Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL)Consumer Cyclical | Footwear & Accessories | Richardson, United States | NasdaqGS
4.12 USD
-0.01
(-0.242%) ⇩
(July 13, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
After hours: 4.12 |
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 5:49 a.m. EDT
The long-term outlook is severely compromised by a decade-long structural decline. Despite a recent annual rebound, the asset has lost over 94% of its value since 2016, with six of the last nine years seeing negative returns. The balance sheet reflects this distress, carrying a debt-to-equity ratio exceeding 400% and generating negative operating cash flow, which makes the negative earnings per share a symptom of a failing business rather than a temporary blip. While the forward P/E appears low, it is meaningless given the negative earnings and deteriorating fundamentals. There is no dividend to provide income, and the lack of analyst coverage suggests the market has largely written off the company. Short-term, the options market is screaming caution; the heavy concentration of put open interest at lower strikes ($3.00-$4.00) for the September expiration signals that speculators expect a significant drop to test those floors. With a beta of 1.63, any sector weakness will amplify losses here. The statistical forecast model is unreliable, so we cannot rely on it, but the confluence of a broken balance sheet, multi-year price destruction, and bearish options flow warrants a strong sell stance. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| AutoTheta ✓ | 0.185215 |
| AutoETS | 0.211537 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.211540 |
| MSTL | 0.228006 |
| MSTL_60 | 0.256260 |
| MSTL_126 | 0.275185 |
| MSTL_60_126 | 0.292801 |
Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: AutoTheta
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 27% |
| H-stat | 1.84 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.000 |
| Excess Kurtosis | 1.94 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 401.778 |
| Revenue per Share | 17.987 |
| Market Cap | 243,498,592 |
| Forward P/E | -17.91 |
| Beta | 1.63 |
| Profit Margins | -6.18% |
| Website | https://www.fossilgroup.com |
As of July 11, 2026, 5:49 a.m. EDT: Speculator positioning is heavily skewed toward downside protection. For the September expiration, out-of-the-money put open interest is nearly double the call open interest, while in-the-money calls are significantly heavier than in-the-money puts, indicating a 'bearish gamma' setup where traders are betting on a drop to strike prices like $3.00. The July and August expirations show almost zero interest in in-the-money puts, suggesting a belief that the stock will stay above current levels briefly before falling further in the longer term.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | 1.4879518 |
| Address1 | 901 South Central Expressway |
| All Time High | 139.2 |
| All Time Low | 0.75 |
| Ask | 5.28 |
| Ask Size | 2 |
| Audit Risk | 2 |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 1,420,730 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 873,803 |
| Average Volume | 873,803 |
| Average Volume10Days | 1,420,730 |
| Beta | 1.634 |
| Bid | 3.01 |
| Bid Size | 2 |
| Board Risk | 1 |
| Book Value | 1.773 |
| City | Richardson |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 3 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 4.12 |
| Current Ratio | 1.72 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,782,777,600 |
| Day High | 4.22 |
| Day Low | 4.08 |
| Debt To Equity | 401.778 |
| Display Name | Fossil |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,778,706,000 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,778,706,000 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,778,702,400 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,786,564,800 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,786,564,800 |
| Ebitda | 39,450,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.03961 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | 12.176 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 0.482 |
| Enterprise Value | 480,335,584 |
| Eps Current Year | -0.51 |
| Eps Forward | -0.23 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -1.12 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NMS |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 4.2018 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -0.081799984 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.019467844 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | 148.79518 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 5.75 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -1.6300001 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.2834783 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 1.54 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 2.58 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 1.6753247 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 1.54 - 5.75 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 734,275,800,000 |
| Float Shares | 48,540,142 |
| Forward Eps | -0.23 |
| Forward P E | -17.913042 |
| Free Cashflow | 61,014,624 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGS |
| Full Time Employees | 4,500 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,782,864,000 |
| Gross Margins | 0.55716 |
| Gross Profits | 554,859,008 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.04249 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.61201 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 59,101,598 |
| Industry | Footwear & Accessories |
| Industry Disp | Footwear & Accessories |
| Industry Key | footwear-accessories |
| Ir Website | http://www.fossil.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/ContentView?page=investorRelations_stockSECInfo&storeId=12052&catalogId=25005&langId=-1 |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,398,400 |
| Last Split Date | 1,081,728,000 |
| Last Split Factor | 3:2 |
| Long Business Summary | Fossil Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and distributes consumer fashion accessories in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company's products include traditional watches, smartwatches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses. It also manufactures and distributes private label brands. The company offers its products under its proprietary brands, such as FOSSIL, SKAGEN, MICHELE, RELIC, and ZODIAC; and under the licensed brands, including ARMANI EXCHANGE, DIESEL, EMPORIO ARMANI, KATE SPADE NEW YORK, MICHAEL KORS, SKECHERS, and TORY BURCH. It sells its products through company-owned retail and outlet stores, department and specialty retail stores, mass market stores, e-commerce sites, licensed and franchised FOSSIL retail stores, retail concessions, and airlines, as well as operate stores under the WATCH STATION and WSI brands. The company was formerly known as Fossil, Inc. and changed its name to Fossil Group, Inc. in May 2013. Fossil Group, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Richardson, Texas. |
| Long Name | Fossil Group, Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 243,498,592 |
| Market State | PREPRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_317037 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,775,260,800 |
| Net Income To Common | -61,533,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,934,400 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 244,089,599 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 2 |
| Open | 4.13 |
| Operating Cashflow | -19,305,000 |
| Operating Margins | 0.06293 |
| Overall Risk | 1 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Peg Ratio | 1.23 |
| Phone | 972 234 2525 |
| Post Market Change | 0.0 |
| Post Market Change Percent | 0.0 |
| Post Market Price | 4.12 |
| Post Market Time | 1,783,973,404 |
| Previous Close | 4.13 |
| Price Eps Current Year | -8.078431 |
| Price Hint | 4 |
| Price To Book | 2.323745 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 0.24450743 |
| Profit Margins | -0.06179 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.782 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | none |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | -0.0100002 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | -0.242136 |
| Regular Market Day High | 4.22 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 4.08 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 4.08 - 4.22 |
| Regular Market Open | 4.13 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 4.13 |
| Regular Market Price | 4.12 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,783,972,801 |
| Regular Market Volume | 495,370 |
| Return On Assets | 0.02615 |
| Return On Equity | -0.5845 |
| Revenue Growth | -0.037 |
| Revenue Per Share | 17.987 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20847368 |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical |
| Sector Disp | Consumer Cyclical |
| Sector Key | consumer-cyclical |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 2 |
| Shares Outstanding | 59,101,598 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.0727 |
| Shares Short | 4,297,343 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,780,012,800 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 3,238,836 |
| Short Name | Fossil Group, Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.0756 |
| Short Ratio | 4.37 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | TX |
| Symbol | FOSL |
| Target High Price | 7.0 |
| Target Low Price | 7.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 7.0 |
| Target Median Price | 7.0 |
| Total Cash | 81,384,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 1.377 |
| Total Debt | 334,147,008 |
| Total Revenue | 995,873,984 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | -1.12 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 3.75285 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | 0.36714983 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | 0.09783227 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 495,370 |
| Website | https://www.fossilgroup.com |
| Zip | 75,080 |