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The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE)

Consumer Cyclical | Restaurants | Calabasas, United States | NasdaqGS
81.95 USD -0.81 (-0.979%) ⇩ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★★⯪☆Long-term:★★★⯪☆Dividends:★★⯪☆☆
Hot Take | July 11, 2026, 3:32 a.m. EDT

The Cheesecake Factory is trading at a premium to analyst expectations, with the current price significantly above the consensus target despite a robust recent price rally. While the company boasts exceptional return on equity and a positive long-term price trajectory, the high debt load and modest revenue growth temper the bullish case. Short-term momentum remains strong, supported by technicals and options flow, but the statistical forecast leans slightly negative, suggesting caution. Investors should weigh the recent recovery against the lingering valuation concerns and balance sheet risks.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL_126 ✓0.082523
AutoTheta0.098806
MSTL_57_1260.100300
AutoARIMA0.102557
AutoETS0.102558
MSTL0.102891
MSTL_570.124237

Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: MSTL_126

Forecast Reliability
Score 38%
H-stat 94.41
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.069
Excess Kurtosis -1.17
Attribute Value
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Ex Dividend Date 2026-05-12
Last Dividend Date 2026-05-12
Debt to Equity Ratio 466.38
Revenue per Share 81.705
Market Cap 4,071,715,328
Trailing P/E 24.03
Forward P/E 18.40
Beta 1.01
Profit Margins 4.34%
Website https://www.thecheesecakefactory.com

As of July 11, 2026, 3:32 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for a range-bound scenario near current levels, with significant open interest at the 80-82.5 strike acting as a pivot point. While near-term put volume suggests defensive hedging around 75-80, call volume at 90.0 for August indicates some upside expectations. Deep out-of-the-money puts for 2027 suggest fear of a significant drawdown, contrasting with the recent price strength.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.53% 2.02% 2.49% 2.29%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-05-13 0.300 0.530692
2026-03-04 0.300 0.468457
2025-11-10 0.270 0.587467
2025-08-12 0.270 0.432970
2025-05-14 0.270 0.497696
2025-03-05 0.270 0.540757
2024-11-13 0.270 0.558775
2024-08-14 0.270 0.763575
2024-05-21 0.270 0.718276
2024-03-05 0.270 0.753138
2023-11-14 0.270 0.828984
2023-08-15 0.270 0.783517
2023-05-23 0.270 0.817934
2023-03-07 0.270 0.737503
2022-11-14 0.270 0.740944
2022-08-09 0.270 0.901202
2022-05-10 0.270 0.786713
2020-03-06 0.360 1.145038
2019-11-08 0.360 0.836043
2019-08-13 0.360 0.919071
2019-05-15 0.330 0.698708
2019-03-01 0.330 0.704376
2018-11-13 0.330 0.644531
2018-08-14 0.330 0.655542
2018-05-09 0.290 0.545420
2018-02-27 0.290 0.613497
2017-11-14 0.290 0.645880
2017-08-14 0.290 0.645018
2017-05-15 0.240 0.410046
2017-03-06 0.240 0.388161
2016-11-07 0.240 0.454287
2016-08-08 0.240 0.471328
2016-05-09 0.200 0.388123
2016-02-26 0.200 0.397693
2015-11-05 0.200 0.416493
2015-08-03 0.200 0.347584
2015-05-04 0.165 0.328358
2015-02-23 0.165 0.333805
2014-11-03 0.165 0.358462
2014-08-04 0.165 0.382564
2014-05-05 0.140 0.310559
2014-02-24 0.140 0.300300
2013-11-04 0.140 0.295359
2013-08-05 0.140 0.318907
2013-05-06 0.120 0.303797
2013-03-04 0.120 0.342661
2012-11-05 0.120 0.353149
2012-08-06 0.120 0.364409
Additional Data
dividendRate 1.2
dividendYield 1.45
exDividendDate 2026-05-13
trailingAnnualDividendRate 1.11
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.013412276
lastDividendValue 0.3
lastDividendDate 2026-05-13
dividendDate 2026-05-26

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.28709173
Address1 26,901 Malibu Hills Road
Address2 Calabasas Hills
All Time High 84.16
All Time Low 2.666667
Ask 104.39
Ask Size 2
Audit Risk 6
Average Analyst Rating 2.6 - Hold
Average Daily Volume10 Day 1,401,330
Average Daily Volume3 Month 1,283,822
Average Volume 1,283,822
Average Volume10Days 1,401,330
Beta 1.007
Bid 59.51
Bid Size 2
Board Risk 5
Book Value 9.225
City Calabasas
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 3
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 81.95
Current Ratio 0.595
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 84.49
Day Low 80.79
Debt To Equity 466.38
Dividend Date 1,779,753,600
Dividend Rate 1.2
Dividend Yield 1.45
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,785,268,800
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,785,268,800
Earnings Growth 0.522
Earnings Quarterly Growth 0.504
Earnings Timestamp 1,785,268,800
Earnings Timestamp End 1,785,268,800
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,785,268,800
Ebitda 338,798,016
Ebitda Margins 0.08908
Enterprise To Ebitda 17.646
Enterprise To Revenue 1.572
Enterprise Value 5,978,365,440
Eps Current Year 4.03768
Eps Forward 4.45415
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 3.41
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,778,630,400
Exchange NMS
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 68.5644
Fifty Day Average Change 13.385597
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.19522664
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 28.709173
Fifty Two Week High 84.49
Fifty Two Week High Change -2.540001
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.03006274
Fifty Two Week Low 43.07
Fifty Two Week Low Change 38.879997
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.90271646
Fifty Two Week Range 43.07 - 84.49
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 716,823,000,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 2.55
Float Shares 45,664,327
Forward Eps 4.45415
Forward P E 18.398571
Free Cashflow 128,065,752
Full Exchange Name NasdaqGS
Full Time Employees 48,000
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,782,864,000
Gross Margins 0.40495
Gross Profits 1,540,217,984
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.07508
Held Percent Institutions 1.04379
Implied Shares Outstanding 49,685,363
Industry Restaurants
Industry Disp Restaurants
Industry Key restaurants
Ir Website http://investors.thecheesecakefactory.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=109258&p=irol-irhome
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,778,630,400
Last Dividend Value 0.3
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,052,800
Last Split Date 1,102,550,400
Last Split Factor 3:2
Long Business Summary The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated operates and licenses restaurants in the United States and Canada. It operates bakeries that produce cheesecakes and other baked products for its restaurants, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, external foodservice operators, retailers, and distributors. The company operates restaurants under the brands comprising The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, Flower Child, and Fox Restaurant Concepts. The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Calabasas, California.
Long Name The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
Market us_market
Market Cap 4,071,715,328
Market State PRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_319496
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common 165,034,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,588,800
Non Diluted Market Cap 4,111,960,641
Number Of Analyst Opinions 15
Open 83.33
Operating Cashflow 319,086,016
Operating Margins 0.05831
Overall Risk 5
Payout Ratio 0.32549998
Peg Ratio 1.71
Phone 818 871 3000
Previous Close 82.76
Price Eps Current Year 20.296307
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 8.883468
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 1.0705343
Profit Margins 0.043390002
Quick Ratio 0.431
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key hold
Recommendation Mean 2.57895
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.810005
Regular Market Change Percent -0.97874
Regular Market Day High 84.49
Regular Market Day Low 80.79
Regular Market Day Range 80.79 - 84.49
Regular Market Open 83.33
Regular Market Previous Close 82.76
Regular Market Price 81.95
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,801
Regular Market Volume 1,833,632
Return On Assets 0.04456
Return On Equity 0.41329
Revenue Growth 0.056
Revenue Per Share 81.705
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20847368
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Sector Disp Consumer Cyclical
Sector Key consumer-cyclical
Share Holder Rights Risk 6
Shares Outstanding 49,685,363
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.17459999
Shares Short 8,673,277
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 9,025,374
Short Name The Cheesecake Factory Incorpor
Short Percent Of Float 0.3332
Short Ratio 6.28
Source Interval 15
State CA
Symbol CAKE
Target High Price 90.0
Target Low Price 50.0
Target Mean Price 68.4
Target Median Price 68.0
Total Cash 235,090,000
Total Cash Per Share 4.732
Total Debt 2,141,740,032
Total Revenue 3,803,441,920
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 1.11
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.013412276
Trailing Eps 3.41
Trailing P E 24.032257
Trailing Peg Ratio 1.705
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 58.7117
Two Hundred Day Average Change 23.238297
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.3958035
Type Disp Equity
Volume 1,833,632
Website https://www.thecheesecakefactory.com
Zip 91,301