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Vanguard Long-Term Bond Fund (BLV)

Long-Term Bond | Exchange Traded Fund | NYSEArca
67.20 USD +0.13 (0.194%) ⇧ (July 14, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
Short-term:★★☆☆☆Long-term:★☆☆☆☆Dividends:★★★⯪☆
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 5:05 a.m. EDT

The long-term outlook is severely compromised by a brutal five-year streak of negative annual returns, dragging the cumulative performance down by nearly 33%. While the fund offers a robust 4.76% yield, this income is largely compensating for the capital destruction and serves as a drag on total returns in a rising rate environment. The short-term picture remains murky; despite the high yield, the statistical forecast leans slightly negative, and the options market is screaming caution with massive put buying and zero call interest. This is a classic value trap where the high dividend masks the reality of a deteriorating asset class.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoTheta ✓0.010732
MSTL0.013769
MSTL_1260.013970
AutoETS0.014670
AutoARIMA0.014671
MSTL_900.016585
MSTL_90_1260.017896

Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: AutoTheta

Forecast Reliability
Score 62%
H-stat 0.88
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.524
Excess Kurtosis 0.40

As of July 11, 2026, 5:05 a.m. EDT: Speculators are overwhelmingly bearish, with heavy put volume and open interest concentrated in the September and December expirations. Call activity is negligible, with zero in-the-money positioning across all strikes, indicating a lack of bullish conviction. The flow suggests a defensive stance against further downside rather than a bet on recovery.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.40% 4.73% 4.72% 4.29%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-07-01 0.272 0.397952
2026-06-01 0.282 0.411859
2026-05-01 0.274 0.401113
2026-04-01 0.284 0.414538
2026-03-02 0.251 0.354670
2026-02-02 0.277 0.400231
2025-12-18 0.279 0.399771
2025-12-01 0.268 0.381007
2025-11-03 0.272 0.384942
2025-10-01 0.265 0.374241
2025-09-02 0.274 0.401289
2025-08-01 0.280 0.403516
2025-07-01 0.275 0.396254
2025-06-02 0.276 0.410714
2025-05-01 0.260 0.378567
2025-04-01 0.276 0.390990
2025-03-03 0.250 0.349308
2025-02-03 0.270 0.392100
2024-12-24 0.275 0.400175
2024-12-02 0.265 0.365517
2024-11-01 0.271 0.385875
2024-10-01 0.258 0.342084
2024-09-03 0.265 0.357143
2024-08-01 0.267 0.367617
2024-07-01 0.268 0.387507
2024-06-03 0.270 0.383414
2024-05-17 0.281 0.399545
2024-05-01 0.260 0.380562
2024-04-01 0.281 0.396389
2024-03-01 0.246 0.342857
2024-02-01 0.278 0.373656
2023-12-22 0.262 0.353290
2023-12-01 0.256 0.362145
2023-11-01 0.264 0.407659
2023-10-02 0.250 0.379939
2023-09-01 0.261 0.369479
2023-08-01 0.262 0.361629
2023-07-03 0.245 0.329390
2023-06-01 0.256 0.343624
2023-05-01 0.245 0.327759
2023-04-03 0.259 0.337064
2023-03-01 0.237 0.326626
2023-02-01 0.234 0.298241
2022-12-23 0.253 0.341016
2022-12-01 0.240 0.315250
2022-11-01 0.251 0.361255
2022-10-03 0.235 0.322315
2022-09-01 0.244 0.316226
2022-08-01 0.245 0.293343
2022-07-01 0.239 0.296931
2022-06-01 0.247 0.300706
2022-05-02 0.236 0.289784
2022-04-01 0.359 0.390599
2022-03-01 0.226 0.234830
2022-02-01 0.245 0.249542
2021-12-23 0.456 0.441048
2021-12-01 0.242 0.230586
2021-11-01 0.247 0.239133
2021-10-01 0.239 0.232129
2021-09-01 0.249 0.237030
2021-08-02 0.249 0.234729
2021-07-01 0.241 0.234003
2021-06-01 0.248 0.250252
2021-05-03 0.244 0.245794
2021-04-01 0.558 0.565866
2021-03-01 0.236 0.234523
2021-02-01 0.259 0.243398
2020-12-23 3.132 2.876033
2020-12-01 0.253 0.225229
2020-11-02 0.263 0.239592
2020-10-01 0.269 0.240479
2020-09-01 0.269 0.238243
2020-08-03 0.263 0.225693
2020-07-01 0.267 0.238819
2020-06-01 0.277 0.253269
2020-05-01 0.260 0.237508
2020-04-01 0.606 0.576210
2020-03-02 0.260 0.238905
2020-02-03 0.280 0.265403
2019-12-23 0.461 0.458114
2019-12-02 0.267 0.264828
2019-11-01 0.282 0.276769
2019-10-01 0.280 0.272586
2019-09-03 0.286 0.272849
2019-08-01 0.288 0.292237
2019-07-01 0.283 0.291572
2019-06-03 0.284 0.298822
2019-05-01 0.275 0.301106
2019-04-01 0.298 0.327581
2019-03-01 0.293 0.335164
2019-02-01 0.285 0.322034
2018-12-24 0.263 0.302264
2018-12-03 0.285 0.336204
2018-11-01 0.290 0.344582
2018-10-01 0.281 0.323621
2018-09-04 0.292 0.331066
2018-08-01 0.293 0.333523
2018-07-02 0.288 0.326568
2018-06-01 0.295 0.332807
2018-05-01 0.286 0.325074
2018-04-02 0.440 0.485169
2018-03-01 0.272 0.303064
2018-02-01 0.277 0.301710
2017-12-26 0.293 0.311503
2017-12-01 0.283 0.299344
2017-11-01 0.293 0.313001
2017-10-02 0.288 0.308021
2017-09-01 0.297 0.316294
2017-08-01 0.290 0.310326
2017-07-03 0.281 0.302867
2017-06-01 0.294 0.318630
2017-05-01 0.288 0.318796
2017-04-03 0.291 0.321796
2017-03-01 0.269 0.300357
2017-02-01 0.289 0.324719
2016-12-22 0.452 0.513345
2016-12-01 0.299 0.340159
2016-11-01 0.293 0.309627
2016-10-03 0.284 0.289707
2016-09-01 0.301 0.302543
2016-08-01 0.337 0.339889
2016-07-01 0.282 0.284561
2016-06-01 0.292 0.312567
2016-05-02 0.290 0.311761
2016-04-01 0.298 0.320120
2016-02-01 0.302 0.341668
2015-12-23 0.442 0.507754
2015-12-01 0.304 0.340578
2015-11-02 0.301 0.338164
2015-10-01 0.286 0.320269
2015-09-01 0.243 0.273525
2015-08-03 0.319 0.353737
2015-07-01 0.302 0.348328
2015-06-01 0.310 0.343605
2015-05-01 0.298 0.323456
2015-04-01 0.401 0.413019
2015-03-02 0.279 0.294615
2015-02-02 0.309 0.308938
2014-12-23 0.324 0.349590
2014-12-01 0.301 0.326606
2014-11-03 0.301 0.330406
2014-10-01 0.293 0.322261
2014-09-02 0.280 0.306379
2014-08-01 0.304 0.339324
2014-07-01 0.309 0.346296
2014-06-02 0.316 0.354459
2014-05-01 0.300 0.338295
2014-04-01 0.327 0.380012
2014-03-03 0.284 0.329428
2014-02-03 0.320 0.371187
2013-12-24 0.328 0.398833
2013-12-02 0.319 0.388835
2013-11-01 0.319 0.381853
2013-10-01 0.324 0.392632
2013-09-03 0.320 0.391917
2013-08-01 0.327 0.393976
2013-07-01 0.310 0.362743
2013-06-03 0.311 0.349635
2013-05-01 0.305 0.321289
2013-04-01 0.502 0.549234
2013-03-01 0.288 0.311520
2013-02-01 0.310 0.342693
2012-12-24 1.383 1.481839
2012-12-03 0.310 0.320811
2012-10-01 0.310 0.320778
2012-09-04 0.321 0.330621
2012-08-01 0.320 0.325932
2012-07-02 0.312 0.326633
2012-06-01 0.311 0.321513
2012-05-01 0.319 0.350280
2012-04-02 0.472 0.531651
2012-03-01 0.307 0.337734
2012-02-01 0.300 0.327118
2011-12-23 1.130 1.253606
2011-12-01 0.318 0.355904
2011-11-01 0.324 0.351143
2011-10-03 0.305 0.327043
2011-09-01 0.331 0.377079
2011-08-01 0.344 0.411532
2011-07-01 0.325 0.408189
2011-06-01 0.321 0.388385
2011-05-02 0.328 0.411131
2011-04-01 0.337 0.430066
2011-03-01 0.304 0.387015
2011-02-01 0.334 0.432251
2010-12-27 1.004 1.277354
2010-12-01 0.338 0.419719
2010-11-01 0.343 0.412408
2010-10-01 0.324 0.380952
2010-09-01 0.316 0.367784
2010-08-02 0.341 0.414590
2010-07-01 0.324 0.396719
2010-06-01 0.320 0.402061
2010-05-03 0.330 0.421295
2010-04-01 0.345 0.450980
2010-03-01 0.303 0.392945
2010-02-01 0.343 0.445570
2009-12-28 0.337 0.447127
2009-12-01 0.337 0.428862
2009-11-02 0.336 0.429174
2009-10-01 0.301 0.375640
2009-09-01 0.338 0.436918
2009-08-03 0.329 0.434553
2009-07-01 0.335 0.453254
2009-06-01 0.330 0.460572
2009-05-01 0.334 0.465440
2009-04-01 0.342 0.466258
2009-03-02 0.343 0.476852
2009-02-02 0.344 0.455207
2008-12-24 0.335 0.416926
2008-12-01 0.325 0.442418
2008-11-03 0.329 0.500152
2008-10-01 0.324 0.454865
2008-09-02 0.331 0.441746
2008-08-01 0.328 0.444204
2008-07-01 0.340 0.458530
2008-06-02 0.347 0.466085
2008-05-01 0.336 0.439158
2008-04-01 0.346 0.458278
2008-03-03 0.315 0.411120
2008-02-01 0.348 0.446669
2007-12-24 0.330 0.438655
2007-12-03 0.334 0.428535
2007-11-01 0.323 0.423052
2007-10-01 0.335 0.448101
2007-09-04 0.345 0.464084
2007-08-01 0.283 0.385034
2007-07-02 0.235 0.321082
2007-06-01 0.255 0.346562
2007-05-01 0.300 0.396825
Additional Data
trailingAnnualDividendRate 0.0
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.0
dividendYield 4.76

Info Dump

Attribute Value
All Time High 117.98
All Time Low 62.95
Ask 67.29
Ask Size 2,700
Average Daily Volume10 Day 738,930
Average Daily Volume3 Month 638,009
Average Volume 638,009
Average Volume10Days 738,930
Beta3 Year 2.1
Bid 66.9
Bid Size 1,300
Category Long-Term Bond
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Day High 67.43
Day Low 67.115
Dividend Yield 4.76
Esg Populated 0
Exchange PCX
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 68.2916
Fifty Day Average Change -1.0916061
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.015984485
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -0.6075859
Fifty Two Week High 72.63
Fifty Two Week High Change -5.4300003
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.0747625
Fifty Two Week Low 66.49
Fifty Two Week Low Change 0.7099991
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.010678284
Fifty Two Week Range 66.49 - 72.63
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,176,211,800,000
Five Year Average Return -0.045055
Full Exchange Name NYSEArca
Fund Family Vanguard
Fund Inception Date 1,138,838,400
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Language en-US
Legal Type Exchange Traded Fund
Long Business Summary This index includes all medium and larger issues of U.S. government, investment-grade corporate, and investment-grade international dollar-denominated bonds that have maturities of greater than 10 years and are publicly issued. All of the fund's investments will be selected through the sampling process, and at least 80% of the fund's assets will be invested in bonds held in the index.
Long Name Vanguard Long-Term Bond Fund
Market us_market
Market State PRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_33837532
Nav Price 67.16
Net Assets 8,673,027,100.0
Net Expense Ratio 0.03
Open 67.17
Phone 800-523-1036
Pre Market Change 0.0
Pre Market Change Percent 0.0
Pre Market Price 67.2
Pre Market Time 1,784,111,136
Previous Close 67.07
Price Hint 2
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type ETF
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.129997
Regular Market Change Percent 0.193823
Regular Market Day High 67.43
Regular Market Day Low 67.115
Regular Market Day Range 67.115 - 67.43
Regular Market Open 67.17
Regular Market Previous Close 67.07
Regular Market Price 67.2
Regular Market Time 1,784,059,200
Regular Market Volume 1,133,328
Short Name Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF
Source Interval 15
Symbol BLV
Three Year Average Return 0.0136988
Total Assets 8,673,027,072
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.0
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.0
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Trailing Three Month Nav Returns 1.52729
Trailing Three Month Returns 1.52729
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 69.6787
Two Hundred Day Average Change -2.4787064
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.03557337
Type Disp ETF
Volume 1,133,328
Yield 0.0476
Ytd Return 1.01715