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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)

Basic Materials | Agricultural Inputs | Northbrook, United States | NYSE
120.92 USD +4.00 (3.421%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 121.88 +0.96 (0.794%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 7:59 p.m. EDT)
Short-term:★★★★☆Long-term:★★★★★Dividends:★★★★☆
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 6:03 a.m. EDT

CF Industries represents a rare convergence of exceptional fundamentals and strong price momentum. The business demonstrates superior quality with a 27% return on equity, nearly 20% revenue growth, and a fortress balance sheet, justifying a top-tier long-term investment rating. The nine-year price trajectory confirms this quality with a nearly 300% cumulative gain and a positive annual trend. While the statistical forecasting model offers a neutral outlook for the immediate term, the actual price action over the last two weeks has been aggressive, supported by robust call option activity targeting the upper $110s. The dividend remains a reliable feature with a sustainable payout ratio, though the yield reflects the growth profile rather than deep value. Investors should view the current volatility as a potential entry point given the disconnect between the strong underlying growth metrics and the cautious statistical signal.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL ✓0.076147
AutoARIMA0.077420
AutoETS0.077421
AutoTheta0.130633

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL

Forecast Reliability
Score 37%
H-stat 16.91
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.168
Excess Kurtosis -1.38
Attribute Value
Sector Basic Materials
Ex Dividend Date 2026-08-13
Last Dividend Date 2026-05-14
Debt to Equity Ratio 43.847
Revenue per Share 46.732
Market Cap 18,576,852,992
Trailing P/E 10.89
Forward P/E 10.78
Beta 0.39
Profit Margins 23.73%
Website https://www.cfindustries.com

As of July 11, 2026, 6:03 a.m. EDT: Implied volatility is elevated across near-term expirations, indicating heightened uncertainty. Call buyers are establishing significant open interest walls at the $115 to $120 strike range, signaling a bullish target for the immediate future. Conversely, put buyers are hedging positions around the $90 to $100 level, creating a floor expectation. The mix of heavy call volume and defensive put positioning suggests speculators anticipate further upside movement while protecting against a potential pullback.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.40% 2.10% 2.27% 2.11%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-05-15 0.500 0.399233
2026-02-13 0.500 0.528206
2025-11-14 0.500 0.587959
2025-08-15 0.500 0.582072
2025-05-15 0.500 0.579845
2025-02-14 0.500 0.606208
2024-11-15 0.500 0.574251
2024-08-15 0.500 0.626723
2024-05-14 0.500 0.672224
2024-02-14 0.500 0.644496
2023-11-14 0.400 0.499688
2023-08-14 0.400 0.512426
2023-05-12 0.400 0.601233
2023-02-14 0.400 0.467672
2022-11-14 0.400 0.371195
2022-08-12 0.400 0.382702
2022-05-13 0.400 0.385134
2022-02-14 0.300 0.419815
2021-11-12 0.300 0.464612
2021-08-13 0.300 0.620091
2021-05-14 0.300 0.552079
2021-02-12 0.300 0.676285
2020-11-13 0.300 0.971188
2020-08-14 0.300 0.854701
2020-05-14 0.300 1.218027
2020-02-13 0.300 0.762583
2019-11-14 0.300 0.647110
2019-08-14 0.300 0.635593
2019-05-14 0.300 0.728332
2019-02-14 0.300 0.705219
2018-11-14 0.300 0.666223
2018-08-14 0.300 0.625000
2018-05-14 0.300 0.741290
2018-02-15 0.300 0.733676
2017-11-14 0.300 0.844595
2017-08-11 0.300 0.983284
2017-05-11 0.300 1.102941
2017-02-15 0.300 0.869817
2016-11-10 0.300 1.105787
2016-08-11 0.300 1.347709
2016-05-11 0.300 1.018330
2016-02-10 0.300 1.077973
2015-11-12 0.300 0.636807
2015-08-12 0.300 0.486697
2015-05-13 0.300 0.491256
2015-02-12 0.300 0.495704
2014-11-12 0.300 0.563105
2014-08-14 0.300 0.606232
2014-05-14 0.200 0.403226
2014-02-12 0.200 0.437292
2013-11-13 0.200 0.459982
2013-08-14 0.080 0.212709
2013-05-15 0.080 0.210393
2013-02-14 0.080 0.183604
2012-11-14 0.080 0.204876
2012-08-10 0.080 0.192354
2012-05-11 0.080 0.232315
2012-02-10 0.080 0.222037
2011-11-09 0.080 0.240848
2011-08-11 0.080 0.243620
2011-05-12 0.020 0.074052
2011-02-10 0.020 0.066503
2010-11-10 0.020 0.080606
2010-08-11 0.020 0.122055
2010-05-12 0.020 0.134391
2010-02-18 0.020 0.098030
2009-11-12 0.020 0.123564
2009-08-12 0.020 0.121315
2009-05-12 0.020 0.129366
2009-02-12 0.020 0.181653
2008-11-12 0.020 0.191461
2008-08-13 0.020 0.072020
2008-05-13 0.020 0.072971
2008-02-20 0.020 0.078740
2007-11-13 0.004 0.023012
2007-08-13 0.004 0.035855
2007-05-10 0.004 0.050075
2007-02-15 0.004 0.057837
2006-11-09 0.004 0.096618
2006-08-10 0.004 0.134862
2006-05-11 0.004 0.117302
2006-03-02 0.004 0.114943
2005-11-09 0.004 0.147820
Additional Data
dividendRate 2.4
dividendYield 2.05
exDividendDate 2026-08-14
trailingAnnualDividendRate 2.0
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.017105713
lastDividendValue 0.5
lastDividendDate 2026-05-15
dividendDate 2026-08-31

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.20028746
Address1 2,375 Waterview Drive
All Time High 141.96
All Time Low 2.238
Ask 122.98
Ask Size 100
Audit Risk 7
Average Analyst Rating 2.8 - Hold
Average Daily Volume10 Day 2,670,630
Average Daily Volume3 Month 2,996,391
Average Volume 2,996,391
Average Volume10Days 2,670,630
Beta 0.39
Bid 121.25
Bid Size 300
Board Risk 3
Book Value 34.776
City Northbrook
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 6
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 120.92
Current Ratio 3.54
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 121.41
Day Low 118.7
Debt To Equity 43.847
Display Name CF Industries
Dividend Date 1,788,134,400
Dividend Rate 2.4
Dividend Yield 2.05
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,786,028,400
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,786,028,400
Earnings Growth 1.151
Earnings Quarterly Growth 0.971
Earnings Timestamp 1,785,960,000
Earnings Timestamp End 1,785,960,000
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,785,960,000
Ebitda 3,436,999,936
Ebitda Margins 0.46402
Enterprise To Ebitda 6.712
Enterprise To Revenue 3.114
Enterprise Value 23,068,852,224
Eps Current Year 17.30785
Eps Forward 11.22038
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 11.1
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,786,665,600
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 115.2252
Fifty Day Average Change 5.6948013
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.04942323
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 20.028746
Fifty Two Week High 141.96
Fifty Two Week High Change -21.040009
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.14821082
Fifty Two Week Low 75.42
Fifty Two Week Low Change 45.5
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.6032883
Fifty Two Week Range 75.42 - 141.96
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,123,767,000,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 2.03
Float Shares 152,549,260
Forward Eps 11.22038
Forward P E 10.776818
Free Cashflow 1,076,375,040
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 2,900
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,782,864,000
Gross Margins 0.39125
Gross Profits 2,897,999,872
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.00438
Held Percent Institutions 1.0367299
Implied Shares Outstanding 153,629,274
Industry Agricultural Inputs
Industry Disp Agricultural Inputs
Industry Key agricultural-inputs
Ir Website http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=115908&p=irol-IRHome
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,778,803,200
Last Dividend Value 0.5
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Last Split Date 1,434,585,600
Last Split Factor 5:1
Long Business Summary CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production of ammonia in North America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other segments. The company offers ammonia products; nitrogen products, such as granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, and ammonium nitrate; diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, and nitric acid products. It serves cooperatives, retailers, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.
Long Name CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 18,576,852,992
Market State POSTPOST
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_22357184
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common 1,758,000,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 17,962,334,716
Number Of Analyst Opinions 19
Open 118.82
Operating Cashflow 2,662,000,128
Operating Margins 0.33585
Overall Risk 4
Payout Ratio 0.18020001
Peg Ratio 3.47
Phone 847 405 2400
Post Market Change 0.9599991
Post Market Change Percent 0.7939126
Post Market Price 121.88
Post Market Time 1,783,987,188
Previous Close 116.92
Price Eps Current Year 6.9864254
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 3.4771104
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 2.508013
Profit Margins 0.23733999
Quick Ratio 2.915
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key hold
Recommendation Mean 2.80952
Region US
Regular Market Change 4.0
Regular Market Change Percent 3.42114
Regular Market Day High 121.41
Regular Market Day Low 118.7
Regular Market Day Range 118.7 - 121.41
Regular Market Open 118.82
Regular Market Previous Close 116.92
Regular Market Price 120.92
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,802
Regular Market Volume 2,446,988
Return On Assets 0.11338
Return On Equity 0.273
Revenue Growth 0.194
Revenue Per Share 46.732
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20847368
Sector Basic Materials
Sector Disp Basic Materials
Sector Key basic-materials
Share Holder Rights Risk 5
Shares Outstanding 153,629,274
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0668
Shares Short 10,268,835
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 9,415,037
Short Name CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
Short Percent Of Float 0.0797
Short Ratio 3.59
Source Interval 15
State IL
Symbol CF
Target High Price 195.72
Target Low Price 100.0
Target Mean Price 125.72211
Target Median Price 121.0
Total Cash 2,042,000,000
Total Cash Per Share 13.292
Total Debt 3,620,000,000
Total Revenue 7,407,000,064
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 2.0
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.017105713
Trailing Eps 11.1
Trailing P E 10.893693
Trailing Peg Ratio 3.4717
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 100.6153
Two Hundred Day Average Change 20.304695
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.20180523
Type Disp Equity
Volume 2,446,988
Website https://www.cfindustries.com
Zip 60,062