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Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT)

Real Estate | REIT - Mortgage | New York, United States | NYSE
10.61 USD -0.18 (-1.623%) ⇩ (Oct. 16, 2026, 1:50 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★☆☆☆☆Long-term:★☆☆☆☆Dividends:★★⯪☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 4:10 a.m. EDT

The investment case here is fundamentally broken despite the attractive headline yield. The business is deteriorating rapidly, with revenue contracting by 73% and operating margins deeply negative. The stock trades at a premium valuation relative to its shrinking earnings (a trailing P/E of 138x), indicating the market is pricing in a complete turnaround that has not yet materialized. This disconnect between the high yield and the collapsing fundamentals creates a classic value trap; the dividend is likely unsustainable given the payout ratio and the company's ability to generate cash. While the options market is screaming 'sell,' the long-term outlook remains bleak due to the structural decline in the underlying mortgage portfolio performance and the lack of growth trajectory. Investors should avoid this security until the fundamental deterioration halts and the valuation gap closes.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoTheta ✓0.054066
AutoETS0.069140
MSTL0.070434
AutoARIMA0.090657

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta

Forecast Reliability
Score 42%
H-stat 2.58
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.004
Excess Kurtosis 0.09
Attribute Value
Sector Real Estate
Ex Dividend Date 2026-09-29
Last Dividend Date 2026-09-29
Debt to Equity Ratio 484.696
Revenue per Share 2.375
Market Cap 1,787,404,672
Trailing P/E 132.56
Forward P/E 7.29
Beta 0.96
Profit Margins 3.84%
Website https://www.blackstonemortgagetrust.com

As of Oct. 10, 2026, 4:10 a.m. EDT: Speculators are aggressively positioning for downside protection, evidenced by massive open interest in out-of-the-money puts (over 25,000 contracts at strikes below current price) compared to negligible call volume. While there is some speculative call activity at distant strikes ($20-$22), the overwhelming capital deployment is in put writing and buying, suggesting a consensus expectation of further price weakness or a 'crash' scenario rather than a recovery.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
4.10% 11.79% 11.28% 10.98%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-09-30 0.47 4.104804
2026-06-30 0.47 2.772861
2026-03-31 0.47 2.454308
2025-12-31 0.47 2.456874
2025-09-30 0.47 2.552960
2025-06-30 0.47 2.441558
2025-03-31 0.47 2.350000
2024-12-31 0.47 2.699598
2024-09-30 0.47 2.472383
2024-06-28 0.62 3.559127
2024-03-27 0.62 3.134479
2023-12-28 0.62 2.831050
2023-09-28 0.62 2.846648
2023-06-29 0.62 3.012634
2023-03-30 0.62 3.530752
2022-12-29 0.62 2.891791
2022-09-29 0.62 2.590890
2022-06-29 0.62 2.223019
2022-03-30 0.62 1.944183
2021-12-30 0.62 2.007772
2021-09-29 0.62 2.016260
2021-06-29 0.62 1.930262
2021-03-30 0.62 1.975781
2020-12-30 0.62 2.254545
2020-09-29 0.62 2.795311
2020-06-29 0.62 2.569416
2020-03-30 0.62 3.179487
2019-12-30 0.62 1.665324
2019-09-27 0.62 1.734751
2019-06-27 0.62 1.753394
2019-03-28 0.62 1.804949
2018-12-28 0.62 1.935685
2018-09-27 0.62 1.857400
2018-06-28 0.62 1.959545
2018-03-28 0.62 1.988454
2017-12-28 0.62 1.912990
2017-09-28 0.62 1.998710
2017-06-28 0.62 1.949686
2017-03-29 0.62 2.009073
2016-12-28 0.62 2.073579
2016-09-28 0.62 2.080537
2016-06-28 0.62 2.292899
2016-03-29 0.62 2.320359
2015-12-29 0.62 2.289513
2015-09-28 0.62 2.272727
2015-06-26 0.52 1.851852
2015-03-27 0.52 1.867145
2014-12-29 0.52 1.775956
2014-09-26 0.50 1.822822
2014-06-26 0.48 1.656886
2014-03-27 0.48 1.673640
2013-12-27 0.45 1.651376
2013-09-26 0.27 1.058824
2012-12-21 20.00 109.890105
2008-09-26 6.00 4.470939
2008-06-26 8.00 4.275788
2008-03-27 8.00 2.936858
2007-12-27 27.00 8.379888
2007-09-26 8.00 2.265647
2007-06-27 8.00 2.294894
2007-03-28 8.00 1.754771
2006-12-27 14.00 2.796644
2006-09-27 7.50 1.792972
2006-06-28 7.00 2.127660
2006-03-29 6.00 1.942376
2005-12-28 8.00 2.672011
2005-09-28 5.50 1.731193
2005-06-28 5.50 1.655629
2005-03-29 5.50 1.676829
2004-12-29 5.00 1.650165
2004-09-10 4.50 1.605996
2004-06-28 4.50 1.688555
2004-03-29 4.50 1.771654
2003-12-29 4.50 1.977153
2003-09-26 4.50 2.271580
2003-06-26 4.50 2.343750
2003-03-27 4.50 2.564103
1995-08-08 0.75 1.428571
1994-08-08 1.50 2.857143
1994-04-14 0.36 0.564706
1993-06-07 3.75 5.000000
1993-05-28 1.50 2.222222
1993-02-26 1.50 2.222222
1992-11-19 1.50 2.352941
1992-09-08 1.50 2.666667
1992-05-19 1.50 2.352941
1992-02-20 1.50 2.222222
1991-11-12 1.50 2.222222
1991-07-18 3.00 3.636364
1991-03-15 3.00 3.809524
1990-11-21 3.00 4.444444
1990-07-25 3.00 3.478261
1990-04-24 3.00 3.636364
1990-01-22 3.00 3.809524
1989-10-25 1.50 1.428571
1989-07-11 4.50 4.137931
1989-03-10 3.00 2.500000
1988-10-19 3.00 2.000000
1988-06-14 2.40 1.641026
1988-03-09 5.10 3.162791
1987-11-30 5.10 3.238095
1987-09-09 5.10 2.833333
1987-06-09 4.50 2.352941
1987-03-04 4.50 2.068966
Additional Data
dividendRate 1.88
dividendYield 17.44
exDividendDate 2026-09-30
trailingAnnualDividendRate 1.88
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.17439704
lastDividendValue 0.47
lastDividendDate 2026-09-30
dividendDate 2026-10-15

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.39472204
Address1 345 Park Avenue
Address2 24th Floor
All Time High 559.7
All Time Low 8.0
Ask 10.62
Ask Size 1,900
Audit Risk 4
Average Analyst Rating 2.0 - Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 3,425,270
Average Daily Volume3 Month 2,608,712
Average Volume 2,608,712
Average Volume10Days 3,425,270
Beta 0.957
Bid 10.61
Bid Size 1,500
Board Risk 5
Book Value 19.124
City New York
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 6
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 10.605
Current Ratio 98.576
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,790,726,400
Day High 10.9308
Day Low 10.59
Debt To Equity 484.696
Display Name Blackstone Mortgage Trust
Dividend Date 1,792,022,400
Dividend Rate 1.88
Dividend Yield 17.44
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,793,304,000
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,793,304,000
Earnings Timestamp 1,793,277,000
Earnings Timestamp End 1,793,277,000
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,793,277,000
Ebitda Margins 0.0
Enterprise To Revenue 42.684
Enterprise Value 17,184,104,448
Eps Current Year 1.25
Eps Forward 1.45446
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 0.08
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,790,726,400
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 20
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fax 212 655 0044
Fifty Day Average 13.0646
Fifty Day Average Change -2.4596004
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.1882645
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -39.472206
Fifty Two Week High 20.67
Fifty Two Week High Change -10.065001
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.4869376
Fifty Two Week Low 10.49
Fifty Two Week Low Change 0.11499977
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.0109628
Fifty Two Week Range 10.49 - 20.67
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 346,948,200,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 10.6
Float Shares 159,292,649
Forward Eps 1.45446
Forward P E 7.2913656
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Fullday Change -0.17500019
Fullday Change Percent -1.6233784
Fullday Price 10.605
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,790,812,800
Gross Margins 1.0
Gross Profits 402,587,008
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.013150001
Held Percent Institutions 0.70031
Implied Shares Outstanding 168,543,591
Industry REIT - Mortgage
Industry Disp REIT - Mortgage
Industry Key reit-mortgage
Ir Website http://www.blackstonemortgagetrust.com/investor-relations/
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,790,726,400
Last Dividend Value 0.47
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Last Split Date 1,367,884,800
Last Split Factor 1:10
Long Business Summary Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc., a real estate finance company, originates, acquires, and manages loans and other debt or credit-oriented investments collateralized by or relating to commercial real estate. The company's investment portfolio consists of senior floating rate mortgage loans that are secured by a first-priority mortgage on commercial real estate assets. It has operations in the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, Spain, Sweden, Canada, rest of Europe, and internationally. It operates as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. The company was formerly known as Capital Trust, Inc. and changed its name to Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. in May 2013. Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Long Name Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 1,787,404,672
Market State REGULAR
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_258279
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common 15,438,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 2,118,592,938
Number Of Analyst Opinions 7
Open 10.87
Operating Cashflow 353,064,000
Operating Margins -3.69142
Overall Risk 5
Payout Ratio 23.5
Peg Ratio -0.25
Phone 212 655 0220
Previous Close 10.78
Price Eps Current Year 8.483999
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.5545388
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 4.4397974
Profit Margins 0.03835
Quick Ratio 98.554
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key buy
Recommendation Mean 2.0
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.17500019
Regular Market Change Percent -1.6233784
Regular Market Day High 10.9308
Regular Market Day Low 10.59
Regular Market Day Range 10.59 - 10.9308
Regular Market Open 10.87
Regular Market Previous Close 10.78
Regular Market Price 10.605
Regular Market Time 1,792,173,011
Regular Market Volume 1,014,004
Return On Assets 0.00077
Return On Equity 0.00448
Revenue Growth -0.731
Revenue Per Share 2.375
Sand P52 Week Change 0.16207206
Sector Real Estate
Sector Disp Real Estate
Sector Key real-estate
Share Holder Rights Risk 6
Shares Outstanding 168,543,591
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0698
Shares Short 11,756,789
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,788,134,400
Shares Short Prior Month 10,728,383
Short Name Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.
Short Percent Of Float 0.0954
Short Ratio 4.68
Source Interval 15
State NY
Symbol BXMT
Target High Price 23.0
Target Low Price 13.0
Target Mean Price 17.42857
Target Median Price 18.0
Total Cash 480,740,992
Total Cash Per Share 2.819
Total Debt 15,823,321,088
Total Revenue 402,587,008
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 1.88
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.17439704
Trailing Eps 0.08
Trailing P E 132.5625
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 17.18545
Two Hundred Day Average Change -6.58045
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.38290823
Type Disp Equity
Volume 1,014,004
Website https://www.blackstonemortgagetrust.com
Zip 10,154