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Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)

Financial Services | Insurance Brokers | Erie, United States | NasdaqGS
247.17 USD -4.64 (-1.843%) ⇩ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
Short-term:★★★★☆Long-term:★★★⯪☆Dividends:★★★⯪☆
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 3:12 a.m. EDT

The immediate outlook is aggressively bullish, driven by a powerful technical rebound where the stock has recovered nearly 20% in just two weeks, snapping a five-month losing streak. This momentum is confirmed by the options market, which shows heavy speculation on a move toward $300+, while protective puts are virtually absent. Fundamentally, the company remains a high-quality insurer with exceptional returns on equity (25.9%) and a fortress balance sheet, though it is currently trading at a premium valuation relative to its modest revenue growth. The recent price action suggests the market is pricing in a resolution to the previous year's decline, making this a compelling momentum play despite the statistical forecasting models showing low confidence due to recent volatility.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoETS ✓0.069583
MSTL0.076545
AutoTheta0.098104
AutoARIMA0.191622

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoETS

Forecast Reliability
Score 38%
H-stat 10.38
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.029
Excess Kurtosis 0.24
Attribute Value
Sector Financial Services
Ex Dividend Date 2026-07-06
Last Dividend Date 2026-07-06
Debt to Equity Ratio 2.108
Revenue per Share 78.214
Market Cap 12,924,486,656
Trailing P/E 22.61
Forward P/E 17.64
Beta 0.29
Profit Margins 13.97%
Website https://www.erieinsurance.com

As of July 11, 2026, 3:12 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for a significant upside breakout, evidenced by massive open interest in deep out-of-the-money calls (strikes 330-400) and a volume spike in ATM calls for September expiration. Conversely, put activity is negligible and concentrated far below current prices, indicating a lack of near-term downside hedging. Implied volatility is elevated on deep OTM calls, suggesting a speculative bet on a sharp rally rather than a defensive stance.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.57% 2.10% 1.63% 1.86%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-07-07 1.463000 0.570660
2026-04-07 1.463000 0.588638
2026-01-06 1.463000 0.512416
2025-10-06 1.365000 0.431702
2025-07-08 1.365000 0.400399
2025-04-07 1.365000 0.358221
2025-01-07 1.365000 0.339333
2024-10-07 1.275000 0.244262
2024-07-09 1.275000 0.357584
2024-04-08 1.275000 0.319966
2024-01-05 1.275000 0.386586
2023-10-04 1.190000 0.394746
2023-07-05 1.190000 0.577894
2023-04-04 1.190000 0.520196
2023-01-04 1.190000 0.491269
2022-10-04 1.110000 0.473954
2022-07-05 1.110000 0.572933
2022-04-04 1.110000 0.620979
2022-01-04 1.110000 0.579483
2021-10-04 1.035000 0.572804
2021-07-02 1.035000 0.538754
2021-04-05 1.035000 0.464375
2021-01-04 1.035000 0.429621
2020-12-18 2.000000 0.807591
2020-10-02 0.965000 0.452521
2020-07-06 0.965000 0.506216
2020-04-03 0.965000 0.587913
2020-01-06 0.965000 0.575913
2019-10-04 0.900000 0.495595
2019-07-08 0.900000 0.339213
2019-04-05 0.900000 0.514904
2019-01-07 0.900000 0.672696
2018-10-05 0.840000 0.677638
2018-07-05 0.840000 0.719117
2018-04-05 0.840000 0.722518
2018-01-05 0.840000 0.706001
2017-10-04 0.783000 0.660704
2017-07-03 0.783000 0.616196
2017-04-03 0.783000 0.647803
2017-01-03 0.783000 0.699544
2016-10-03 0.730000 0.728543
2016-07-01 0.730000 0.746879
2016-04-04 0.730000 0.787232
2015-12-31 0.730000 0.763279
2015-10-01 0.681000 0.836918
2015-07-02 0.681000 0.816743
2015-04-02 0.681000 0.787556
2015-01-02 0.681000 0.762257
2014-09-30 0.635000 0.837620
2014-07-01 0.635000 0.842175
2014-04-03 0.635000 0.898543
2014-01-03 0.635000 0.881455
2013-10-02 0.593000 0.830067
2013-07-02 0.593000 0.739217
2013-04-03 0.593000 0.794480
2012-12-05 2.593000 3.778231
2012-10-03 0.553000 0.871965
2012-07-03 0.553000 0.767416
2012-04-03 0.553000 0.718835
2012-01-03 0.553000 0.720427
2011-10-04 0.515000 0.716971
2011-07-01 0.515000 0.728533
2011-04-04 0.515000 0.713791
2011-01-03 0.515000 0.780303
2010-10-01 0.480000 0.866270
2010-07-01 0.480000 1.081568
2010-04-01 0.480000 1.127025
2009-12-31 0.480000 1.230138
2009-10-01 0.450000 1.234568
2009-07-01 0.450000 1.260151
2009-04-01 0.450000 1.328217
2008-12-31 0.450000 1.195854
2008-10-01 0.440000 1.007787
2008-07-01 0.440000 0.964912
2008-04-02 0.440000 0.838894
2008-01-02 0.440000 0.861731
2007-10-02 0.400000 0.658545
2007-07-03 0.400000 0.740878
2007-04-03 0.400000 0.757002
2007-01-03 0.400000 0.695410
2006-10-03 0.360000 0.690846
2006-07-03 0.360000 0.695787
2006-04-03 0.360000 0.681947
2006-01-03 0.360000 0.677838
2005-10-03 0.325000 0.615647
2005-07-01 0.325000 0.606343
2005-04-04 0.325000 0.627413
2005-01-04 0.325000 0.623800
2004-10-01 0.215000 0.420579
2004-07-01 0.215000 0.457447
2004-04-01 0.215000 0.443756
2003-12-31 0.215000 0.507315
2003-10-02 0.190000 0.486805
2003-07-01 0.190000 0.460829
2003-04-02 0.190000 0.517711
2003-01-02 0.190000 0.519409
2002-10-02 0.170000 0.404762
2002-07-02 0.170000 0.414938
2002-04-03 0.170000 0.418204
2002-01-02 0.170000 0.451527
2001-10-03 0.153000 0.382500
2001-07-03 0.153000 0.454276
2001-04-04 0.153000 0.555556
2001-01-03 0.153000 0.527586
2000-10-04 0.135000 0.458599
2000-07-03 0.135000 0.450000
2000-04-04 0.135000 0.415385
2000-01-04 0.135000 0.453782
1999-10-04 0.120000 0.399168
1999-07-01 0.120000 0.444444
1999-04-01 0.120000 0.440367
1999-01-04 0.120000 0.367816
1998-10-02 0.108000 0.396330
1998-07-01 0.108000 0.375652
1998-04-02 0.108000 0.353374
1998-01-02 0.108000 0.363025
1997-10-02 0.095000 0.281481
1997-07-01 0.095000 0.274368
1997-04-02 0.095000 0.316667
1997-01-02 0.095000 0.316667
1996-10-02 0.082000 0.234286
1996-07-02 0.082000 0.182222
1996-04-02 0.083333 0.316454
1996-01-03 0.065000 0.314516
Additional Data
dividendRate 5.85
dividendYield 2.32
exDividendDate 2026-07-07
trailingAnnualDividendRate 5.655
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.02245741
lastDividendValue 1.463
lastDividendDate 2026-07-07
dividendDate 2026-07-21

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.27405077
Address1 100 Erie Insurance Place
All Time High 547.0
All Time Low 16.0
Ask 269.91
Ask Size 2
Average Daily Volume10 Day 241,870
Average Daily Volume3 Month 223,863
Average Volume 223,863
Average Volume10Days 241,870
Beta 0.286
Bid 233.2
Bid Size 2
Book Value 45.009
City Erie
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 247.17
Current Ratio 1.29
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 257.97
Day Low 245.9
Debt To Equity 2.108
Dividend Date 1,784,592,000
Dividend Rate 5.85
Dividend Yield 2.32
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,785,528,000
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,785,528,000
Earnings Growth 0.087
Earnings Quarterly Growth 0.087
Earnings Timestamp 1,785,441,600
Earnings Timestamp End 1,785,441,600
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,785,441,600
Ebitda 826,961,984
Ebitda Margins 0.2022
Enterprise To Ebitda 15.347
Enterprise To Revenue 3.103
Enterprise Value 12,691,045,376
Eps Current Year 12.64
Eps Forward 14.01
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 10.93
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,783,382,400
Exchange NMS
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fax 814 870 2717
Fifty Day Average 225.6178
Fifty Day Average Change 21.5522
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.095525265
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -27.405077
Fifty Two Week High 380.67
Fifty Two Week High Change -133.50002
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.3506975
Fifty Two Week Low 204.63
Fifty Two Week Low Change 42.539993
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.20788737
Fifty Two Week Range 204.63 - 380.67
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 812,640,600,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 1.8
Float Shares 25,138,354
Forward Eps 14.01
Forward P E 17.642397
Free Cashflow 447,472,992
Full Exchange Name NasdaqGS
Full Time Employees 6,667
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Gross Margins 0.17913
Gross Profits 732,595,008
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.45461
Held Percent Institutions 0.4441
Implied Shares Outstanding 52,289,868
Industry Insurance Brokers
Industry Disp Insurance Brokers
Industry Key insurance-brokers
Ir Website http://www.erieinsurance.com/about/investors.aspx
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,783,382,400
Last Dividend Value 1.463
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Last Split Date 831,945,600
Last Split Factor 3:1
Long Business Summary Erie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. It provides issuance and renewal services; sales related services, including agent compensation and sales and advertising support services; underwriting services that include underwriting and policy processing; and other services consist of customer services and administrative support services, as well as information technology services. The company was incorporated in 1925 and is based in Erie, Pennsylvania.
Long Name Erie Indemnity Company
Market us_market
Market Cap 12,924,486,656
Market State PRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_387618
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common 571,392,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 13,164,497,167
Open 253.64
Operating Cashflow 660,430,976
Operating Margins 0.16876
Payout Ratio 0.5179
Peg Ratio 2.67
Phone 814 870 2000
Previous Close 251.81
Price Eps Current Year 19.554588
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 5.4915686
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 3.160199
Profit Margins 0.13971
Quick Ratio 1.157
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key none
Region US
Regular Market Change -4.64
Regular Market Change Percent -1.84266
Regular Market Day High 257.97
Regular Market Day Low 245.9
Regular Market Day Range 245.9 - 257.97
Regular Market Open 253.64
Regular Market Previous Close 251.81
Regular Market Price 247.17
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,801
Regular Market Volume 209,118
Return On Assets 0.14840999
Return On Equity 0.2585
Revenue Growth 0.023
Revenue Per Share 78.214
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20847368
Sector Financial Services
Sector Disp Financial Services
Sector Key financial-services
Shares Outstanding 46,189,068
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0559
Shares Short 2,923,399
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 2,555,090
Short Name Erie Indemnity Company
Short Percent Of Float 0.1167
Short Ratio 13.28
Source Interval 15
State PA
Symbol ERIE
Total Cash 283,062,016
Total Cash Per Share 5.413
Total Debt 49,621,000
Total Revenue 4,089,769,984
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 5.655
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.02245741
Trailing Eps 10.93
Trailing P E 22.613905
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 266.7885
Two Hundred Day Average Change -19.618515
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.07353583
Type Disp Equity
Volume 209,118
Website https://www.erieinsurance.com
Zip 16,530