Carvana Co. (CVNA)Consumer Cyclical | Auto & Truck Dealerships | Tempe, United States | NYSE
64.99 USD
-0.84
(-1.276%) ⇩
(July 13, 2026, 4:03 p.m.
EDT)
After hours: 64.91 -0.08 (-0.080%) ⇩ (July 13, 2026, 7:57 p.m. EDT) |
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 5:38 a.m. EDT
The investment case here is a study in contrasts between a fundamentally recovering business and a market terrified of its history. Fundamentally, the company is showing signs of life: revenue growth is robust at 52%, and the balance sheet is surprisingly healthy with a 4x current ratio and positive free cash flow. The price has recovered significantly from its lows, suggesting the worst of the operational crisis may be behind it. However, the short-term outlook remains murky due to extreme beta (3.46) and a statistical model leaning slightly negative, which reflects the lingering fear of a repeat of the 2022 collapse. The options market confirms this anxiety; traders are buying insurance (puts) just as aggressively as they are buying lottery tickets (deep OTM calls). Until the company can demonstrate sustained profitability without heavy capital raises or until the macro environment stabilizes for auto retail, the risk-reward profile favors waiting. The current price offers a margin of safety against total ruin, but the path to the $120 analyst target requires navigating a minefield of consumer sentiment and credit conditions. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| MSTL_97 ✓ | 0.068456 |
| AutoETS | 0.087383 |
| AutoTheta | 0.088317 |
| MSTL_97_126 | 0.104914 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.113978 |
| MSTL | 0.126404 |
| MSTL_126 | 0.132865 |
Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: MSTL_97
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 34% |
| H-stat | 0.32 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.273 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -0.99 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 121.351 |
| Revenue per Share | 32.219 |
| Market Cap | 71,283,351,552 |
| Trailing P/E | 38.23 |
| Forward P/E | 30.03 |
| Beta | 3.46 |
| Profit Margins | 6.40% |
| Website | https://www.carvana.com |
As of July 11, 2026, 5:38 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for significant volatility rather than a clear directional bet. Call Open Interest builds heavily at strikes 70, 80, and 90, while Put Open Interest concentrates around the 60-68 range. The massive volume at deep out-of-the-money strikes (e.g., 600 calls, 30 puts) suggests a 'long gamma' strategy where traders are betting on large moves in either direction, likely anticipating an earnings event or a binary regulatory decision. The implied volatility skew is elevated, pricing in a 20-30% move potential within the month.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.052369416 |
| Address1 | 300 East Rio Salado Parkway |
| All Time High | 97.378 |
| All Time Low | 0.71 |
| Ask | 0.0 |
| Ask Size | 160 |
| Audit Risk | 9 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 2.0 - Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 12,603,690 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 11,950,347 |
| Average Volume | 11,950,347 |
| Average Volume10Days | 12,603,690 |
| Beta | 3.462 |
| Bid | 0.0 |
| Bid Size | 40 |
| Board Risk | 10 |
| Book Value | 5.203 |
| City | Tempe |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,483,142,400 |
| Compensation Risk | 9 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 64.99 |
| Current Ratio | 4.087 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,782,777,600 |
| Day High | 67.65 |
| Day Low | 64.3039 |
| Debt To Equity | 121.351 |
| Display Name | Carvana |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,785,355,200 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,785,355,200 |
| Earnings Growth | 0.119 |
| Earnings Quarterly Growth | 0.157 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,785,355,200 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,785,355,200 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,785,355,200 |
| Ebitda | 2,342,000,128 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.10399 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | 21.427 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 2.228 |
| Enterprise Value | 50,182,582,272 |
| Eps Current Year | 1.57961 |
| Eps Forward | 2.16388 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | 1.7 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NYQ |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 69.31552 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -4.3255234 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.06240339 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -5.2369413 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 97.378 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -32.388 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.3326008 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 54.464 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 10.525997 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.19326521 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 54.464 - 97.378 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,493,386,200,000 |
| Float Shares | 702,843,652 |
| Forward Eps | 2.16388 |
| Forward P E | 30.03401 |
| Free Cashflow | 196,750,000 |
| Full Exchange Name | NYSE |
| Full Time Employees | 23,100 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,782,864,000 |
| Gross Margins | 0.20131001 |
| Gross Profits | 4,534,000,128 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.02046 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 1.08307 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 1,096,835,740 |
| Industry | Auto & Truck Dealerships |
| Industry Disp | Auto & Truck Dealerships |
| Industry Key | auto-truck-dealerships |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 0 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Last Split Date | 1,778,198,400 |
| Last Split Factor | 5:1 |
| Long Business Summary | Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars. It provides vehicle acquisition, inspection and reconditioning, online search and shopping experience, financing, complementary products, logistics network and distinctive fulfillment experience, and post-sale customer support services. The company also operates auction sites. Carvana Co. was founded in 2012 and is based in Tempe, Arizona. |
| Long Name | Carvana Co. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 71,283,351,552 |
| Market State | PREPRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_424080297 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,774,915,200 |
| Net Income To Common | 1,440,999,936 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 47,153,264,384 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 21 |
| Open | 65.555 |
| Operating Cashflow | 911,000,000 |
| Operating Margins | 0.09033 |
| Overall Risk | 10 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Phone | 602 922 9866 |
| Post Market Change | -0.0799942 |
| Post Market Change Percent | -0.123086944 |
| Post Market Price | 64.91 |
| Post Market Time | 1,783,987,020 |
| Previous Close | 65.83 |
| Price Eps Current Year | 41.143066 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 12.49087 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 3.1650543 |
| Profit Margins | 0.06398 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.844 |
| Quote Source Name | Delayed Quote |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 2.0 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | -0.840004 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | -1.27602 |
| Regular Market Day High | 67.65 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 64.3039 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 64.3039 - 67.65 |
| Regular Market Open | 65.555 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 65.83 |
| Regular Market Price | 64.99 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,783,973,016 |
| Regular Market Volume | 5,295,024 |
| Return On Assets | 0.114300005 |
| Return On Equity | 0.60172004 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.52 |
| Revenue Per Share | 32.219 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20847368 |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical |
| Sector Disp | Consumer Cyclical |
| Sector Key | consumer-cyclical |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 10 |
| Shares Outstanding | 716,288,385 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.1024 |
| Shares Short | 73,327,814 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,780,012,800 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 72,224,125 |
| Short Name | Carvana Co. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.138 |
| Short Ratio | 6.26 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | AZ |
| Symbol | CVNA |
| Target High Price | 120.0 |
| Target Low Price | 67.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 92.14286 |
| Target Median Price | 93.0 |
| Total Cash | 2,902,000,128 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 4.051 |
| Total Debt | 5,621,000,192 |
| Total Revenue | 22,521,999,360 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | 1.7 |
| Trailing P E | 38.22941 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 72.97911 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -7.989113 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.109471224 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 5,295,024 |
| Website | https://www.carvana.com |
| Zip | 85,281 |