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Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)

Consumer Cyclical | Gambling | Louisville, United States | NasdaqGS
83.75 USD -1.77 (-2.070%) ⇩ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★☆☆☆Long-term:★★★★☆Dividends:★★☆☆☆
Hot Take | July 11, 2026, 7:08 a.m. EDT

The long-term investment case remains compelling despite the recent price weakness. The business demonstrates exceptional profitability with a 35% return on equity and healthy operating margins, supported by a nine-year cumulative gain of nearly 384%. While the stock has corrected sharply in the trailing year, dropping 24% from the last annual anchor, this represents a single-year setback rather than a structural decline, and the forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.8x suggests the market is pricing in significant risk. Analyst consensus is strongly bullish with a mean target of $137, implying substantial upside from current levels. However, the short-term outlook is clouded by technical weakness, as the price trades below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and options flow shows significant hedging activity at lower strikes. The dividend yield of 0.51% is negligible and insufficient to offset the lack of income growth. For investors willing to overlook the high leverage and recent volatility, the fundamentals support a solid long-term buy, but the immediate path is likely to remain choppy.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL ✓0.113724
AutoARIMA0.118252
AutoETS0.120784
AutoTheta0.157374

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL

Forecast Reliability
Score 49%
H-stat 0.95
Ljung-Box p 0.005
Jarque-Bera p 0.394
Excess Kurtosis -0.43
Attribute Value
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Ex Dividend Date 2025-12-04
Last Dividend Date 2025-12-04
Debt to Equity Ratio 438.287
Revenue per Share 41.845
Market Cap 5,837,116,416
Trailing P/E 15.74
Forward P/E 11.60
Beta 0.67
Profit Margins 13.21%
Website https://www.churchilldownsincorporated.com

As of July 11, 2026, 7:08 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for downside protection with heavy put interest at the 75 and 80 strikes for near-term expirations, while call interest clusters further out at 100 and 120, indicating a belief in a recovery to prior highs despite current weakness.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.39% 0.39% 0.34% 0.33%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2025-12-05 0.438000 0.389368
2024-12-06 0.409000 0.293864
2023-11-30 0.382000 0.329965
2022-12-01 0.357000 0.321883
2021-12-02 0.333500 0.289975
2020-12-03 0.311000 0.340114
2019-12-05 0.290500 0.447853
2018-12-06 0.271667 0.607281
2017-11-30 0.253333 0.646808
2016-11-30 0.220000 0.862182
2015-12-02 0.191667 0.789891
2014-12-03 0.166667 1.034449
2013-12-04 0.145000 1.000115
2012-11-26 0.120000 1.179168
2011-12-28 0.100000 1.191422
2010-12-29 0.083333 1.131217
2009-12-29 0.083333 1.320650
2008-12-29 0.083333 1.370233
2007-12-26 0.083333 0.894451
2006-12-27 0.083333 1.169312
2005-12-28 0.083333 1.347704
2004-12-29 0.083333 1.118564
2003-12-29 0.083333 1.387342
2002-12-27 0.083333 1.324498
2001-12-27 0.083333 1.451373
2000-12-27 0.083333 1.724131
1999-12-29 0.083333 2.061847
1998-12-29 0.083333 1.587295
1997-12-29 0.083333 2.325572
1996-12-27 0.054167 1.805567
1995-12-27 0.041667 1.587314
1994-12-23 0.041667 1.176480
1993-12-27 0.041667 0.934587
Additional Data
dividendRate 0.44
dividendYield 0.52
exDividendDate 2025-12-05
trailingAnnualDividendRate 0.438
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.005121609
lastDividendValue 0.438
lastDividendDate 2025-12-05
dividendDate 2026-01-06

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.19625717
Address1 600 North Hurstbourne Parkway
Address2 Suite 400
All Time High 150.45
All Time Low 2.583333
Ask 91.95
Ask Size 2
Audit Risk 4
Average Analyst Rating 1.3 - Strong Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 934,820
Average Daily Volume3 Month 1,023,254
Average Volume 1,023,254
Average Volume10Days 934,820
Beta 0.669
Bid 78.74
Bid Size 2
Board Risk 2
Book Value 15.725
City Louisville
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 3
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 83.75
Current Ratio 0.541
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 86.95
Day Low 83.51
Debt To Equity 438.287
Dividend Date 1,767,657,600
Dividend Rate 0.44
Dividend Yield 0.52
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,785,441,600
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,785,441,600
Earnings Growth 0.134
Earnings Quarterly Growth 0.078
Earnings Timestamp 1,785,355,200
Earnings Timestamp End 1,785,355,200
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,785,355,200
Ebitda 962,700,032
Ebitda Margins 0.32679
Enterprise To Ebitda 11.114
Enterprise To Revenue 3.632
Enterprise Value 10,699,116,544
Eps Current Year 6.86206
Eps Forward 7.22234
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 5.32
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,764,892,800
Exchange NMS
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 88.0088
Fifty Day Average Change -4.2587967
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.04839058
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -19.625717
Fifty Two Week High 118.46
Fifty Two Week High Change -34.71
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.2930103
Fifty Two Week Low 80.24
Fifty Two Week Low Change 3.5100021
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.043743797
Fifty Two Week Range 80.24 - 118.46
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 733,415,400,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 0.33
Float Shares 65,777,851
Forward Eps 7.22234
Forward P E 11.595964
Free Cashflow 125,112,496
Full Exchange Name NasdaqGS
Full Time Employees 6,600
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,782,864,000
Gross Margins 0.33796
Gross Profits 995,600,000
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.059070002
Held Percent Institutions 0.84678
Implied Shares Outstanding 69,696,908
Industry Gambling
Industry Disp Gambling
Industry Key gambling
Ir Website http://www.churchilldowns.com/about/investor.html
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,764,892,800
Last Dividend Value 0.438
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Last Split Date 1,684,713,600
Last Split Factor 2:1
Long Business Summary Churchill Downs Incorporated operates live and historical racing entertainment venues, online wagering businesses, and regional casino gaming properties in the United States. It operates through three segments: Live and Historical Racing, Wagering Services and Solutions, and Gaming. The Live and Historical Racing segment engages in live and historical pari-mutuel racing related activities at Churchill Downs Racetrack and its historical racing properties in Kentucky, Virginia, and New Hampshire; provides racing event-related services, including admissions, personal seat licenses, sponsorships, television rights, and other miscellaneous services, as well as food and beverages services. The Wagering Services and Solutions engages in pari-mutuel wagers through TwinSpires, which operates the online horse racing wagering business for TwinSpires.com, BetAmerica.com, and other white-label platforms; facilitates dollar wagering; provides the Bloodstock Research Information Services platform for horse racing statistical data; offers streaming video of live horse races, replays, and an assortment of racing and handicapping information; and provides technology services to third parties. This segment also operates retail and online sports betting businesses, United Tote, which manufactures and operates pari-mutuel wagering systems for racetracks, OTBs, and other pari-mutuel wagering businesses, and Exacta, which provides central determinant system technology in HRMs. The Gaming segment operates the casino properties and associated racetracks, which include slot machines, table games, video lottery terminals, video poker, HRMs, ancillary food and beverage services, hotel services, commission on pari-mutuel wagering, racing event-related services, and other miscellaneous operations. Churchill Downs Incorporated was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
Long Name Churchill Downs Incorporated
Market us_market
Market Cap 5,837,116,416
Market State PRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_260619
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common 388,000,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 5,839,555,436
Number Of Analyst Opinions 12
Open 86.51
Operating Cashflow 817,800,000
Operating Margins 0.21719
Overall Risk 4
Payout Ratio 0.080699995
Peg Ratio 1.69
Phone 502 636 4400
Pre Market Change 0.33000183
Pre Market Change Percent 0.39403203
Pre Market Price 84.08
Pre Market Time 1,784,030,317
Previous Close 85.52
Price Eps Current Year 12.20479
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 5.325914
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 1.9814373
Profit Margins 0.13205
Quick Ratio 0.365
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key strong_buy
Recommendation Mean 1.25
Region US
Regular Market Change -1.77
Regular Market Change Percent -2.06969
Regular Market Day High 86.95
Regular Market Day Low 83.51
Regular Market Day Range 83.51 - 86.95
Regular Market Open 86.51
Regular Market Previous Close 85.52
Regular Market Price 83.75
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,801
Regular Market Volume 729,164
Return On Assets 0.06282
Return On Equity 0.35001
Revenue Growth 0.031
Revenue Per Share 41.845
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20365608
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Sector Disp Consumer Cyclical
Sector Key consumer-cyclical
Share Holder Rights Risk 7
Shares Outstanding 69,696,908
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0533
Shares Short 3,716,376
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 4,312,287
Short Name Churchill Downs, Incorporated
Short Percent Of Float 0.056599997
Short Ratio 3.54
Source Interval 15
State KY
Symbol CHDN
Target High Price 155.0
Target Low Price 110.0
Target Mean Price 137.0
Target Median Price 137.0
Total Cash 200,000,000
Total Cash Per Share 2.87
Total Debt 5,014,000,128
Total Revenue 2,945,900,032
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.438
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.005121609
Trailing Eps 5.32
Trailing P E 15.74248
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 95.8667
Two Hundred Day Average Change -12.116699
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.12639111
Type Disp Equity
Volume 729,164
Website https://www.churchilldownsincorporated.com
Zip 40,222