Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Leander, United States | NasdaqGM
22.27 USD
-1.82
(-7.555%) ⇩
(July 13, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
|
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 4:59 a.m. EDT
The narrative surrounding Firefly Aerospace is currently dominated by high-stakes optimism regarding its upcoming public offering and the $13 million NASA Mars subcontract. While the company boasts impressive revenue growth of nearly 45%, the financial reality remains starkly negative: the business is burning cash with operating losses exceeding $200 million annually and negative free cash flow. The balance sheet is fragile, with debt-to-equity nearing 5x and no earnings to support the current valuation multiples. Consequently, the stock is priced entirely on future potential rather than current performance. The options data confirms this speculative nature, with traders placing large bets on extreme moves in both directions, indicating a market waiting for a binary catalyst. However, the statistical forecasting models offer almost no guidance, reflecting the difficulty in predicting such volatile, event-driven assets. For investors, this is a classic high-risk venture play where the thesis relies on successful commercialization of lunar missions to turn the tide on profitability. Until revenue growth translates into sustainable margins and cash flow, the long-term outlook remains neutral due to the inherent execution risks in the aerospace sector. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| AutoTheta ✓ | 0.172991 |
| MSTL_46 | 0.174517 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.176245 |
| AutoETS | 0.176245 |
| MSTL | 0.178297 |
Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: AutoTheta
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 29% |
| H-stat | 6.25 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.717 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -0.48 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Industrials |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 4.796 |
| Revenue per Share | 1.748 |
| Market Cap | 3,657,518,336 |
| Forward P/E | -17.30 |
| Profit Margins | -193.83% |
| Website | https://www.fireflyspace.com |
As of July 11, 2026, 4:59 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for significant volatility rather than a specific directional breakout. Call open interest shows heavy walls at distant strikes ($50, $65, $70, $80, $90), suggesting a belief in a massive moonshot rally, while put open interest clusters tightly around the money ($20-$30 range) with notable volume spikes at $20 and $31. This 'straddle' style positioning implies traders expect a binary event—either a parabolic surge driven by the lunar mission news or a sharp correction—but the lack of directional skew in the immediate term suggests uncertainty about which way the catalyst will push the price.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.6309859 |
| Address1 | 2,203 Scottsdale Drive |
| All Time High | 73.8 |
| All Time Low | 16.0 |
| Ask | 28.32 |
| Ask Size | 2 |
| Audit Risk | 8 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 1.6 - Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 4,190,880 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 7,195,070 |
| Average Volume | 7,195,070 |
| Average Volume10Days | 4,190,880 |
| Bid | 17.0 |
| Bid Size | 2 |
| Board Risk | 10 |
| Book Value | 6.903 |
| City | Leander |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 10 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 22.27 |
| Current Ratio | 2.53 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,782,777,600 |
| Day High | 23.8 |
| Day Low | 22.06 |
| Debt To Equity | 4.796 |
| Display Name | Firefly Aerospace |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,777,928,400 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,777,928,400 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,777,924,800 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,785,873,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,785,873,600 |
| Ebitda | -224,756,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | -1.21569 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | -13.658 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 16.604 |
| Enterprise Value | 3,069,802,240 |
| Eps Current Year | -2.11 |
| Eps Forward | -1.2875 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -4.94 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NGM |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 35.5633 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -13.293301 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.37379265 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -63.09859 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 73.8 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -51.530003 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.6982385 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 16.0 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 6.2700005 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.39187503 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 16.0 - 73.8 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,754,573,400,000 |
| Float Shares | 95,940,836 |
| Forward Eps | -1.2875 |
| Forward P E | -17.297087 |
| Free Cashflow | -146,637,120 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGM |
| Full Time Employees | 1,409 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,782,864,000 |
| Gross Margins | 0.24831 |
| Gross Profits | 45,907,000 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.20403999 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.6011 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 164,235,217 |
| Industry | Aerospace & Defense |
| Industry Disp | Aerospace & Defense |
| Industry Key | aerospace-defense |
| Ipo Expected Date | 2,025-08-07 |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Long Business Summary | Firefly Aerospace Inc. operates as a space and defense technology company and provides mission solutions for national security, government, and commercial customers in United States. The company offers integrated launch and space services technology that is committed to enabling launch, transit, and operations in space. It also provides Launch solutions, such as Alpha, a responsive launch services; and Eclipse, a medium-lift launch vehicles. In addition, the company offers spacecraft solutions platforms, including Blue Ghost, a lunar delivery and operation service; and Elytra, which provides space maneuverability and servicing. Further, it provides software and sensor solutions; national security software and big data processing capabilities; and responsive space services, as well as Ocula, a lunar imaging service. Firefly Aerospace Inc. was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Leander, Texas. |
| Long Name | Firefly Aerospace Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 3,657,518,336 |
| Market State | PRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_684180934 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,774,915,200 |
| Net Income To Common | -358,358,016 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 3,658,339,458 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 9 |
| Open | 23.665 |
| Operating Cashflow | -210,932,000 |
| Operating Margins | -1.15925 |
| Overall Risk | 10 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Phone | 512 893 5570 |
| Pre Market Change | 0.23999977 |
| Pre Market Change Percent | 1.0776819 |
| Pre Market Price | 22.51 |
| Pre Market Time | 1,784,034,366 |
| Previous Close | 24.09 |
| Price Eps Current Year | -10.554503 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 3.2261336 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 19.783308 |
| Profit Margins | -1.93834 |
| Quick Ratio | 2.24 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 1.55556 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | -1.82 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | -7.555 |
| Regular Market Day High | 23.8 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 22.06 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 22.06 - 23.8 |
| Regular Market Open | 23.665 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 24.09 |
| Regular Market Price | 22.27 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,783,972,801 |
| Regular Market Volume | 3,124,724 |
| Return On Assets | -0.1682 |
| Return On Equity | -0.62148 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.448 |
| Revenue Per Share | 1.748 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20365608 |
| Sector | Industrials |
| Sector Disp | Industrials |
| Sector Key | industrials |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 7 |
| Shares Outstanding | 164,235,217 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.080299996 |
| Shares Short | 13,190,080 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,780,012,800 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 11,413,957 |
| Short Name | Firefly Aerospace Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.13430001 |
| Short Ratio | 1.63 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | TX |
| Symbol | FLY |
| Target High Price | 65.0 |
| Target Low Price | 34.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 48.11111 |
| Target Median Price | 50.0 |
| Total Cash | 551,625,984 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 3.443 |
| Total Debt | 52,990,000 |
| Total Revenue | 184,879,008 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | -4.94 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 28.37165 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -6.10165 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.21506152 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 3,124,724 |
| Website | https://www.fireflyspace.com |
| Zip | 78,641 |