Accelerant Holdings (ARX)Financial Services | Insurance Brokers | Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands | NYSE
13.34 USD
+0.70
(5.538%)
⇧
(July 13, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
After hours: 13.55 +0.21 (1.574%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 7:41 p.m. EDT) |
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 5:05 a.m. EDT
The long-term investment case is severely compromised by deteriorating fundamentals. The company is generating negative free cash flow, posting negative operating margins, and showing a return on equity of -243%. While revenue growth is robust at nearly 60%, the market is clearly pricing in a value trap where top-line expansion is failing to translate into profitability or shareholder value. The balance sheet, while currently liquid, is being eroded by cash burn, and the lack of a dividend history confirms the capital is being consumed by operations. This is not a buy-and-hold opportunity; the business model is currently broken. In the short term, the stock faces headwinds despite some recent price stabilization. It is trading significantly below its 52-week high, yet the massive gap between the current price and the analyst mean target implies a difficult road ahead to justify the valuation. The statistical forecast offers only a weak lean upward, which is insufficient to overcome the fundamental rot. Options activity shows high uncertainty with heavy speculation on both sides, but this is likely driven by the upcoming earnings estimate rather than genuine conviction in a turnaround. The prudent move is to wait for proof of sustainable profitability before considering an entry. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| MSTL_48 ✓ | 0.074479 |
| AutoETS | 0.075002 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.075254 |
| MSTL | 0.076005 |
| AutoTheta | 0.117814 |
Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: MSTL_48
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 41% |
| H-stat | 0.47 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.478 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -0.31 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Financial Services |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 16.766 |
| Revenue per Share | 4.671 |
| Market Cap | 2,910,806,016 |
| Forward P/E | 14.45 |
| Profit Margins | -150.61% |
| Website | https://www.accelerant.ai |
As of July 11, 2026, 5:05 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for significant volatility rather than a clear directional move. Call open interest is heavily skewed out-of-the-money (OTM) at strikes like $15 and $20, suggesting bets on a sharp rally, while put open interest clusters deep OTM at $5 and $7.50, indicating a hedge against a crash. However, the presence of 'new flow' volume exceeding open interest on both sides (calls at $20, puts at $20 and $22.5) suggests active speculation on a binary event rather than a consensus trend. Implied volatility remains elevated across expirations, reflecting uncertainty.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.52301884 |
| Address1 | Regatta Office Park |
| Address2 | Unit 106, Windward 3 West Bay Road |
| All Time High | 31.18 |
| All Time Low | 9.18 |
| Ask | 0.0 |
| Ask Size | 200 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 1.6 - Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 3,076,300 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 1,728,875 |
| Average Volume | 1,728,875 |
| Average Volume10Days | 3,076,300 |
| Bid | 0.0 |
| Bid Size | 500 |
| Book Value | 3.129 |
| City | Grand Cayman |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Country | Cayman Islands |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 13.34 |
| Current Ratio | 11.251 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,782,777,600 |
| Day High | 13.5 |
| Day Low | 12.7501 |
| Debt To Equity | 16.766 |
| Display Name | Accelerant |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,778,760,000 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,778,760,000 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,778,702,400 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,786,564,800 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,786,564,800 |
| Ebitda | 82,600,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.08659001 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | 16.99 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 1.471 |
| Enterprise Value | 1,403,405,824 |
| Eps Current Year | 0.742 |
| Eps Forward | 0.923 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -6.49 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NYQ |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 14.0528 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -0.7128 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.05072299 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -52.301884 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 31.18 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -17.84 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.5721616 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 9.18 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 4.16 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.453159 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 9.18 - 31.18 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,753,363,800,000 |
| Float Shares | 50,197,218 |
| Forward Eps | 0.923 |
| Forward P E | 14.452871 |
| Free Cashflow | -2,043,512,448 |
| Full Exchange Name | NYSE |
| Full Time Employees | 862 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Gross Margins | 0.64629 |
| Gross Profits | 616,499,968 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.50951 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.56044 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 218,201,340 |
| Industry | Insurance Brokers |
| Industry Disp | Insurance Brokers |
| Industry Key | insurance-brokers |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Long Business Summary | Accelerant Holdings, together with its subsidiaries, operates a data-driven risk exchange that connects selected specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital partners. It operates through Exchange Services, MGA Operations, and Underwriting segments. The Exchange Services segment consists of risk exchange, its operating platform that incorporates various technology, data ingestion, and agency operations that serve the needs of its members and risk capital partners. Its Risk capital partners write premiums directly through the Risk Exchange pay us a fixed-percentage, volume-based fee for sourcing, managing, and monitoring the business they write. The MGA Operations segment includes the fees earned by members, predominantly for originating and underwriting a portfolio of insurance policies, reduced by the expenses associated with providing services. The Underwriting segment is involved in underwriting insurance policies and assumption of reinsurance policies issued or accepted by consolidated insurance and reinsurance companies. The activities of insurance companies include property and casualty insurance, policy issuance, and reinsurance arrangements. It serves small-to-medium sized commercial clients primarily in the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom. Accelerant Holdings was founded in 2018 and is based in Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands. |
| Long Name | Accelerant Holdings |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 2,910,806,016 |
| Market State | PREPRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_708161059 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,774,915,200 |
| Net Income To Common | -1,436,700,032 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 2,758,064,937 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 9 |
| Open | 12.91 |
| Operating Cashflow | 331,900,000 |
| Operating Margins | -0.02221 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Phone | 345 743 4611 |
| Post Market Change | 0.21000004 |
| Post Market Change Percent | 1.5742131 |
| Post Market Price | 13.55 |
| Post Market Time | 1,783,986,111 |
| Previous Close | 12.64 |
| Price Eps Current Year | 17.978437 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 4.263343 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 3.051479 |
| Profit Margins | -1.5061301 |
| Quick Ratio | 10.96 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 1.6 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 0.7 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 5.53797 |
| Regular Market Day High | 13.5 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 12.7501 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 12.7501 - 13.5 |
| Regular Market Open | 12.91 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 12.64 |
| Regular Market Price | 13.34 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,783,972,802 |
| Regular Market Volume | 1,111,577 |
| Return On Assets | 0.00375 |
| Return On Equity | -2.43209 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.597 |
| Revenue Per Share | 4.671 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20847368 |
| Sector | Financial Services |
| Sector Disp | Financial Services |
| Sector Key | financial-services |
| Shares Outstanding | 112,799,194 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.031400003 |
| Shares Short | 6,849,378 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,780,012,800 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 5,567,076 |
| Short Name | Accelerant Holdings |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.121300004 |
| Short Ratio | 3.32 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| Symbol | ARX |
| Target High Price | 30.0 |
| Target Low Price | 14.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 19.11111 |
| Target Median Price | 18.0 |
| Total Cash | 1,655,399,936 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 7.587 |
| Total Debt | 120,700,000 |
| Total Revenue | 953,900,032 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | -6.49 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 13.6289 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -0.28889942 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.021197561 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 1,111,577 |
| Website | https://www.accelerant.ai |
| Zip | KY1-1108 |