B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS)Consumer Defensive | Packaged Foods | Parsippany, United States | NYSE
2.42 USD
|
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 10:37 a.m. EDT
The investment case for B&G Foods is currently broken by a perfect storm of deteriorating fundamentals and a catastrophic multi-year price collapse. The company is trading at a forward P/E of 4.6x despite generating negative earnings (-$0.85 trailing EPS) and suffering a 9.7% revenue contraction. This is not a value opportunity; it is a distressed asset where the market has correctly priced a failing business model. The balance sheet is fragile, with debt-to-equity exceeding 650%, and the return on equity is deeply negative at -15.8%. The price history confirms this structural deterioration: the stock has lost 91.5% of its value over the last nine years, with four consecutive years of negative annual returns ending recently. While the headline dividend yield looks attractive at 15%, it is a trap. The payout ratio is effectively zero because the company is losing money; this yield is phantom income that will vanish the moment the board cuts the payout to preserve cash, a scenario strongly hinted at by recent headlines regarding necessary dividend cuts. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock trading well below its 50-day and 200-day averages, and the statistical forecast models predict a further 3% drop over the next month. Options data reinforces this pessimism, with traders buying insurance (puts) rather than betting on a recovery. There is no catalyst here to justify a turnaround bet yet; the business is shrinking, the balance sheet is impaired, and the market is pricing in continued distress. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| MSTL ✓ | 0.145168 |
| AutoTheta | 0.150505 |
| AutoETS | 0.151920 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.154813 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 39% |
| H-stat | 144.45 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.113 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -0.82 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Consumer Defensive |
| Ex Dividend Date | 2026-09-29 |
| Last Dividend Date | 2026-09-29 |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 651.844 |
| Revenue per Share | 22.045 |
| Market Cap | 196,687,136 |
| Forward P/E | 4.69 |
| Beta | 0.58 |
| Profit Margins | -4.00% |
| Website | https://bgfoods.com |
As of Oct. 10, 2026, 10:37 a.m. EDT: Speculators are overwhelmingly bearish, positioning heavy protective puts at strikes significantly above the current price (OTM puts show massive open interest relative to calls). Call activity is negligible and concentrated deep out-of-the-money, suggesting a lack of conviction in a rebound. Implied volatility is elevated on downside strikes, indicating fear of further declines rather than anticipation of a rally.
| Last Yield | 1yr Yield | 3yr Avg | 5yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.31% | 14.07% | 12.10% | 10.15% |
| Date | Dividend | Yield % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 0.095 | 3.310105 |
| 2026-06-30 | 0.095 | 2.386935 |
| 2026-03-31 | 0.190 | 3.950104 |
| 2025-12-31 | 0.190 | 4.418604 |
| 2025-09-30 | 0.190 | 4.288939 |
| 2025-06-30 | 0.190 | 4.491726 |
| 2025-03-31 | 0.190 | 2.765648 |
| 2024-12-31 | 0.190 | 2.757620 |
| 2024-09-30 | 0.190 | 2.139640 |
| 2024-06-28 | 0.190 | 2.351485 |
| 2024-03-27 | 0.190 | 1.659389 |
| 2023-12-28 | 0.190 | 1.782364 |
| 2023-09-28 | 0.190 | 1.958763 |
| 2023-06-29 | 0.190 | 1.362007 |
| 2023-03-30 | 0.190 | 1.241019 |
| 2022-12-29 | 0.190 | 1.691897 |
| 2022-09-29 | 0.475 | 2.817319 |
| 2022-06-29 | 0.475 | 2.055387 |
| 2022-03-30 | 0.475 | 1.767113 |
| 2021-12-30 | 0.475 | 1.534238 |
| 2021-09-29 | 0.475 | 1.525369 |
| 2021-06-29 | 0.475 | 1.451711 |
| 2021-03-30 | 0.475 | 1.509854 |
| 2020-12-30 | 0.475 | 1.687389 |
| 2020-09-29 | 0.475 | 1.708019 |
| 2020-06-29 | 0.475 | 1.941946 |
| 2020-03-30 | 0.475 | 2.817319 |
| 2019-12-30 | 0.475 | 2.708096 |
| 2019-09-27 | 0.475 | 2.476538 |
| 2019-06-27 | 0.475 | 2.284752 |
| 2019-03-28 | 0.475 | 1.950719 |
| 2018-12-28 | 0.475 | 1.585447 |
| 2018-09-27 | 0.475 | 1.711712 |
| 2018-06-28 | 0.475 | 1.500790 |
| 2018-03-28 | 0.465 | 1.913580 |
| 2017-12-28 | 0.465 | 1.309859 |
| 2017-09-28 | 0.465 | 1.507293 |
| 2017-06-28 | 0.465 | 1.286307 |
| 2017-03-29 | 0.465 | 1.115108 |
| 2016-12-28 | 0.465 | 1.070196 |
| 2016-09-28 | 0.420 | 0.851754 |
| 2016-06-28 | 0.420 | 0.905563 |
| 2016-03-29 | 0.420 | 1.209677 |
| 2015-12-29 | 0.350 | 0.974930 |
| 2015-09-28 | 0.350 | 0.962596 |
| 2015-06-26 | 0.340 | 1.169993 |
| 2015-03-27 | 0.340 | 1.149814 |
| 2014-12-29 | 0.340 | 1.108214 |
| 2014-09-26 | 0.340 | 1.238616 |
| 2014-06-26 | 0.340 | 1.045832 |
| 2014-03-27 | 0.340 | 1.150982 |
| 2013-12-27 | 0.330 | 0.972591 |
| 2013-09-26 | 0.320 | 0.920863 |
| 2013-06-26 | 0.290 | 0.856215 |
| 2013-03-26 | 0.290 | 0.958361 |
| 2012-12-27 | 0.290 | 1.036084 |
| 2012-09-26 | 0.270 | 0.853081 |
| 2012-06-27 | 0.270 | 1.025057 |
| 2012-03-28 | 0.270 | 1.181619 |
| 2011-12-28 | 0.230 | 0.977060 |
| 2011-09-28 | 0.210 | 1.270417 |
| 2011-06-28 | 0.210 | 1.021898 |
| 2011-03-29 | 0.210 | 1.098901 |
| 2010-12-29 | 0.170 | 1.239971 |
| 2010-09-28 | 0.170 | 1.534296 |
| 2010-06-28 | 0.170 | 1.509769 |
| 2010-03-29 | 0.170 | 1.731161 |
| 2009-12-29 | 0.170 | 1.770833 |
| 2009-09-28 | 0.170 | 2.035928 |
| 2009-06-26 | 0.170 | 2.016607 |
| 2009-03-27 | 0.170 | 3.400000 |
| 2008-12-29 | 0.170 | 3.165736 |
| 2008-09-26 | 0.212 | 2.826667 |
| 2008-06-26 | 0.212 | 2.332233 |
| 2008-03-27 | 0.212 | 1.892857 |
| 2007-12-27 | 0.212 | 2.105263 |
| 2007-09-26 | 0.212 | 1.630769 |
| 2007-06-27 | 0.212 | 1.593985 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.473913 |
| Address1 | 8 Sylvan Way |
| All Time High | 52.84 |
| All Time Low | 2.37 |
| Ask | 0.0 |
| Ask Size | 4,900 |
| Audit Risk | 6 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 3.4 - Hold |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 2,295,080 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 2,247,032 |
| Average Volume | 2,247,032 |
| Average Volume10Days | 2,295,080 |
| Beta | 0.575 |
| Bid | 0.0 |
| Bid Size | 6,600 |
| Board Risk | 2 |
| Book Value | 4.861 |
| City | Parsippany |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 9 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 2.42 |
| Current Ratio | 1.616 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,790,726,400 |
| Day High | 2.56 |
| Day Low | 2.42 |
| Debt To Equity | 651.844 |
| Display Name | B&G Foods |
| Dividend Date | 1,793,318,400 |
| Dividend Yield | 15.7 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,786,480,200 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,786,480,200 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,786,478,400 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,794,427,200 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,794,427,200 |
| Ebitda | 258,688,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.14606 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | 8.428 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 1.231 |
| Enterprise Value | 2,180,325,120 |
| Eps Current Year | 0.5498 |
| Eps Forward | 0.516 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -0.88 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Ex Dividend Date | 1,790,726,400 |
| Exchange | NYQ |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 20 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 3.1338 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -0.71379995 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.22777458 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -47.3913 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 6.38 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -3.96 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.62068963 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 2.37 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 0.05000019 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.021097127 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 2.37 - 6.38 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,179,927,000,000 |
| Five Year Avg Dividend Yield | 10.07 |
| Float Shares | 77,096,476 |
| Forward Eps | 0.516 |
| Forward P E | 4.689923 |
| Free Cashflow | 174,660,496 |
| Full Exchange Name | NYSE |
| Full Time Employees | 2,294 |
| Fullday Change | 0.00999999 |
| Fullday Change Percent | 0.41322276 |
| Fullday Price | 2.42 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,790,812,800 |
| Gross Margins | 0.22072001 |
| Gross Profits | 390,918,016 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.04861 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.59264 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 81,275,671 |
| Industry | Packaged Foods |
| Industry Disp | Packaged Foods |
| Industry Key | packaged-foods |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 0 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Dividend Date | 1,790,726,400 |
| Last Dividend Value | 0.095 |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,398,400 |
| Long Business Summary | B&G Foods, Inc. manufactures, sells, and distributes a portfolio of shelf-stable and frozen foods, and household products in the United States, Canada, and Puerto Rico. It operates through Specialty, Meals, Frozen & Vegetables, and Spices & Flavor Solutions segments. The company offers frozen and canned vegetables, vegetables, canola and other cooking oils, vegetable shortening, cooking sprays, oatmeal and other hot cereals, fruit spreads, canned meats and beans, bagel chips, spices, seasonings, hot sauces, wine vinegar, maple syrups, molasses, salad dressings, pizza crusts, Mexican-style sauces, dry soups, taco shells and kits, salsas, pickles, peppers, tomato-based products, crackers, baking powder and soda, corn starch, nut clusters, and other specialty products. It markets its products under various brands, including Crisco, Clabber Girl, Bear Creek, Polaner, Underwood, B&G, Grandma's, New York Style, B&M, Baker's Joy, Regina, TrueNorth, Static Guard, SugarTwin, Brer Rabbit, Ortega, Maple Grove Farms of Vermont, Cream of Wheat, Las Palmas, Victoria, Mama Mary's, Spring Tree, McCann's, Carey's, Vermont Maid, Green Giant, Dash, Spice Islands, Weber, Ac'cent, Tone's, Trappey's, Durkee, Wright's, B&G Sandwich Toppers, Bear Creek Country Kitchens, Canoleo, Cary's, Cream of Rice, Joan of Arc, MacDonald's, Molly McButter, New York Flatbreads, Old London, and Sa-són brands. The company sells and distributes its products directly, as well as through a network of independent brokers and distributors to supermarket chains, foodservice outlets, mass merchants, warehouse clubs, non-food outlets, and specialty distributors. The company was formerly known as B&G Foods Holdings Corp. and changed its name to B&G Foods, Inc. in October 2004. B&G Foods, Inc. was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Parsippany, New Jersey. |
| Long Name | B&G Foods, Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 196,687,136 |
| Market State | PRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_6631173 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,783,123,200 |
| Net Income To Common | -70,845,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,934,400 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 242,201,499 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 5 |
| Open | 2.48 |
| Operating Cashflow | 88,845,000 |
| Operating Margins | 0.119619995 |
| Overall Risk | 3 |
| Payout Ratio | 3.2759 |
| Peg Ratio | 4.55 |
| Phone | 973 401 6500 |
| Previous Close | 2.42 |
| Price Eps Current Year | 4.401601 |
| Price Hint | 4 |
| Price To Book | 0.49783996 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 0.11105548 |
| Profit Margins | -0.04 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.002 |
| Quote Source Name | Delayed Quote |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | hold |
| Recommendation Mean | 3.4 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 0.0 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 0.0 |
| Regular Market Day High | 2.56 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 2.42 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 2.42 - 2.56 |
| Regular Market Open | 2.48 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 2.42 |
| Regular Market Price | 2.42 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,792,094,402 |
| Regular Market Volume | 1,331,894 |
| Return On Assets | 0.03901 |
| Return On Equity | -0.15805 |
| Revenue Growth | -0.097 |
| Revenue Per Share | 22.045 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.16207206 |
| Sector | Consumer Defensive |
| Sector Disp | Consumer Defensive |
| Sector Key | consumer-defensive |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 1 |
| Shares Outstanding | 81,275,671 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.1826 |
| Shares Short | 14,840,878 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,788,134,400 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 13,429,007 |
| Short Name | B&G Foods, Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.1926 |
| Short Ratio | 6.58 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | NJ |
| Symbol | BGS |
| Target High Price | 5.0 |
| Target Low Price | 3.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 4.0 |
| Target Median Price | 4.0 |
| Total Cash | 591,576,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 7.279 |
| Total Debt | 2,575,214,080 |
| Total Revenue | 1,771,070,976 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.665 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.2747934 |
| Trailing Eps | -0.88 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 4.2086 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -1.7886 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.42498693 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 1,331,894 |
| Website | https://bgfoods.com |
| Zip | 7,054 |