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CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA)

Consumer Cyclical | Restaurants | Washington, United States | NYSE
72.54 USD +0.36 (0.499%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★★⯪☆Dividends:☆☆☆☆☆
Hot Take | July 11, 2026, 6:24 a.m. EDT

The fundamental story here is a classic high-growth, high-risk restaurant play. Revenue is expanding rapidly at +32%, which is impressive for the sector, yet profitability remains elusive with negative free cash flow and a trailing P/E of nearly 139x. The market is pricing in perfection, demanding a forward P/E of 95x to justify the current valuation. While the balance sheet is manageable with a current ratio above 2.5, the lack of dividends and negative cash burn means this is purely a growth vehicle that requires flawless execution. The short-term outlook is mixed despite the bullish options flow. The statistical forecast model shows a weak bearish lean (-0.06%) with low confidence, which aligns with the recent price action where the stock has struggled to break above its 50-day moving average, trading at a discount to that level. The heavy options positioning suggests traders are waiting for a catalyst to trigger a parabolic move, but without immediate earnings acceleration or margin expansion, the near-term path is likely choppy as the stock digests its massive gains from the prior year. Long-term, the business quality appears solid given the double-digit revenue growth and improving operating margins, but the valuation leaves little room for error. It is not a 'buy and forget' compounder yet; it is a volatile growth stock where the multiple can contract quickly if growth slows even slightly. The 3.5-star rating reflects a solid business trajectory that is currently overpriced relative to its earnings, requiring a wait-and-see approach until the P/E compresses or earnings surprise the lofty expectations.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoTheta ✓0.083501
MSTL0.087784
AutoETS0.089377
AutoARIMA0.089412

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta

Forecast Reliability
Score 38%
H-stat 3.59
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.158
Excess Kurtosis -1.37
Attribute Value
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Debt to Equity Ratio 61.544
Revenue per Share 11.086
Market Cap 8,449,013,760
Trailing P/E 139.50
Forward P/E 96.14
Beta 1.69
Profit Margins 4.79%
Website https://cava.com

As of July 11, 2026, 6:24 a.m. EDT: Speculators are heavily positioned for upside, evidenced by massive open interest walls at strikes like $90, $100, and $120 across multiple expirations. Call volume significantly exceeds put volume in the out-of-the-money range, while ATM implied volatility remains elevated relative to deep ITM strikes, suggesting a fear of a gap-up or a 'long gamma' environment where dealers face pressure if the stock rallies. The concentration of OTM open interest indicates a speculative bet on a significant move higher rather than a defensive hedge.


Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.19675052
Address1 14 Ridge Square NW
Address2 Suite 500
All Time High 172.43
All Time Low 29.05
Ask 0.0
Ask Size 400
Audit Risk 2
Average Analyst Rating 1.9 - Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 2,836,900
Average Daily Volume3 Month 3,112,788
Average Volume 3,112,788
Average Volume10Days 2,836,900
Beta 1.694
Bid 0.0
Bid Size 300
Board Risk 5
Book Value 6.958
City Washington
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 6
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 72.54
Current Ratio 2.655
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 73.2
Day Low 70.97
Debt To Equity 61.544
Display Name CAVA
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,779,224,400
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,779,224,400
Earnings Growth -0.091
Earnings Quarterly Growth -0.083
Earnings Timestamp 1,779,220,800
Earnings Timestamp End 1,779,220,800
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,779,220,800
Ebitda 149,124,000
Ebitda Margins 0.11595
Enterprise To Ebitda 57.298
Enterprise To Revenue 6.644
Enterprise Value 8,544,540,672
Eps Current Year 0.5514
Eps Forward 0.75451
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 0.52
Esg Populated 0
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 80.2202
Fifty Day Average Change -7.6801987
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.09573896
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -19.675053
Fifty Two Week High 98.79
Fifty Two Week High Change -26.25
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.26571515
Fifty Two Week Low 43.41
Fifty Two Week Low Change 29.130001
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.6710436
Fifty Two Week Range 43.41 - 98.79
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,686,835,800,000
Float Shares 107,576,418
Forward Eps 0.75451
Forward P E 96.14187
Free Cashflow -11,791,000
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 13,480
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,782,864,000
Gross Margins 0.37737
Gross Profits 485,336,000
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.05764
Held Percent Institutions 0.94964
Implied Shares Outstanding 116,473,856
Industry Restaurants
Industry Disp Restaurants
Industry Key restaurants
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Fiscal Year End 1,766,880,000
Long Business Summary CAVA Group, Inc. owns and operates a chain of restaurants under the CAVA brand in the United States. It also offers dips, spreads, and dressings through grocery stores. In addition, the company provides walk-the-line, online, and mobile ordering platforms. CAVA Group, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Washington, District Of Columbia.
Long Name CAVA Group, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 8,449,013,760
Market State PRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_291711182
Most Recent Quarter 1,776,556,800
Net Income To Common 61,602,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,416,000
Non Diluted Market Cap 8,449,013,514
Number Of Analyst Opinions 24
Open 72.55
Operating Cashflow 210,328,000
Operating Margins 0.06507
Overall Risk 6
Payout Ratio 0.0
Phone 202 400 2920
Pre Market Change -0.34999847
Pre Market Change Percent -0.4824903
Pre Market Price 72.19
Pre Market Time 1,784,021,393
Previous Close 72.18
Price Eps Current Year 131.55605
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 10.425409
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 6.569443
Profit Margins 0.0479
Quick Ratio 2.529
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key buy
Recommendation Mean 1.92593
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.360001
Regular Market Change Percent 0.498754
Regular Market Day High 73.2
Regular Market Day Low 70.97
Regular Market Day Range 70.97 - 73.2
Regular Market Open 72.55
Regular Market Previous Close 72.18
Regular Market Price 72.54
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,802
Regular Market Volume 2,689,230
Return On Assets 0.03338
Return On Equity 0.0802
Revenue Growth 0.321
Revenue Per Share 11.086
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20847368
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Sector Disp Consumer Cyclical
Sector Key consumer-cyclical
Share Holder Rights Risk 8
Shares Outstanding 116,473,856
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.1104
Shares Short 12,860,745
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 14,598,436
Short Name CAVA Group, Inc.
Short Percent Of Float 0.1172
Short Ratio 4.28
Source Interval 15
State DC
Symbol CAVA
Target High Price 110.0
Target Low Price 55.0
Target Mean Price 92.875
Target Median Price 95.0
Total Cash 402,960,000
Total Cash Per Share 3.46
Total Debt 498,487,008
Total Revenue 1,286,108,032
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.0
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.0
Trailing Eps 0.52
Trailing P E 139.5
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 70.4754
Two Hundred Day Average Change 2.064598
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.029295301
Type Disp Equity
Volume 2,689,230
Website https://cava.com
Zip 20,016