The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG)Financial Services | Asset Management | Washington, United States | NasdaqGS
45.09 USD
+0.95
(2.151%)
⇧
(July 14, 2026, 10 a.m.
EDT)
|
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 5:50 a.m. EDT
The Carlyle Group presents a classic 'value trap' scenario where the math looks attractive but the business reality is deteriorating. The stock trades at a forward P/E of roughly 9x, which seems cheap, yet the company is generating negative operating cash flow (-$4.1B) and reported a massive 94% drop in revenue growth. This disconnect suggests the market has already priced in a severe contraction in the private equity sector's performance. The long-term outlook is weak because the company is failing to generate the operating cash flow required to sustain its business model or fund its massive debt load ($14.6B). The dividend yield of 3.17% is dangerous; with a payout ratio near 96%, the company is paying out almost all of its earnings, leaving no cushion for errors. If earnings slip further, this yield will vanish quickly. Short-term, the technicals are bearish, trading well below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The options market confirms this pessimism, with traders aggressively buying downside protection at strikes significantly below the current price. While the statistical forecast model shows a weak lean downward, the fundamental damage to the revenue stream and the lack of cash generation make this a risky hold rather than a speculative buy. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| MSTL_74 ✓ | 0.074445 |
| MSTL_74_126 | 0.086346 |
| AutoTheta | 0.102971 |
| AutoETS | 0.103275 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.103278 |
| MSTL | 0.104399 |
| MSTL_126 | 0.119978 |
Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: MSTL_74
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 42% |
| H-stat | 3.86 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.325 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -0.43 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Financial Services |
| Ex Dividend Date | 2026-05-17 |
| Last Dividend Date | 2026-05-17 |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 198.209 |
| Revenue per Share | 9.034 |
| Market Cap | 16,231,246,848 |
| Trailing P/E | 30.88 |
| Forward P/E | 8.85 |
| Beta | 1.83 |
| Profit Margins | 16.82% |
| Website | https://www.carlyle.com |
As of July 11, 2026, 5:50 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for a significant downside gap, evidenced by massive open interest in out-of-the-money puts (strikes 30, 32.5, 40) compared to calls. While there is some volume in near-term calls, the overwhelming capital deployment is in protective puts and deep OTM puts, suggesting a fear of a crash or a major re-rating lower rather than a rally.
| Last Yield | 1yr Yield | 3yr Avg | 5yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.75% | 2.61% | 3.14% | 3.23% |
| Date | Dividend | Yield % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 0.350 | 0.751073 |
| 2026-02-13 | 0.350 | 0.642320 |
| 2025-11-10 | 0.350 | 0.666667 |
| 2025-08-18 | 0.350 | 0.551615 |
| 2025-05-19 | 0.350 | 0.730689 |
| 2025-02-21 | 0.350 | 0.701965 |
| 2024-11-18 | 0.350 | 0.688164 |
| 2024-08-16 | 0.350 | 0.851374 |
| 2024-05-13 | 0.350 | 0.838926 |
| 2024-02-22 | 0.350 | 0.777951 |
| 2023-11-20 | 0.350 | 1.097867 |
| 2023-08-14 | 0.350 | 1.115716 |
| 2023-05-15 | 0.350 | 1.306945 |
| 2023-02-21 | 0.325 | 0.954479 |
| 2022-11-17 | 0.325 | 1.136364 |
| 2022-08-08 | 0.325 | 0.920941 |
| 2022-05-09 | 0.325 | 0.914977 |
| 2022-02-14 | 0.250 | 0.534531 |
| 2021-11-08 | 0.250 | 0.425894 |
| 2021-08-09 | 0.250 | 0.529549 |
| 2021-05-10 | 0.250 | 0.561672 |
| 2021-02-12 | 0.250 | 0.672766 |
| 2020-11-09 | 0.250 | 0.903832 |
| 2020-08-10 | 0.250 | 0.918780 |
| 2020-05-11 | 0.250 | 1.017087 |
| 2020-02-14 | 0.250 | 0.778089 |
| 2019-11-08 | 0.310 | 1.131800 |
| 2019-08-09 | 0.430 | 1.911111 |
| 2019-05-10 | 0.190 | 0.921435 |
| 2019-02-15 | 0.430 | 2.329361 |
| 2018-11-09 | 0.420 | 2.105263 |
| 2018-08-10 | 0.220 | 0.936170 |
| 2018-05-10 | 0.270 | 1.241379 |
| 2018-02-16 | 0.330 | 1.416309 |
| 2017-11-09 | 0.560 | 2.604651 |
| 2017-08-10 | 0.420 | 2.058824 |
| 2017-05-11 | 0.100 | 0.554017 |
| 2017-02-16 | 0.160 | 1.000000 |
| 2016-11-04 | 0.500 | 3.355705 |
| 2016-08-11 | 0.630 | 3.922790 |
| 2016-05-12 | 0.260 | 1.638311 |
| 2016-02-19 | 0.290 | 1.926910 |
| 2015-11-12 | 0.560 | 3.156708 |
| 2015-08-17 | 0.890 | 3.766399 |
| 2015-05-13 | 0.330 | 1.111860 |
| 2015-02-19 | 1.610 | 5.958549 |
| 2014-11-06 | 0.160 | 0.566171 |
| 2014-08-07 | 0.160 | 0.523047 |
| 2014-05-12 | 0.160 | 0.512985 |
| 2014-02-27 | 1.400 | 3.882418 |
| 2013-11-14 | 0.160 | 0.502197 |
| 2013-08-15 | 0.160 | 0.616096 |
| 2013-05-16 | 0.160 | 0.533511 |
| 2013-02-28 | 0.850 | 2.683081 |
| 2012-11-15 | 0.160 | 0.625978 |
| 2012-08-16 | 0.110 | 0.440176 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.23421234 |
| Address1 | 1,001 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW |
| Address2 | Suite 220 South |
| All Time High | 69.85 |
| All Time Low | 11.25 |
| Ask | 47.25 |
| Ask Size | 1 |
| Audit Risk | 2 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 2.2 - Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 3,181,120 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 3,508,091 |
| Average Volume | 3,508,091 |
| Average Volume10Days | 3,181,120 |
| Beta | 1.831 |
| Bid | 42.42 |
| Bid Size | 1 |
| Board Risk | 5 |
| Book Value | 15.016 |
| City | Washington |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 9 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 45.09 |
| Current Ratio | 1.994 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,782,777,600 |
| Day High | 45.28 |
| Day Low | 43.97 |
| Debt To Equity | 198.209 |
| Display Name | The Carlyle |
| Dividend Date | 1,779,926,400 |
| Dividend Rate | 1.4 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.17 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,785,960,000 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,785,960,000 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,785,873,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,785,873,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,785,873,600 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.0 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 9.149 |
| Enterprise Value | 29,723,271,168 |
| Eps Current Year | 3.80078 |
| Eps Forward | 5.09716 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | 1.46 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Ex Dividend Date | 1,779,062,400 |
| Exchange | NMS |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 45.5412 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -0.45119858 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.009907481 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -23.421234 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 69.85 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -24.759998 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.35447386 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 39.6 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 5.4900017 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.13863641 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 39.6 - 69.85 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,336,051,800,000 |
| Five Year Avg Dividend Yield | 3.07 |
| Float Shares | 261,672,610 |
| Forward Eps | 5.09716 |
| Forward P E | 8.846103 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGS |
| Full Time Employees | 2,500 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,782,864,000 |
| Gross Margins | 0.8778 |
| Gross Profits | 2,851,800,064 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.26376 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.65442 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 359,974,427 |
| Industry | Asset Management |
| Industry Disp | Asset Management |
| Industry Key | asset-management |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 0 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Dividend Date | 1,779,062,400 |
| Last Dividend Value | 0.35 |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Long Business Summary | The Carlyle Group Inc. is an investment firm specializing in direct and fund of fund investments. Within direct investments, it specializes in management-led/ Leveraged buyouts, privatizations, divestitures, strategic minority equity investments, structured credit, global distressed and corporate opportunities, small and middle market, equity private placements, consolidations and buildups, senior debt, mezzanine and leveraged finance, and venture and growth capital financings, seed/startup, early venture, emerging growth, turnaround, mid venture, late venture, PIPES, recapitalization. The firm invests across four segments which include Corporate Private Equity, Real Assets, Global Market Strategies, and Solutions. The firm typically invests in industrial, agribusiness, ecological sector, fintech, airports, parking, Plastics, Rubber, diversified natural resources, minerals, farming, aerospace, defense, automotive, consumer, retail, industrial, infrastructure, energy, power, healthcare, software, software enabled services, semiconductors, communications infrastructure, financial technology, utilities, gaming, systems and related supply chain, electronic systems, systems, oil and gas, processing facilities, power generation assets, technology, systems, real estate, financial services, transportation, business services, telecommunications, media, and logistics sectors. Within the industrial sector, the firm invests in manufacturing, building products, packaging, chemicals, metals and mining, forestry and paper products, and industrial consumables and services. In consumer and retail sectors, it invests in food and beverage, retail, restaurants, consumer products, domestic consumption, consumer services, personal care products, direct marketing, and education. Within aerospace, defense, business services, and government services sectors, it seeks to invest in defense electronics, manufacturing and services, government contracting and services, information technology, distribution companies, supply chains, aftermarket services, cybersecurity and digital resilience, digital transformation. Within healthcare, biotech and medtech innovation, life sciences, healthcare IT, pharmacy, pharma commercialization. In telecommunication and media sectors, it invests in cable TV, directories, publishing, entertainment and content delivery services, wireless infrastructure/services, fixed line networks, satellite services, broadband and Internet, and infrastructure. Within real estate, the firm invests in office, hotel, industrial, retail, for sale residential, student housing, hospitality, multifamily residential, homebuilding and building products, and senior living sectors. The firm seeks to make investments in growing business including those with overleveraged balance sheets. The firm seeks to hold its investments for four to six years. In the healthcare sector, it invests in healthcare services, outsourcing services, companies running clinical trials for pharmaceutical companies, managed care, pharmaceuticals, pharmaceutical related services, healthcare IT, medical, products, and devices. It seeks to invest in companies based in Sub-Saharan focusing on Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Botswana, Nigeria, Uganda, West Africa, North Africa and South Africa focusing on Tanzania and Zambia; Asia focusing on Pakistan, India, Hong Kong, South East Asia, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Taiwan, Korea, and Japan; Australia; New Zealand; Europe focusing on France, Italy, Denmark, United Kingdom, Germany, Austria, Belgium, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Benelux , Sweden, Switzerland, Hungary, Poland, and Russia; Middle East focusing on Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and UAE; North America focusing on United States which further invest in Southeastern United States, Texas, Boston, San Francisco Bay Area and Pacific Northwest; Asia Pacific; Soviet Union, Central-Eastern Europe, and Israel; Nordic region; and South America focusing on Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru. The firm seeks to invest in food, financial, and healthcare industries in Western China. In the real estate sector, the firm seeks to invest in various locations across Europe focusing on France and Central Europe, United States, Asia focusing on China, and Latin America. It typically invests between $2.24 million and $50 million for venture investments and between $50 million and $2 billion for buyouts in companies with enterprise value of between $31.57 million and $1000 million and sales value of $50 million and $300 million. It seeks to invest in companies with market capitalization greater than $50 million and EBITDA between $5 million to $25 million. It prefers to take a majority or a minority stake. While investing in Japan, it does not invest in companies with more than 1,000 employees and prefers companies' worth between $100 million and $150 million. The firm originates, structures, and acts as lead equity investor in the transactions. The Carlyle Group Inc. was founded in 1987 and is based in Washington, District of Columbia with additional offices across North America, South America, Asia, Australia and Europe. |
| Long Name | The Carlyle Group Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 16,231,246,848 |
| Market State | REGULAR |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_23333 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,774,915,200 |
| Net Income To Common | 546,499,968 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 15,892,870,952 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 16 |
| Open | 44.17 |
| Operating Cashflow | -4,165,799,936 |
| Operating Margins | -2.3387802 |
| Overall Risk | 7 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.9589 |
| Peg Ratio | 0.9 |
| Phone | (202) 729-5626 |
| Previous Close | 44.14 |
| Price Eps Current Year | 11.863355 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 3.0027971 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 4.9960747 |
| Profit Margins | 0.16822 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.917 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 2.1875 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 0.95000076 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 2.1507828 |
| Regular Market Day High | 45.28 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 43.97 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 43.97 - 45.28 |
| Regular Market Open | 44.17 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 44.14 |
| Regular Market Price | 45.09 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,784,037,637 |
| Regular Market Volume | 274,322 |
| Return On Assets | 0.02389 |
| Return On Equity | 0.09364 |
| Revenue Growth | -0.941 |
| Revenue Per Share | 9.034 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20365608 |
| Sector | Financial Services |
| Sector Disp | Financial Services |
| Sector Key | financial-services |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 7 |
| Shares Outstanding | 359,974,427 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.047199998 |
| Shares Short | 16,995,190 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,780,012,800 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 15,702,506 |
| Short Name | The Carlyle Group Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.0633 |
| Short Ratio | 4.15 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | DC |
| Symbol | CG |
| Target High Price | 70.0 |
| Target Low Price | 44.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 56.6875 |
| Target Median Price | 56.5 |
| Total Cash | 2,754,200,064 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 7.651 |
| Total Debt | 14,617,100,288 |
| Total Revenue | 3,248,800,000 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 1.4 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.031717263 |
| Trailing Eps | 1.46 |
| Trailing P E | 30.88356 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | 0.9075 |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 52.90325 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -7.8132515 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.14768943 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 274,322 |
| Website | https://www.carlyle.com |
| Zip | 20,004-2505 |