Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL)Basic Materials | Steel | Sault Sainte Marie, Canada | NasdaqGM
4.18 USD
-0.11
(-2.564%) ⇩
(Aug. 28, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
After hours: 4.18 |
Hot Take ↕ | Aug. 22, 2026, 5:10 a.m. EDT
The investment case for Algoma Steel is currently broken by a perfect storm of deteriorating fundamentals and a hostile market structure. The company is bleeding cash, with operating margins in deep negative territory and free cash flow draining reserves at a rapid pace. While the stock trades at a low price-to-book ratio, this is a value trap; the balance sheet is compromised with debt significantly outweighing equity, and the business is shrinking, not growing. The long-term outlook is bleak. The stock has suffered a catastrophic 53% decline over the last four years, with the most recent annual performance showing another nearly 50% drop. This multi-year structural decline indicates that the market has permanently reassessed the quality of the business downward. The recent news of falling earnings and high costs confirms that the operational headwinds are intensifying, not easing. Dividends are a mirage here. While a small payout exists, it is being funded against a backdrop of negative free cash flow and massive debt obligations. This is unsustainable and poses a severe risk of capital destruction if the company cannot generate positive cash flow soon. Short-term traders should also exercise extreme caution. Options data reveals a stark bearish bias, with investors buying significant put protection at lower price levels while offering very little upside exposure. With the statistical forecasting model showing low confidence and no directional edge, there is no clear catalyst to reverse the trend. The consensus 'Hold' recommendation reflects the reality that the stock lacks the fundamental strength to rally without a major operational turnaround. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| AutoARIMA ✓ | 0.274037 |
| AutoETS | 0.277820 |
| MSTL | 0.280564 |
| AutoTheta | 0.366534 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoARIMA
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 38% |
| H-stat | 2.09 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.231 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -0.99 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Basic Materials |
| Ex Dividend Date | 2025-05-12 |
| Last Dividend Date | 2025-05-12 |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 367.997 |
| Revenue per Share | 14.165 |
| Market Cap | 440,524,384 |
| Forward P/E | -14.01 |
| Beta | 1.63 |
| Profit Margins | -71.61% |
| Website | https://algoma.com |
As of Aug. 22, 2026, 5:10 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning heavily for downside protection, evidenced by massive open interest in out-of-the-money puts expiring in January 2027 (over 4,500 contracts at the $3 strike). This bearish skew contrasts sharply with the relatively thin call volume, suggesting the market views the current price as vulnerable to further deterioration rather than poised for a rebound.
| Date | Dividend | Yield % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-13 | 0.05 | 0.827815 |
| 2025-03-21 | 0.05 | 0.813008 |
| 2024-11-27 | 0.05 | 0.468604 |
| 2024-08-23 | 0.05 | 0.514403 |
| 2024-07-02 | 0.05 | 0.722543 |
| 2024-02-28 | 0.05 | 0.595238 |
| 2023-11-29 | 0.05 | 0.600962 |
| 2023-08-24 | 0.05 | 0.709220 |
| 2023-07-03 | 0.05 | 0.693481 |
| 2023-02-27 | 0.05 | 0.658762 |
| 2022-11-30 | 0.05 | 0.755287 |
| 2022-11-29 | 0.05 | 0.773994 |
| 2022-08-30 | 0.05 | 0.535332 |
| 2022-06-24 | 0.05 | 0.537057 |
| 2022-02-25 | 0.05 | 0.555556 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.13457555 |
| Address1 | 105 West Street |
| All Time High | 13.65 |
| All Time Low | 3.02 |
| Ask | 5.42 |
| Ask Size | 2 |
| Audit Risk | 3 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 2.0 - Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 1,895,900 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 1,096,269 |
| Average Volume | 1,096,269 |
| Average Volume10Days | 1,895,900 |
| Beta | 1.629 |
| Bid | 3.08 |
| Bid Size | 2 |
| Board Risk | 4 |
| Book Value | 2.0163786 |
| City | Sault Sainte Marie |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 1 |
| Country | Canada |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 4.18 |
| Current Ratio | 2.49 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,786,665,600 |
| Day High | 4.4 |
| Day Low | 4.155 |
| Debt To Equity | 367.997 |
| Display Name | Algoma Steel |
| Dividend Date | 1,748,563,200 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,785,423,600 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,785,423,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,785,355,200 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,793,131,200 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,793,131,200 |
| Ebitda | -506,900,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | -0.32845002 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | -2.894 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 0.95 |
| Enterprise Value | 1,466,864,896 |
| Eps Current Year | -3.30667 |
| Eps Forward | -0.2983788 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -7.32 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Ex Dividend Date | 1,747,094,400 |
| Exchange | NGM |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fax | 705 945 2203 |
| Fifty Day Average | 4.0934 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | 0.08659983 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | 0.021155965 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -13.457555 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 5.9 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -1.7200003 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.29152545 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 3.02 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 1.1599998 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.38410592 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 3.02 - 5.9 |
| Financial Currency | CAD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,614,868,200,000 |
| Float Shares | 70,511,067 |
| Forward Eps | -0.2983788 |
| Forward P E | -14.009038 |
| Free Cashflow | -291,787,488 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGM |
| Full Time Employees | 2,400 |
| Fullday Change | -0.11 |
| Fullday Change Percent | -2.56411 |
| Fullday Price | 4.18 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,785,542,400 |
| Gross Margins | -0.45526 |
| Gross Profits | -702,600,000 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.050380003 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.70023 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 105,388,619 |
| Industry | Steel |
| Industry Disp | Steel |
| Industry Key | steel |
| Ipo Expected Date | 2,021-10-20 |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Dividend Date | 1,747,094,400 |
| Last Dividend Value | 0.05 |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Long Business Summary | Algoma Steel Group Inc. produces and sells steel products in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company offers flat/sheet steel products, including temper rolling, cold rolled, hot-rolled pickled and oiled products, floor plate, and cut-to-length products for the automotive industry, hollow structural tube product manufacturers, and the light manufacturing and transportation industries; and plate steel products consisting of rolled, hot-rolled, and heat-treated for use in the construction or manufacture of railcars, buildings, bridges, off-highway equipment, storage tanks, ships, armored products for military applications, diameter pipelines, and wind energy generation equipment. It also provides by-products, such as furnace and buckwheat coke, braize coke, and flue dust; high sulpur beach and kish iron, BOF pit grissly and scrap, BOF and pellet fines, and mill roll scale; light oil and coal tar; granulated and air cooled slag; and machine shop turnings, used mill rolls, recycled oil, non-ferrous metal, and lime fines. The company was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in Sault Sainte Marie, Canada. |
| Long Name | Algoma Steel Group Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 440,524,384 |
| Market State | CLOSED |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_381324 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,782,777,600 |
| Net Income To Common | -1,105,200,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 453,062,427 |
| Open | 4.4 |
| Operating Cashflow | -211,900,000 |
| Operating Margins | -0.51439 |
| Overall Risk | 1 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Phone | 705 945 2351 |
| Post Market Change | 0.0 |
| Post Market Change Percent | 0.0 |
| Post Market Price | 4.18 |
| Post Market Time | 1,787,959,806 |
| Previous Close | 4.29 |
| Price Eps Current Year | -1.2641116 |
| Price Hint | 4 |
| Price To Book | 2.0730233 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 0.28544313 |
| Profit Margins | -0.71613 |
| Quick Ratio | 1.205 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 2.0 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | -0.11 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | -2.56411 |
| Regular Market Day High | 4.4 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 4.155 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 4.155 - 4.4 |
| Regular Market Open | 4.4 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 4.29 |
| Regular Market Price | 4.18 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,787,947,201 |
| Regular Market Volume | 1,023,231 |
| Return On Assets | -0.21090999 |
| Return On Equity | -1.39133 |
| Revenue Growth | -0.546 |
| Revenue Per Share | 14.165 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20204377 |
| Sector | Basic Materials |
| Sector Disp | Basic Materials |
| Sector Key | basic-materials |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 2 |
| Shares Outstanding | 105,388,619 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.0292 |
| Shares Short | 3,086,747 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,784,073,600 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 1,945,731 |
| Short Name | Algoma Steel Group Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.0392 |
| Short Ratio | 3.0 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | ON |
| Symbol | ASTL |
| Total Cash | 62,600,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 0.592 |
| Total Debt | 1,087,800,064 |
| Total Revenue | 1,543,299,968 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.001 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.00023310025 |
| Trailing Eps | -7.32 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 4.3692 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -0.1892004 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.04330321 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 1,023,231 |
| Website | https://algoma.com |
| Zip | P6A 7B4 |