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Carvana Co. (CVNA)

Consumer Cyclical | Auto & Truck Dealerships | Tempe, United States | NYSE
66.50 USD +1.48 (2.278%) ⇧ (July 14, 2026, 9:57 a.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★☆☆☆Long-term:★★★⯪☆Dividends:☆☆☆☆☆
Hot Take | July 11, 2026, 5:38 a.m. EDT

The investment case here is a study in contrasts between a fundamentally recovering business and a market terrified of its history. Fundamentally, the company is showing signs of life: revenue growth is robust at 52%, and the balance sheet is surprisingly healthy with a 4x current ratio and positive free cash flow. The price has recovered significantly from its lows, suggesting the worst of the operational crisis may be behind it. However, the short-term outlook remains murky due to extreme beta (3.46) and a statistical model leaning slightly negative, which reflects the lingering fear of a repeat of the 2022 collapse. The options market confirms this anxiety; traders are buying insurance (puts) just as aggressively as they are buying lottery tickets (deep OTM calls). Until the company can demonstrate sustained profitability without heavy capital raises or until the macro environment stabilizes for auto retail, the risk-reward profile favors waiting. The current price offers a margin of safety against total ruin, but the path to the $120 analyst target requires navigating a minefield of consumer sentiment and credit conditions.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL_97 ✓0.068456
AutoETS0.087383
AutoTheta0.088317
MSTL_97_1260.104914
AutoARIMA0.113978
MSTL0.126404
MSTL_1260.132865

Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: MSTL_97

Forecast Reliability
Score 34%
H-stat 0.32
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.273
Excess Kurtosis -0.99
Attribute Value
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Debt to Equity Ratio 121.351
Revenue per Share 32.219
Market Cap 72,934,965,248
Trailing P/E 38.44
Forward P/E 30.48
Beta 3.46
Profit Margins 6.40%
Website https://www.carvana.com

As of July 11, 2026, 5:38 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for significant volatility rather than a clear directional bet. Call Open Interest builds heavily at strikes 70, 80, and 90, while Put Open Interest concentrates around the 60-68 range. The massive volume at deep out-of-the-money strikes (e.g., 600 calls, 30 puts) suggests a 'long gamma' strategy where traders are betting on large moves in either direction, likely anticipating an earnings event or a binary regulatory decision. The implied volatility skew is elevated, pricing in a 20-30% move potential within the month.


Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.06733447
Address1 300 East Rio Salado Parkway
All Time High 97.378
All Time Low 0.71
Ask 67.75
Ask Size 40
Audit Risk 9
Average Analyst Rating 2.0 - Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 9,654,310
Average Daily Volume3 Month 11,625,867
Average Volume 11,625,867
Average Volume10Days 9,654,310
Beta 3.462
Bid 67.73
Bid Size 80
Board Risk 10
Book Value 5.203
City Tempe
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,483,142,400
Compensation Risk 9
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 66.4958
Current Ratio 4.087
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 68.565
Day Low 66.15
Debt To Equity 121.351
Display Name Carvana
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,785,355,200
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,785,355,200
Earnings Growth 0.119
Earnings Quarterly Growth 0.157
Earnings Timestamp 1,785,355,200
Earnings Timestamp End 1,785,355,200
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,785,355,200
Ebitda 2,342,000,128
Ebitda Margins 0.10399
Enterprise To Ebitda 21.427
Enterprise To Revenue 2.228
Enterprise Value 50,182,582,272
Eps Current Year 1.57961
Eps Forward 2.18141
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 1.73
Esg Populated 0
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 69.02896
Fifty Day Average Change -2.533165
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.036697134
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -6.733447
Fifty Two Week High 97.378
Fifty Two Week High Change -30.882202
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.31713736
Fifty Two Week Low 54.464
Fifty Two Week Low Change 12.0317955
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.22091281
Fifty Two Week Range 54.464 - 97.378
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,493,386,200,000
Float Shares 702,843,652
Forward Eps 2.18141
Forward P E 30.482943
Free Cashflow 196,750,000
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 23,100
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,782,864,000
Gross Margins 0.20131001
Gross Profits 4,534,000,128
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.02046
Held Percent Institutions 1.0832801
Implied Shares Outstanding 1,096,835,740
Industry Auto & Truck Dealerships
Industry Disp Auto & Truck Dealerships
Industry Key auto-truck-dealerships
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Last Split Date 1,778,198,400
Last Split Factor 5:1
Long Business Summary Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars. It provides vehicle acquisition, inspection and reconditioning, online search and shopping experience, financing, complementary products, logistics network and distinctive fulfillment experience, and post-sale customer support services. The company also operates auction sites. Carvana Co. was founded in 2012 and is based in Tempe, Arizona.
Long Name Carvana Co.
Market us_market
Market Cap 72,934,965,248
Market State REGULAR
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_424080297
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common 1,440,999,936
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 46,551,582,141
Number Of Analyst Opinions 21
Open 66.16
Operating Cashflow 911,000,000
Operating Margins 0.09033
Overall Risk 10
Payout Ratio 0.0
Phone 602 922 9866
Previous Close 65.015
Price Eps Current Year 42.096336
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 12.78028
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 3.2383876
Profit Margins 0.06398
Quick Ratio 1.844
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key buy
Recommendation Mean 2.0
Region US
Regular Market Change 1.4807968
Regular Market Change Percent 2.2776234
Regular Market Day High 68.565
Regular Market Day Low 66.15
Regular Market Day Range 66.15 - 68.565
Regular Market Open 66.16
Regular Market Previous Close 65.015
Regular Market Price 66.4958
Regular Market Time 1,784,037,453
Regular Market Volume 915,078
Return On Assets 0.114300005
Return On Equity 0.60172004
Revenue Growth 0.52
Revenue Per Share 32.219
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20365608
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Sector Disp Consumer Cyclical
Sector Key consumer-cyclical
Share Holder Rights Risk 10
Shares Outstanding 716,288,385
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.1024
Shares Short 73,327,814
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 72,224,125
Short Name Carvana Co.
Short Percent Of Float 0.138
Short Ratio 6.26
Source Interval 15
State AZ
Symbol CVNA
Target High Price 120.0
Target Low Price 67.0
Target Mean Price 92.14286
Target Median Price 93.0
Total Cash 2,902,000,128
Total Cash Per Share 4.051
Total Debt 5,621,000,192
Total Revenue 22,521,999,360
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.0
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.0
Trailing Eps 1.73
Trailing P E 38.436874
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 72.92596
Two Hundred Day Average Change -6.4301605
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.08817382
Type Disp Equity
Volume 915,078
Website https://www.carvana.com
Zip 85,281