Accelerant Holdings (ARX)Financial Services | Insurance Brokers | Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands | NYSE
19.77 USD
|
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 8:41 a.m. EDT
The investment case for Accelerant Holdings is currently fractured by a severe disconnect between its operational metrics and its market reality. Fundamentally, the business is bleeding capital; it reports negative earnings per share, negative free cash flow, and a return on equity of -222%. While revenue growth of 57% looks impressive on paper, the company is burning through cash at a rate that makes the current valuation of nearly 6 times book value unjustifiable. The balance sheet, while showing low debt relative to equity, cannot offset the massive negative operating cash flow. The short-term outlook remains murky. The stock is trading near its 52-week high, yet the statistical forecasting model offers no directional bias, and options flow reveals a distinct lack of bullish conviction. Traders are actively buying protection (puts) at key support levels, signaling fear of a reversal despite the recent rally. Without a clear path to profitability or a demonstrated ability to convert that revenue growth into actual cash, the stock appears to be a speculative vehicle rather than a sound investment. The lack of a dividend further removes any floor for the price, leaving it entirely dependent on the hope that the growth story will eventually translate into earnings. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| MSTL ✓ | 0.262011 |
| AutoETS | 0.265817 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.266074 |
| AutoTheta | 0.286062 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 32% |
| H-stat | 1.76 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.003 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -0.38 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Financial Services |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 16.142 |
| Revenue per Share | 4.933 |
| Market Cap | 4,293,817,600 |
| Forward P/E | 21.06 |
| Profit Margins | -127.54% |
| Website | https://www.accelerant.ai |
As of Oct. 10, 2026, 8:41 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning defensively with heavy out-of-the-money put volume at the November 2026 expiration, creating a significant wall of resistance around the $17.50 strike. Conversely, call activity is sparse and concentrated near the money, while deep out-of-the-money calls show negligible interest. This asymmetry suggests traders expect volatility or a downside move rather than a breakout, despite the stock trading near its 52-week high.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | 0.41214287 |
| Address1 | Regatta Office Park |
| Address2 | Unit 106, Windward 3 West Bay Road |
| All Time High | 31.18 |
| All Time Low | 9.18 |
| Ask | 0.0 |
| Ask Size | 11,500 |
| Audit Risk | 4 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 3.2 - Hold |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 1,863,150 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 3,635,804 |
| Average Volume | 3,635,804 |
| Average Volume10Days | 1,863,150 |
| Bid | 0.0 |
| Bid Size | 16,600 |
| Board Risk | 10 |
| Book Value | 3.307 |
| City | Grand Cayman |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 9 |
| Country | Cayman Islands |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 19.77 |
| Current Ratio | 11.33 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,790,726,400 |
| Day High | 19.8 |
| Day Low | 19.77 |
| Debt To Equity | 16.142 |
| Display Name | Accelerant |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,786,627,800 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,786,627,800 |
| Earnings Growth | 8.0 |
| Earnings Quarterly Growth | 7.943 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,786,624,200 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,794,400,200 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,794,400,200 |
| Ebitda | 109,400,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.10208 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | 25.431 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 2.596 |
| Enterprise Value | 2,782,117,632 |
| Eps Current Year | 0.8925 |
| Eps Forward | 0.93889 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -6.22 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NYQ |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 20 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 18.5554 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | 1.2145996 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | 0.06545801 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | 41.214287 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 19.9 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -0.12999916 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.006532621 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 9.18 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 10.59 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 1.1535947 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 9.18 - 19.9 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,753,363,800,000 |
| Float Shares | 56,786,119 |
| Forward Eps | 0.93889 |
| Forward P E | 21.05678 |
| Free Cashflow | -1,481,612,544 |
| Full Exchange Name | NYSE |
| Full Time Employees | 862 |
| Fullday Change | 0.0 |
| Fullday Change Percent | 0.0 |
| Fullday Price | 19.77 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,790,812,800 |
| Gross Margins | 0.65065 |
| Gross Profits | 697,299,968 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.48736998 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.64602995 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 217,188,552 |
| Industry | Insurance Brokers |
| Industry Disp | Insurance Brokers |
| Industry Key | insurance-brokers |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Long Business Summary | Accelerant Holdings, together with its subsidiaries, operates a data-driven risk exchange that connects selected specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital partners. It operates through Exchange Services, MGA Operations, and Underwriting segments. The Exchange Services segment consists of risk exchange, its operating platform that incorporates various technology, data ingestion, and agency operations that serve the needs of its members and risk capital partners. Its Risk capital partners write premiums directly through the Risk Exchange pay us a fixed-percentage, volume-based fee for sourcing, managing, and monitoring the business they write. The MGA Operations segment includes the fees earned by members, predominantly for originating and underwriting a portfolio of insurance policies, reduced by the expenses associated with providing services. The Underwriting segment is involved in underwriting insurance policies and assumption of reinsurance policies issued or accepted by consolidated insurance and reinsurance companies. The activities of insurance companies include property and casualty insurance, policy issuance, and reinsurance arrangements. It serves small-to-medium sized commercial clients primarily in the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom. Accelerant Holdings was founded in 2018 and is based in Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands. |
| Long Name | Accelerant Holdings |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 4,293,817,600 |
| Market State | PRE |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_708161059 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,782,777,600 |
| Net Income To Common | -1,366,800,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 4,282,958,244 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 3 |
| Open | 19.81 |
| Operating Cashflow | 45,800,000 |
| Operating Margins | 0.15601 |
| Overall Risk | 10 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Phone | 345 743 4611 |
| Pre Market Change | 0.0 |
| Pre Market Change Percent | 0.0 |
| Pre Market Price | 19.77 |
| Pre Market Time | 1,791,966,654 |
| Previous Close | 19.77 |
| Price Eps Current Year | 22.151262 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 5.978228 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 4.0065484 |
| Profit Margins | -1.27536 |
| Quick Ratio | 11.063 |
| Quote Source Name | Delayed Quote |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | hold |
| Recommendation Mean | 3.16667 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 0.0 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 0.0 |
| Regular Market Day High | 19.8 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 19.77 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 19.77 - 19.8 |
| Regular Market Open | 19.81 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 19.77 |
| Regular Market Price | 19.77 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,791,921,602 |
| Regular Market Volume | 776,796 |
| Return On Assets | 0.00538 |
| Return On Equity | -2.22003 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.572 |
| Revenue Per Share | 4.933 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.17502642 |
| Sector | Financial Services |
| Sector Disp | Financial Services |
| Sector Key | financial-services |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 10 |
| Shares Outstanding | 118,548,679 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.0207 |
| Shares Short | 4,501,161 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,788,134,400 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 5,177,939 |
| Short Name | Accelerant Holdings |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.072399996 |
| Short Ratio | 2.31 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| Symbol | ARX |
| Target High Price | 20.25 |
| Target Low Price | 20.25 |
| Target Mean Price | 20.25 |
| Target Median Price | 20.25 |
| Total Cash | 1,658,400,000 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 7.636 |
| Total Debt | 120,100,000 |
| Total Revenue | 1,071,699,968 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | -6.22 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 14.716 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | 5.054001 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | 0.3434358 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 776,796 |
| Website | https://www.accelerant.ai |
| Zip | KY1-1108 |