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Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT)

Real Estate | REIT - Diversified | New York, United States | NYSE
4.80 USD -0.07 (-1.339%) ⇩ (Oct. 14, 2026, 11:27 a.m. EDT)
Short-term:★★☆☆☆Long-term:★⯪☆☆☆Dividends:★★★☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 5:44 a.m. EDT

The investment case for Empire State Realty Trust is currently fractured by deteriorating fundamentals and a stark disconnect between its valuation and reality. While the stock trades at a discount to book value, the underlying business is showing signs of distress: revenue growth is sluggish at just 3.2%, and profitability metrics are abysmal, with a return on equity of merely 0.5% and profit margins under 1%. The market has seemingly priced in a structural decline, evidenced by the massive put options wall built by speculators to catch falling knives. Although the 3% dividend yield is attractive on paper, the payout ratio of 7% suggests the company is retaining almost all earnings while struggling to generate capital, making the yield a potential trap rather than a safety. With analysts cutting targets and guidance being revised downward, the consensus view is that the current price reflects a much weaker future, leaving little room for a quick recovery.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoARIMA ✓0.199503
AutoTheta0.225861
AutoETS0.225928
MSTL0.229898

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoARIMA

Forecast Reliability
Score 41%
H-stat 4.51
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.781
Excess Kurtosis -0.08
Attribute Value
Sector Real Estate
Ex Dividend Date 2026-09-14
Last Dividend Date 2026-09-14
Debt to Equity Ratio 124.458
Revenue per Share 4.598
Market Cap 1,468,928,384
Trailing P/E 239.75
Forward P/E 79.92
Beta 1.42
Profit Margins 0.93%
Website https://www.esrtreit.com

As of Oct. 10, 2026, 5:44 a.m. EDT: Speculators are heavily positioned for downside protection, with massive open interest in deep out-of-the-money puts (strikes 2.50 and 5.00) expiring in late 2026 and early 2027. This 'insurance' positioning suggests a fear of significant further declines. Conversely, call activity is sparse, dominated by ATM anchors and a single large block at the 7.50 strike, indicating limited speculative appetite for immediate rallies despite the low implied volatility environment.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.83% 2.66% 1.90% 1.89%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-09-15 0.035 0.827423
2026-06-15 0.035 0.660377
2026-03-13 0.035 0.675676
2025-12-15 0.035 0.497866
2025-09-15 0.035 0.449294
2025-06-13 0.035 0.408878
2025-03-14 0.035 0.436409
2024-12-16 0.035 0.317316
2024-09-16 0.035 0.329877
2024-06-14 0.035 0.375536
2024-03-14 0.035 0.363448
2023-12-15 0.035 0.364583
2023-09-14 0.035 0.396376
2023-06-14 0.035 0.502152
2023-03-14 0.035 0.531108
2022-12-16 0.035 0.517751
2022-09-14 0.035 0.482759
2022-06-14 0.035 0.523169
2022-03-14 0.035 0.379198
2021-12-17 0.035 0.395928
2021-09-14 0.035 0.351759
2021-06-14 0.035 0.275808
2020-06-18 0.105 1.517341
2020-03-13 0.105 1.054217
2019-12-20 0.105 0.761974
2019-09-13 0.105 0.734780
2019-06-13 0.105 0.690789
2019-03-14 0.105 0.653391
2018-12-14 0.105 0.683149
2018-09-13 0.105 0.615475
2018-06-14 0.105 0.620934
2018-03-14 0.105 0.614035
2017-12-14 0.105 0.512695
2017-09-14 0.105 0.512695
2017-06-13 0.105 0.492958
2017-03-13 0.105 0.516478
2016-12-13 0.105 0.516987
2016-09-15 0.105 0.508475
2016-06-13 0.105 0.548017
2016-03-14 0.085 0.509287
2015-12-11 0.085 0.483229
2015-09-11 0.085 0.509592
2015-06-11 0.085 0.476725
2015-03-11 0.085 0.483504
2014-12-11 0.085 0.494474
2014-09-11 0.085 0.526968
2014-06-11 0.085 0.513906
2014-03-12 0.085 0.573937
2013-12-12 0.080 0.567376
Additional Data
dividendYield 2.88
exDividendDate 2026-09-15
trailingAnnualDividendRate 0.14
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.028806584
lastDividendValue 0.035
lastDividendDate 2026-09-15
dividendDate 2026-09-30

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.34324324
Address1 111 West 33rd Street
Address2 12th Floor
All Time High 22.31
All Time Low 3.93
Ask 4.79
Ask Size 10,800
Audit Risk 7
Average Analyst Rating 2.7 - Hold
Average Daily Volume10 Day 5,178,870
Average Daily Volume3 Month 3,314,076
Average Volume 3,314,076
Average Volume10Days 5,178,870
Beta 1.415
Bid 4.78
Bid Size 4,700
Board Risk 5
Book Value 6.014
City New York
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 2
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 4.795
Current Ratio 1.452
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,790,726,400
Day High 4.83
Day Low 4.77
Debt To Equity 124.458
Display Name Empire State Realty Trust
Dividend Date 1,790,726,400
Dividend Yield 2.88
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,793,736,000
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,793,736,000
Earnings Timestamp 1,793,649,600
Earnings Timestamp End 1,793,649,600
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,793,649,600
Ebitda 320,078,016
Ebitda Margins 0.40888
Enterprise To Ebitda 11.633
Enterprise To Revenue 4.757
Enterprise Value 3,723,504,640
Eps Forward 0.06
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 0.02
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,789,430,400
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 20
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fax 212 850 2751
Fifty Day Average 4.4702
Fifty Day Average Change 0.3248
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.07265894
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -34.324326
Fifty Two Week High 8.04
Fifty Two Week High Change -3.245
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.40360695
Fifty Two Week Low 3.93
Fifty Two Week Low Change 0.865
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.22010177
Fifty Two Week Range 3.93 - 8.04
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,380,720,600,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 1.65
Float Shares 129,068,659
Forward Eps 0.06
Forward P E 79.91667
Free Cashflow 284,912,640
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 642
Fullday Change 0.11460018
Fullday Change Percent 2.4228368
Fullday Price 4.795
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,790,812,800
Gross Margins 0.52306
Gross Profits 409,462,016
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.07672
Held Percent Institutions 1.02111
Implied Shares Outstanding 306,345,850
Industry REIT - Diversified
Industry Disp REIT - Diversified
Industry Key reit-diversified
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,789,430,400
Last Dividend Value 0.035
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. is a NYC-focused REIT that owns and operates a portfolio of well-leased, top of tier, modernized, amenitized, and well-located office, retail, and multifamily assets. The Company is a recognized leader in energy efficiency and indoor environmental quality. As of June 30, 2026, ESRT's portfolio is comprised of approximately 7.5 million rentable square feet of office space, 0.8 million rentable square feet of retail space and 743 residential units. Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. was established on July 29, 2011, and was incorporated in 2011 in Maryland and is based in New York.
Long Name Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 1,468,928,384
Market State REGULAR
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_170205476
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common 3,073,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 715,037,839
Number Of Analyst Opinions 5
Open 4.82
Operating Cashflow 227,643,008
Operating Margins 0.16726999
Overall Risk 4
Payout Ratio 7.0
Peg Ratio 37.36
Phone 212 850 2600
Previous Close 4.86
Price Hint 4
Price To Book 0.7973063
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 1.8764526
Profit Margins 0.00929
Quick Ratio 1.303
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key hold
Recommendation Mean 2.66667
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.06500006
Regular Market Change Percent -1.3388271
Regular Market Day High 4.83
Regular Market Day Low 4.77
Regular Market Day Range 4.77 - 4.83
Regular Market Open 4.82
Regular Market Previous Close 4.86
Regular Market Price 4.795
Regular Market Time 1,791,991,671
Regular Market Volume 1,046,452
Return On Assets 0.02052
Return On Equity 0.0051700003
Revenue Growth 0.032
Revenue Per Share 4.598
Sand P52 Week Change 0.17004645
Sector Real Estate
Sector Disp Real Estate
Sector Key real-estate
Share Holder Rights Risk 6
Shares Outstanding 172,165,643
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0637
Shares Short 11,030,803
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,788,134,400
Shares Short Prior Month 9,515,699
Short Name Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.
Short Percent Of Float 0.0776
Short Ratio 2.35
Source Interval 15
State NY
Symbol ESRT
Target High Price 6.0
Target Low Price 5.0
Target Mean Price 5.2
Target Median Price 5.0
Total Cash 96,047,000
Total Cash Per Share 0.555
Total Debt 2,227,439,104
Total Revenue 782,822,016
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.14
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.028806584
Trailing Eps 0.02
Trailing P E 239.75002
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 5.398
Two Hundred Day Average Change -0.6029997
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.111707985
Type Disp Equity
Volume 1,046,452
Website https://www.esrtreit.com
Zip 10,120-1220