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Ecopetrol S.A. (EC)

Energy | Oil & Gas Integrated | Bogotá, Colombia | NYSE
15.88 USD +0.30 (1.926%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 15.92 +0.04 (0.252%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 7:55 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★☆☆☆Dividends:★★★☆☆
Hot Take | July 11, 2026, 3:07 a.m. EDT

The immediate outlook for Ecopetrol is clouded by a disconnect between its defensive technical setup and aggressive speculative hedging. While the stock has recovered to trade above its 200-day moving average—a sign of medium-term resilience—the options market is screaming caution. The sheer volume of out-of-the-money puts indicates that traders are betting on a significant downside event, pricing in a crash that hasn't happened yet. This defensive positioning, combined with a statistical forecast model showing low confidence, suggests the short-term path is volatile and uncertain rather than a clear momentum play. Looking further ahead, the fundamental picture is mixed. The company is generating substantial free cash flow and maintains a reasonable payout ratio, supporting a healthy dividend yield that currently sits around 4%. However, the growth engine appears stalled; revenue and earnings are both contracting, and the multi-year price trajectory shows a net decline over the last nine years. Although the most recent annual drop was isolated, the persistent lack of top-line growth and the depressed valuation relative to historical highs suggest the market is struggling to see a turnaround story. The balance sheet is not a fortress, and without a return to double-digit revenue growth, the 'value' case remains fragile. For now, the stock offers income but lacks the capital appreciation catalyst needed to justify a strong buy rating.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoTheta ✓0.072408
AutoETS0.079674
AutoARIMA0.079675
MSTL0.081818

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta

Forecast Reliability
Score 42%
H-stat 6.30
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.385
Excess Kurtosis -1.01
Attribute Value
Sector Energy
Ex Dividend Date 2026-04-28
Last Dividend Date 2026-04-28
Debt to Equity Ratio 103.173
Market Cap 32,646,656,000
Trailing P/E 11.34
Forward P/E 10.16
Beta -0.01
Profit Margins 7.51%
Website https://www.ecopetrol.com.co

As of July 11, 2026, 3:07 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning defensively with heavy out-of-the-money put open interest relative to calls, creating a skewed risk profile where downside protection is significantly cheaper and more abundant than upside leverage. The implied volatility surface shows elevated premiums for deep out-of-the-money puts, suggesting a market consensus expecting a potential sharp drop rather than a steady rally, despite the stock trading above its 200-day moving average.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
4.80% 4.80% 14.60% 13.62%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-04-29 0.661 4.796807
2025-04-28 0.506 5.974026
2025-04-03 0.486 5.089005
2024-06-25 0.800 7.162041
2024-04-04 0.800 6.595218
2023-12-19 0.828 6.905755
2023-09-26 0.828 7.282322
2023-04-25 0.828 8.431772
2022-06-28 0.861 7.500000
2022-04-19 1.491 8.348264
2021-04-20 0.093 0.747588
2020-04-21 0.894 9.933333
2019-12-26 0.535 2.639368
2019-04-23 1.444 7.435633
2018-04-17 0.637 3.020389
2017-04-25 0.161 1.709129
2015-06-17 1.034 7.923372
2014-04-22 2.646 7.159091
2013-04-09 3.206 6.309781
2012-04-19 3.410 5.636364
2011-10-07 0.538 1.334325
2011-07-08 0.540 1.276294
2011-04-07 0.524 1.259918
2010-11-30 0.331 0.823998
2010-08-10 0.305 0.828129
2010-04-12 0.329 1.176681
2009-11-30 0.704 2.837566
2009-08-12 0.635 2.356215
2009-04-13 0.297 1.659218
2008-11-28 0.243 1.383039
2008-10-10 0.262 1.455556
Additional Data
dividendRate 0.65
dividendYield 4.17
exDividendDate 2026-04-29
trailingAnnualDividendRate 0.0
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.0
lastDividendValue 0.661
lastDividendDate 2026-04-29
dividendDate 2026-05-07

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.74663675
Address1 Carrera 13 No. 36 – 24
All Time High 67.92
All Time Low 5.16
Ask 15.92
Ask Size 1,300
Average Analyst Rating 3.6 - Underperform
Average Daily Volume10 Day 2,447,810
Average Daily Volume3 Month 3,068,368
Average Volume 3,068,368
Average Volume10Days 2,447,810
Beta -0.01
Bid 15.91
Bid Size 900
Book Value 1,963.047
City Bogotá
Country Colombia
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 15.88
Current Ratio 1.259
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 15.99
Day Low 15.5
Debt To Equity 103.173
Display Name Ecopetrol
Dividend Date 1,778,112,000
Dividend Rate 0.65
Dividend Yield 4.17
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,778,680,800
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,778,680,800
Earnings Growth -0.077
Earnings Quarterly Growth -0.077
Earnings Timestamp 1,778,616,000
Earnings Timestamp End 1,778,616,000
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,778,616,000
Ebitda 43,172,000,432,128
Ebitda Margins 0.36914003
Eps Current Year 1.82842
Eps Forward 1.56249
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 1.4
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,777,420,800
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 14.6778
Fifty Day Average Change 1.2021999
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.081906006
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 74.66367
Fifty Two Week High 17.75
Fifty Two Week High Change -1.8699999
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.1053521
Fifty Two Week Low 8.27
Fifty Two Week Low Change 7.6099997
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.9201934
Fifty Two Week Range 8.27 - 17.75
Financial Currency COP
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,221,744,600,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 14.1
Float Shares 473,170,922
Forward Eps 1.56249
Forward P E 10.163265
Free Cashflow 8,922,439,090,176
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Gross Margins 0.33897
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.000030000001
Held Percent Institutions 0.013259999
Implied Shares Outstanding 2,055,834,735
Industry Oil & Gas Integrated
Industry Disp Oil & Gas Integrated
Industry Key oil-gas-integrated
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,777,420,800
Last Dividend Value 0.661
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining and Petrochemicals; and Energy transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. The Exploration and Production segment engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas. The Transport and Logistics segment is involved in the transportation of crude oil, motor fuels, fuel oil, and other refined products, including diesel, jet, and biofuels. The Refining and Petrochemicals segment refines and processes crude oil at the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refineries; and distributes natural gas and LPG. The energy Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions segment supplies transmission and information technology and telecommunications services, as well as designs, develops, constructs, operates, and maintains road and energy infrastructure projects. The company operates in Colombia, the United States, China, Brazil, India, Singapore and other Asian countries, Peru, Chile, Other South America countries, Central America and the Caribbean, and Europe. The company was formerly known as Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos and changed its name to Ecopetrol S.A. in June 2003. Ecopetrol S.A. was incorporated in 1948 and is based in Bogotá, Colombia.
Long Name Ecopetrol S.A.
Market us_market
Market Cap 32,646,656,000
Market State POSTPOST
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_8142536
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 29,343,008,621
Number Of Analyst Opinions 11
Open 15.79
Operating Margins 0.0
Payout Ratio 0.4316
Peg Ratio 0.77
Phone 57 310 315 8600
Post Market Change 0.03999996
Post Market Change Percent 0.25188893
Post Market Price 15.92
Post Market Time 1,783,986,921
Previous Close 15.58
Price Eps Current Year 8.685094
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.008089465
Profit Margins 0.07515
Quick Ratio 0.959
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key underperform
Recommendation Mean 3.63636
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.3
Regular Market Change Percent 1.92555
Regular Market Day High 15.99
Regular Market Day Low 15.5
Regular Market Day Range 15.5 - 15.99
Regular Market Open 15.79
Regular Market Previous Close 15.58
Regular Market Price 15.88
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,803
Regular Market Volume 2,362,956
Return On Assets 0.05672
Return On Equity 0.12037
Revenue Growth -0.087
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20847368
Sector Energy
Sector Disp Energy
Sector Key energy
Shares Outstanding 2,055,834,735
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0039
Shares Short 7,954,285
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 9,588,571
Short Name Ecopetrol S.A.
Short Percent Of Float 0.0336
Short Ratio 2.33
Source Interval 15
Symbol EC
Target High Price 18.0
Target Low Price 9.0
Target Mean Price 13.35455
Target Median Price 14.0
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.0
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.0
Trailing Eps 1.4
Trailing P E 11.342857
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 12.205
Two Hundred Day Average Change 3.6750002
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.30110613
Type Disp Equity
Volume 2,362,956
Website https://www.ecopetrol.com.co