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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI)

Real Estate | REIT - Mortgage | New York, United States | NYSE
6.85 USD -0.05 (-0.725%) ⇩ (Aug. 28, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 6.85

Short-term:★★☆☆☆Long-term:★⯪☆☆☆Dividends:★★☆☆☆
Hot Take | Aug. 22, 2026, 4:45 a.m. EDT

The investment case for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is currently broken by a fundamental shift in its business model. The company is actively moving to liquidate its assets and wind down operations, a reality confirmed by news of index delistings and a specific target range for the final share price. This strategic pivot transforms the stock from a potential income generator into a distressed asset with a defined, likely depressed, terminal value. The 14% dividend yield is misleading; while the payout ratio appears high, the company is distributing capital to fund this exit strategy rather than sustaining organic growth. Fundamentally, the business is deteriorating as it sheds its core portfolio, and the market has already priced in a significant loss of value, with the stock trading well below book value. The options market reflects this pessimism, with traders buying deep puts to hedge against further declines. There is no compelling reason to hold or buy here; the trajectory is a controlled liquidation.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoTheta ✓0.247591
AutoETS0.250373
MSTL0.251046
AutoARIMA0.253809

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta

Forecast Reliability
Score 26%
H-stat 478.46
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.026
Excess Kurtosis -1.97
Attribute Value
Sector Real Estate
Ex Dividend Date 2026-07-15
Last Dividend Date 2026-07-15
Debt to Equity Ratio 29.599
Revenue per Share 4.557
Market Cap 878,252,864
Trailing P/E 8.67
Forward P/E 30.18
Beta 1.44
Profit Margins 21.14%
Website https://www.apollocref.com

As of Aug. 22, 2026, 4:45 a.m. EDT: Speculators are aggressively positioning for downside protection, evidenced by massive volume in out-of-the-money puts (332 contracts vs zero OTM calls) and heavy open interest at strikes significantly below the current price. While there is some call activity at distant strikes, the overwhelming flow is defensive, suggesting traders expect a continued decline or a sharp drop to test lower support levels.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
53.42% 60.84% 28.24% 22.01%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-07-16 3.75 53.418804
2026-03-31 0.25 2.367424
2025-12-31 0.25 2.582645
2025-09-30 0.25 2.467917
2025-06-30 0.25 2.582645
2025-03-31 0.25 2.612330
2024-12-31 0.25 2.886836
2024-09-30 0.25 2.720348
2024-06-28 0.35 3.575077
2024-03-27 0.35 3.193431
2023-12-28 0.35 2.887789
2023-09-28 0.35 3.434740
2023-06-29 0.35 3.100089
2023-03-30 0.35 3.858876
2022-12-29 0.35 3.225806
2022-09-29 0.35 4.186603
2022-06-29 0.35 3.407984
2022-03-30 0.35 2.527076
2021-12-30 0.35 2.681992
2021-09-29 0.35 2.333333
2021-06-29 0.35 2.209596
2021-03-30 0.35 2.463054
2020-12-30 0.35 3.113879
2020-09-29 0.35 3.893215
2020-06-29 0.35 3.549696
2020-03-30 0.40 5.517241
2019-12-30 0.46 2.519168
2019-09-27 0.46 2.404600
2019-06-27 0.46 2.516411
2019-03-28 0.46 2.521930
2018-12-28 0.46 2.733215
2018-09-27 0.46 2.439024
2018-06-28 0.46 2.509547
2018-03-28 0.46 2.579921
2017-12-28 0.46 2.470462
2017-09-28 0.46 2.534435
2017-06-28 0.46 2.465166
2017-03-29 0.46 2.458578
2016-12-28 0.46 2.791262
2016-09-28 0.46 2.791262
2016-06-28 0.46 2.909551
2016-03-29 0.46 2.855369
2015-12-29 0.46 2.631579
2015-09-28 0.44 2.815099
2015-06-26 0.44 2.619048
2015-03-27 0.44 2.577622
2014-12-29 0.40 2.409638
2014-09-26 0.40 2.490660
2014-06-26 0.40 2.440513
2014-03-27 0.40 2.439024
2013-12-27 0.40 2.436054
2013-09-26 0.40 2.604167
2013-06-26 0.40 2.510986
2013-03-26 0.40 2.322880
2012-12-27 0.40 2.452483
2012-09-26 0.40 2.321532
2012-06-27 0.40 2.487562
2012-03-28 0.40 2.549395
2011-12-28 0.40 3.048781
2011-09-28 0.40 2.994012
2011-06-28 0.40 2.489110
2011-03-29 0.40 2.447980
2010-12-29 0.40 2.452483
2010-09-28 0.40 2.472188
2010-06-28 0.35 2.066116
2010-03-29 0.35 1.960784
Additional Data
dividendRate 1.0
dividendYield 14.49
exDividendDate 2026-07-16
trailingAnnualDividendRate 1.0
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.14492753
lastDividendValue 3.75
lastDividendDate 2026-07-16
dividendDate 2026-07-15

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.34761906
Address1 9 West 57th Street
Address2 42nd Floor
All Time High 19.92
All Time Low 4.12
Ask 6.83
Ask Size 10,600
Audit Risk 3
Average Daily Volume10 Day 2,839,220
Average Daily Volume3 Month 4,264,363
Average Volume 4,264,363
Average Volume10Days 2,839,220
Beta 1.444
Bid 6.75
Bid Size 7,600
Board Risk 6
Book Value 9.787
City New York
Compensation Risk 6
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 6.85
Current Ratio 2.43
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,786,665,600
Day High 6.905
Day Low 6.785
Debt To Equity 29.599
Display Name Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance
Dividend Date 1,784,073,600
Dividend Rate 1.0
Dividend Yield 14.49
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,777,471,200
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,777,471,200
Earnings Growth -0.1
Earnings Quarterly Growth 0.243
Earnings Timestamp End 1,793,304,000
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,793,304,000
Ebitda Margins 0.0
Enterprise To Revenue 0.016
Enterprise Value 10,268,837
Eps Current Year -0.73673
Eps Forward 0.22698
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 0.79
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,784,160,000
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 8.146
Fifty Day Average Change -1.296
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.1590965
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -34.761906
Fifty Two Week High 11.24
Fifty Two Week High Change -4.39
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.3905694
Fifty Two Week Low 6.43
Fifty Two Week Low Change 0.42000008
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.06531883
Fifty Two Week Range 6.43 - 11.24
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,253,799,000,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 11.88
Float Shares 102,086,315
Forward Eps 0.22698
Forward P E 30.17887
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Fullday Change -0.0500002
Fullday Change Percent -0.72464
Fullday Price 6.85
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,785,542,400
Gross Margins 0.86444
Gross Profits 539,660,992
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.0056800004
Held Percent Institutions 0.82303
Implied Shares Outstanding 128,212,093
Industry REIT - Mortgage
Industry Disp REIT - Mortgage
Industry Key reit-mortgage
Is Earnings Date Estimate 1
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,784,160,000
Last Dividend Value 3.75
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. The company is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if the company distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is based in New York, New York.
Long Name Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 878,252,864
Market State CLOSED
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_61106447
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common 109,183,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 886,956,035
Number Of Analyst Opinions 2
Open 6.88
Operating Cashflow 86,462,000
Operating Margins 0.91247004
Overall Risk 6
Payout Ratio 0.9375
Peg Ratio 1.33
Phone 212 515 3200
Post Market Change 0.0
Post Market Change Percent 0.0
Post Market Price 6.85
Post Market Time 1,787,960,741
Previous Close 6.9
Price Eps Current Year -9.297843
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.6999081
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 1.406796
Profit Margins 0.21143
Quick Ratio 2.43
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key none
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.0500002
Regular Market Change Percent -0.72464
Regular Market Day High 6.905
Regular Market Day Low 6.785
Regular Market Day Range 6.785 - 6.905
Regular Market Open 6.88
Regular Market Previous Close 6.9
Regular Market Price 6.85
Regular Market Time 1,787,947,202
Regular Market Volume 2,007,925
Return On Assets 0.022090001
Return On Equity 0.08512
Revenue Growth 5.249
Revenue Per Share 4.557
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20204377
Sector Real Estate
Sector Disp Real Estate
Sector Key real-estate
Share Holder Rights Risk 9
Shares Outstanding 128,212,093
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.048899997
Shares Short 6,263,374
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,784,073,600
Shares Short Prior Month 4,829,386
Short Name Apollo Commercial Real Estate F
Short Percent Of Float 0.0586
Short Ratio 1.11
Source Interval 15
State NY
Symbol ARI
Target High Price 8.25
Target Low Price 7.75
Target Mean Price 8.0
Target Median Price 8.0
Total Cash 1,239,480,064
Total Cash Per Share 9.667
Total Debt 371,428,000
Total Revenue 624,292,992
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 1.0
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.14492753
Trailing Eps 0.79
Trailing P E 8.670886
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 9.90705
Two Hundred Day Average Change -3.0570502
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.30857322
Type Disp Equity
Volume 2,007,925
Website https://www.apollocref.com
Zip 10,019