Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL)Consumer Cyclical | Footwear & Accessories | Richardson, United States | NasdaqGS
7.15 USD
After hours: 7.15 |
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 1:12 a.m. EDT
The investment case for Fossil Group is currently broken by a perfect storm of deteriorating fundamentals and a hostile capital structure. The company is bleeding value with negative earnings (-$1.27 EPS), shrinking revenues (-4.9%), and a catastrophic return on equity of -66.5%. While the forward P/E looks cheap at 55x, it is mathematically meaningless given the lack of earnings, masking a reality where the business is failing to generate profit. The balance sheet is dangerously leveraged with debt-to-equity exceeding 460x, leaving little room for error. The market has already priced this disaster into the stock, which is trading near its 52-week lows despite a 'Strong Buy' analyst recommendation that likely relies on overly optimistic turnaround assumptions. The options market confirms this pessimism; traders are buying deep out-of-the-money puts to insure against further collapse, while call buyers are virtually absent. There is no speculative enthusiasm for a recovery. Until the company demonstrates a path to profitability and deleveraging, this remains a high-risk speculative vehicle with no margin of safety. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| AutoARIMA ✓ | 0.248501 |
| AutoTheta | 0.270426 |
| AutoETS | 0.275654 |
| MSTL | 0.276816 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoARIMA
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 40% |
| H-stat | 1.30 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.367 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -0.07 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 462.123 |
| Revenue per Share | 17.368 |
| Market Cap | 422,837,088 |
| Forward P/E | 55.00 |
| Beta | 1.56 |
| Profit Margins | -7.09% |
| Website | https://www.fossilgroup.com |
As of Oct. 10, 2026, 1:12 a.m. EDT: Speculators are overwhelmingly positioning for downside protection rather than upside participation. Put open interest is concentrated deep in-the-money (strikes $3.00-$5.00) across all expirations, representing nearly 100% of total put volume and open interest. Conversely, call activity is sparse, with significant open interest found only in deep in-the-money strikes ($4.00-$6.00), suggesting a 'floor' strategy rather than a bullish bet. Implied volatility is elevated on the downside strikes compared to the upside, indicating a market pricing in a higher probability of a crash than a rally.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | 1.6981132 |
| Address1 | 901 South Central Expressway |
| All Time High | 139.2 |
| All Time Low | 0.75 |
| Ask | 9.03 |
| Ask Size | 2 |
| Audit Risk | 2 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 1.3 - Strong Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 919,670 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 861,795 |
| Average Volume | 861,795 |
| Average Volume10Days | 919,670 |
| Beta | 1.564 |
| Bid | 5.24 |
| Bid Size | 2 |
| Board Risk | 7 |
| Book Value | 1.588 |
| City | Richardson |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 5 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 7.15 |
| Current Ratio | 1.762 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,790,726,400 |
| Day High | 7.389 |
| Day Low | 6.992 |
| Debt To Equity | 462.123 |
| Display Name | Fossil |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,786,568,400 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,786,568,400 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,786,564,800 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,794,513,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,794,513,600 |
| Ebitda | 31,010,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.03148 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | 21.027 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 0.662 |
| Enterprise Value | 652,062,080 |
| Eps Current Year | -1.6 |
| Eps Forward | 0.13 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -1.27 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NMS |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 15 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 5.754 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | 1.3959999 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | 0.2426138 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | 169.81133 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 7.389 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -0.23899984 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.03234536 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 1.7 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 5.45 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 3.205882 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 1.7 - 7.389 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 734,275,800,000 |
| Float Shares | 45,876,256 |
| Forward Eps | 0.13 |
| Forward P E | 55.000004 |
| Free Cashflow | 24,712,624 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGS |
| Full Time Employees | 4,500 |
| Fullday Change | 0.0 |
| Fullday Change Percent | 0.0 |
| Fullday Price | 7.15 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,790,812,800 |
| Gross Margins | 0.56734 |
| Gross Profits | 558,924,992 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.04361 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.73584 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 59,138,052 |
| Industry | Footwear & Accessories |
| Industry Disp | Footwear & Accessories |
| Industry Key | footwear-accessories |
| Ir Website | http://www.fossil.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/ContentView?page=investorRelations_stockSECInfo&storeId=12052&catalogId=25005&langId=-1 |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,398,400 |
| Last Split Date | 1,081,728,000 |
| Last Split Factor | 3:2 |
| Long Business Summary | Fossil Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and distributes consumer fashion accessories in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company's products include traditional watches, smartwatches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses. It also manufactures and distributes private label brands. The company offers its products under its proprietary brands, such as FOSSIL, SKAGEN, MICHELE, RELIC, and ZODIAC; and under the licensed brands, including ARMANI EXCHANGE, DIESEL, EMPORIO ARMANI, KATE SPADE NEW YORK, MICHAEL KORS, SKECHERS, and TORY BURCH. It sells its products through company-owned retail and outlet stores, department and specialty retail stores, mass market stores, e-commerce sites, licensed and franchised FOSSIL retail stores, retail concessions, and airlines, as well as operate stores under the WATCH STATION and WSI brands. The company was formerly known as Fossil, Inc. and changed its name to Fossil Group, Inc. in May 2013. Fossil Group, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Richardson, Texas. |
| Long Name | Fossil Group, Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 422,837,088 |
| Market State | POST |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_317037 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,783,123,200 |
| Net Income To Common | -69,867,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,934,400 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 364,881,780 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 4 |
| Open | 7.17 |
| Operating Cashflow | -37,921,000 |
| Operating Margins | 0.03492 |
| Overall Risk | 4 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Peg Ratio | 1.23 |
| Phone | 972 234 2525 |
| Post Market Change | 0.0 |
| Post Market Change Percent | 0.0 |
| Post Market Price | 7.15 |
| Post Market Time | 1,791,921,690 |
| Previous Close | 7.15 |
| Price Eps Current Year | -4.46875 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 4.5025187 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 0.4292004 |
| Profit Margins | -0.07092 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.765 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | strong_buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 1.25 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 0.0 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 0.0 |
| Regular Market Day High | 7.389 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 6.992 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 6.992 - 7.389 |
| Regular Market Open | 7.17 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 7.15 |
| Regular Market Price | 7.15 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,791,921,601 |
| Regular Market Volume | 912,298 |
| Return On Assets | 0.018029999 |
| Return On Equity | -0.66528 |
| Revenue Growth | -0.049 |
| Revenue Per Share | 17.368 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.17502642 |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical |
| Sector Disp | Consumer Cyclical |
| Sector Key | consumer-cyclical |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 2 |
| Shares Outstanding | 59,138,052 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.0956 |
| Shares Short | 5,655,252 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,788,134,400 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 6,957,323 |
| Short Name | Fossil Group, Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.0994 |
| Short Ratio | 7.32 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | TX |
| Symbol | FOSL |
| Target High Price | 12.0 |
| Target Low Price | 7.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 9.25 |
| Target Median Price | 9.0 |
| Total Cash | 78,950,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 1.394 |
| Total Debt | 341,943,008 |
| Total Revenue | 985,174,016 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | -1.27 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 4.6187 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | 2.5313 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | 0.54805464 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 912,298 |
| Website | https://www.fossilgroup.com |
| Zip | 75,080 |