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Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC)

Real Estate | REIT - Mortgage | Old Greenwich, United States | NYSE
11.77 USD -0.13 (-1.091%) ⇩ (Oct. 16, 2026, 11:04 a.m. EDT)
Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★⯪☆☆Dividends:★★☆☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 2:58 a.m. EDT

The immediate outlook is murky, caught between a technically broken trend and a massive dividend yield. The stock is trading well below its 50-day and 200-day averages, confirming a persistent downtrend that the statistical forecast models also flag with a neutral-to-negative lean. However, the 13.4% dividend yield acts as a powerful magnet, offering significant income despite the capital appreciation risks. The payout ratio is dangerously close to 97%, indicating the company is distributing nearly all its earnings, which leaves little room for error if profitability dips further. While the balance sheet shows high leverage typical for a mortgage REIT, the lack of recent price momentum and the defensive positioning in the options market suggest investors are waiting for a catalyst to reverse the slide. For now, the thesis rests entirely on the yield, making it a speculative income play rather than a growth investment.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoETS ✓0.077225
AutoARIMA0.077468
MSTL0.078822
AutoTheta0.078934

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoETS

Forecast Reliability
Score 49%
H-stat 108.25
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.108
Excess Kurtosis -1.49
Attribute Value
Sector Real Estate
Ex Dividend Date 2026-10-29
Last Dividend Date 2026-09-29
Debt to Equity Ratio 928.78
Revenue per Share 3.77
Market Cap 1,545,691,904
Trailing P/E 7.31
Forward P/E 5.95
Beta 0.97
Profit Margins 51.50%
Website https://www.ellingtonfinancial.com

As of Oct. 10, 2026, 2:58 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning defensively with heavy put volume and open interest concentrated at strikes below the current price ($10.00 and $12.50), while call activity remains sparse and focused on the money. Implied volatility is significantly elevated for downside protection compared to upside speculation, suggesting a market expectation of continued weakness or a 'floor' test rather than a rally.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
1.10% 11.98% 12.56% 12.57%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-09-30 0.13 1.098901
2026-08-31 0.13 0.971599
2026-07-31 0.13 0.978916
2026-06-30 0.13 0.955180
2026-05-29 0.13 0.957996
2026-04-30 0.13 0.981132
2026-03-31 0.13 1.097046
2026-02-27 0.13 1.046699
2026-01-30 0.13 1.011673
2025-12-31 0.13 0.957290
2025-11-28 0.13 0.948905
2025-10-31 0.13 0.975976
2025-09-30 0.13 1.001541
2025-08-29 0.13 0.953079
2025-07-31 0.13 1.024429
2025-06-30 0.13 1.000770
2025-05-30 0.13 1.034208
2025-04-30 0.13 0.997698
2025-03-31 0.13 0.980392
2025-02-28 0.13 0.905923
2025-01-31 0.13 1.035032
2024-12-31 0.13 1.072607
2024-11-29 0.13 1.051780
2024-10-31 0.13 1.075269
2024-09-30 0.13 1.008534
2024-08-30 0.13 0.988593
2024-07-31 0.13 1.024429
2024-06-28 0.13 1.076159
2024-05-31 0.13 1.072607
2024-04-29 0.13 1.124567
2024-03-27 0.13 1.119724
2024-02-28 0.15 1.374885
2024-01-30 0.15 1.195219
2023-12-28 0.09 0.699844
2023-12-07 0.06 0.468750
2023-11-29 0.15 1.152074
2023-10-30 0.15 1.269036
2023-09-28 0.15 1.219512
2023-08-30 0.15 1.123595
2023-07-28 0.15 1.097293
2023-06-29 0.15 1.091703
2023-05-30 0.15 1.209677
2023-04-27 0.15 1.190476
2023-03-30 0.15 1.244813
2023-02-27 0.15 1.169135
2023-01-30 0.15 1.111935
2022-12-29 0.15 1.195219
2022-11-29 0.15 1.107011
2022-10-28 0.15 1.125281
2022-09-29 0.15 1.299827
2022-08-30 0.15 1.025992
2022-07-28 0.15 0.925926
2022-06-29 0.15 1.028101
2022-05-27 0.15 0.970874
2022-04-28 0.15 0.923645
2022-03-30 0.15 0.839396
2022-02-25 0.15 0.854701
2022-01-28 0.15 0.854701
2021-12-29 0.15 0.875657
2021-11-29 0.15 0.874126
2021-10-28 0.15 0.814775
2021-09-29 0.15 0.816104
2021-08-30 0.15 0.813449
2021-07-29 0.15 0.823723
2021-06-29 0.15 0.785340
2021-05-27 0.15 0.798722
2021-04-29 0.14 0.777778
2021-03-30 0.10 0.618047
2021-02-25 0.10 0.640205
2021-01-28 0.10 0.657462
2020-12-30 0.10 0.674309
2020-11-27 0.10 0.672043
2020-10-29 0.09 0.725806
2020-09-29 0.09 0.724638
2020-08-28 0.09 0.706991
2020-07-30 0.09 0.748752
2020-06-29 0.09 0.764007
2020-05-28 0.08 0.769971
2020-04-29 0.08 0.733272
2020-03-30 0.15 2.622378
2020-02-27 0.15 0.880799
2020-01-30 0.15 0.817439
2019-12-30 0.14 0.763359
2019-11-27 0.14 0.768386
2019-10-30 0.14 0.762527
2019-09-27 0.14 0.776484
2019-08-29 0.14 0.799087
2019-07-30 0.14 0.790514
2019-06-27 0.14 0.791408
2019-05-30 0.14 0.795455
2019-04-29 0.14 0.773054
2019-03-28 0.14 0.787402
2019-02-28 0.41 2.465424
2018-11-29 0.41 2.629891
2018-08-30 0.41 2.495435
2018-05-31 0.41 2.572146
2018-02-28 0.41 2.903683
2017-11-30 0.41 2.742475
2017-08-30 0.45 2.871729
2017-05-30 0.45 2.691388
2017-02-27 0.45 2.831970
2016-11-29 0.45 2.801993
2016-08-30 0.50 2.891845
2016-05-27 0.50 2.865329
2016-02-26 0.50 2.847380
2015-11-27 0.50 2.820079
2015-08-28 0.65 3.571428
2015-05-28 0.65 3.277862
2015-02-25 0.65 3.222608
2014-11-26 0.77 3.571429
2014-08-27 0.77 3.109855
2014-05-28 0.77 3.201663
2014-02-26 0.77 3.208333
2013-11-26 0.77 3.317536
2013-08-28 0.77 3.507973
2013-05-29 0.77 3.151862
2013-02-27 1.52 6.080000
2012-11-28 0.70 3.173164
2012-08-29 0.70 3.200731
2012-05-30 0.70 3.401361
2012-02-28 0.40 2.065049
2011-11-29 0.40 2.352941
2011-08-30 0.40 2.258611
2011-05-27 0.40 1.823985
2011-02-25 1.31 5.695652
2010-11-29 0.80 3.595506
Additional Data
dividendRate 1.56
dividendYield 13.11
exDividendDate 2026-10-30
trailingAnnualDividendRate 1.56
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.13109243
lastDividendValue 0.13
lastDividendDate 2026-09-30
dividendDate 2026-11-30

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.125
Address1 53 Forest Avenue
All Time High 26.99
All Time Low 3.24
Ask 11.8
Ask Size 600
Audit Risk 8
Average Analyst Rating 2.0 - Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 1,895,110
Average Daily Volume3 Month 1,345,217
Average Volume 1,345,217
Average Volume10Days 1,895,110
Beta 0.967
Bid 11.79
Bid Size 600
Board Risk 4
Book Value 13.678
City Old Greenwich
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 5
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 11.7701
Current Ratio 7.625
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,790,726,400
Day High 12.0
Day Low 11.7612
Debt To Equity 928.78
Display Name Ellington Financial
Dividend Date 1,795,996,800
Dividend Rate 1.56
Dividend Yield 13.11
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,786,114,800
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,786,114,800
Earnings Growth -0.033
Earnings Quarterly Growth 0.173
Earnings Timestamp 1,786,046,400
Earnings Timestamp End 1,793,822,400
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,793,822,400
Ebitda Margins 0.0
Enterprise To Revenue 44.878
Enterprise Value 19,358,267,392
Eps Current Year 2.09025
Eps Forward 1.97879
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 1.61
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,793,318,400
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 20
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 12.8032
Fifty Day Average Change -1.0331001
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.08069078
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -12.5
Fifty Two Week High 14.12
Fifty Two Week High Change -2.3499002
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.16642353
Fifty Two Week Low 11.28
Fifty Two Week Low Change 0.4900999
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.043448575
Fifty Two Week Range 11.28 - 14.12
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,286,544,600,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 12.2
Float Shares 125,959,065
Forward Eps 1.97879
Forward P E 5.9481297
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 500
Fullday Change -0.12989998
Fullday Change Percent -1.0911472
Fullday Price 11.7701
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,790,812,800
Gross Margins 1.0
Gross Profits 431,351,008
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.025840001
Held Percent Institutions 0.53439
Implied Shares Outstanding 131,323,605
Industry REIT - Mortgage
Industry Disp REIT - Mortgage
Industry Key reit-mortgage
Is Earnings Date Estimate 1
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,790,726,400
Last Dividend Value 0.13
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Ellington Financial Inc., through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, acquires and manages mortgage-related, consumer-related, corporate-related, and other financial assets in the United States. It operates in two segments, Investment Portfolio and Longbridge. The company acquires and manages residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) backed by prime jumbo, Alt-A, non-QM, manufactured housing, subprime residential, and single-family-rental mortgage loans; RMBS for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the U.S. government agency or the U.S. government-sponsored entity; residential and commercial mortgage loans; residential mortgage-backed securities; commercial mortgage-backed securities; consumer loans and asset-backed securities backed by consumer loans; investments referencing mortgage servicing rights on traditional forward mortgage loans; collateralized loan obligations; non-mortgage- and mortgage-related derivatives; debt and equity investments in loan origination companies; and other strategic investments. It also offers reverse mortgage loans, including associated financial assets, financing, hedging, and allocated expenses. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust (REIT) for federal income tax purposes that intends to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income as dividends to shareholders. Ellington Financial Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Old Greenwich, Connecticut.
Long Name Ellington Financial Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 1,545,691,904
Market State REGULAR
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_35699641
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common 194,040,992
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 1,599,492,460
Number Of Analyst Opinions 7
Open 11.97
Operating Cashflow -617,648,000
Operating Margins 0.55869997
Overall Risk 4
Payout Ratio 0.96889997
Phone 203 409 3575
Previous Close 11.9
Price Eps Current Year 5.630953
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.86051315
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 3.5833738
Profit Margins 0.51501
Quick Ratio 7.604
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key buy
Recommendation Mean 2.0
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.12989998
Regular Market Change Percent -1.0911472
Regular Market Day High 12.0
Regular Market Day Low 11.7612
Regular Market Day Range 11.7612 - 12.0
Regular Market Open 11.97
Regular Market Previous Close 11.9
Regular Market Price 11.7701
Regular Market Time 1,792,163,047
Regular Market Volume 221,885
Return On Assets 0.01186
Return On Equity 0.12247
Revenue Growth 0.338
Revenue Per Share 3.77
Sand P52 Week Change 0.16207206
Sector Real Estate
Sector Disp Real Estate
Sector Key real-estate
Share Holder Rights Risk 4
Shares Outstanding 128,887,386
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.070199996
Shares Short 9,045,875
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,788,134,400
Shares Short Prior Month 7,253,571
Short Name Ellington Financial Inc.
Short Percent Of Float 0.0874
Short Ratio 6.44
Source Interval 15
State CT
Symbol EFC
Target High Price 16.0
Target Low Price 14.0
Target Mean Price 14.64286
Target Median Price 14.5
Total Cash 1,000,052,992
Total Cash Per Share 7.759
Total Debt 18,570,352,640
Total Revenue 431,351,008
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 1.56
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.13109243
Trailing Eps 1.61
Trailing P E 7.310621
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 13.0041
Two Hundred Day Average Change -1.2340002
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.094893165
Type Disp Equity
Volume 221,885
Website https://www.ellingtonfinancial.com
Zip 6,870