 5.32 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | FL |
| Symbol | FWRG |
| Target High Price | 22.0 |
| Target Low Price | 15.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 19.1 |
| Target Median Price | 20.0 |
| Total Cash | 20,485,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 0.332 |
| Total Debt | 1,073,803,008 |
| Total Revenue | 1,318,004,992 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | 0.28 |
| Trailing P E | 44.142857 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 12.6665 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -0.30650043 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.024197722 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 1,945,754 |
| Website | https://www.firstwatch.com |
| Zip | 34,201 |