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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI)

Real Estate | REIT - Mortgage | New York, United States | NYSE
6.38 USD -0.03 (-0.468%) ⇩ (Oct. 16, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 6.40 +0.02 (0.241%) ⇧ (Oct. 16, 2026, 7:33 p.m. EDT)
Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★⯪☆☆Dividends:★★☆☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 9:05 a.m. EDT

The investment case for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI) has fundamentally collapsed due to the announced decision to wind down operations and liquidate assets. While the stock trades at a depressed valuation with a 16% yield, this is a classic value trap driven by the impending cessation of business activities. The company is being delisted from major indices, and the market is correctly pricing in a terminal value scenario where the remaining cash will be distributed, likely eroding the current share price. The 16% yield is misleading; it reflects the market's expectation of a final distribution followed by a zero-value stock, not sustainable income. Fundamentally, the business is shutting down, making any long-term hold a losing proposition. Short-term, the stock faces pressure from the liquidation timeline and potential index removals, though the current price may offer a modest cushion if the final payout exceeds expectations. However, the risk of capital loss outweighs the speculative yield.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoARIMA ✓0.034313
AutoETS0.034314
MSTL0.034731
AutoTheta0.173381

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoARIMA

Forecast Reliability
Score 36%
H-stat 2.51
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.068
Excess Kurtosis -1.09
Attribute Value
Sector Real Estate
Ex Dividend Date 2026-10-29
Last Dividend Date 2026-07-15
Debt to Equity Ratio 29.599
Revenue per Share 4.557
Market Cap 817,993,216
Trailing P/E 7.98
Forward P/E 28.11
Beta 1.48
Profit Margins 21.14%
Website https://www.apollocref.com

As of Oct. 10, 2026, 9:05 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for a significant downside event rather than a recovery. Call volume is heavily skewed toward deep out-of-the-money strikes ($2.50) with massive open interest relative to volume, suggesting a 'crash' thesis. Conversely, put open interest is concentrated at higher strikes ($10.00, $12.50), indicating bets against a rebound to $10+. The implied volatility skew shows elevated pricing for downside protection compared to upside speculation, reflecting fear of the announced wind-down and asset liquidation.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
53.42% 58.37% 27.10% 21.54%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-07-16 3.75 53.418804
2026-03-31 0.25 2.367424
2025-12-31 0.25 2.582645
2025-09-30 0.25 2.467917
2025-06-30 0.25 2.582645
2025-03-31 0.25 2.612330
2024-12-31 0.25 2.886836
2024-09-30 0.25 2.720348
2024-06-28 0.35 3.575077
2024-03-27 0.35 3.193431
2023-12-28 0.35 2.887789
2023-09-28 0.35 3.434740
2023-06-29 0.35 3.100089
2023-03-30 0.35 3.858876
2022-12-29 0.35 3.225806
2022-09-29 0.35 4.186603
2022-06-29 0.35 3.407984
2022-03-30 0.35 2.527076
2021-12-30 0.35 2.681992
2021-09-29 0.35 2.333333
2021-06-29 0.35 2.209596
2021-03-30 0.35 2.463054
2020-12-30 0.35 3.113879
2020-09-29 0.35 3.893215
2020-06-29 0.35 3.549696
2020-03-30 0.40 5.517241
2019-12-30 0.46 2.519168
2019-09-27 0.46 2.404600
2019-06-27 0.46 2.516411
2019-03-28 0.46 2.521930
2018-12-28 0.46 2.733215
2018-09-27 0.46 2.439024
2018-06-28 0.46 2.509547
2018-03-28 0.46 2.579921
2017-12-28 0.46 2.470462
2017-09-28 0.46 2.534435
2017-06-28 0.46 2.465166
2017-03-29 0.46 2.458578
2016-12-28 0.46 2.791262
2016-09-28 0.46 2.791262
2016-06-28 0.46 2.909551
2016-03-29 0.46 2.855369
2015-12-29 0.46 2.631579
2015-09-28 0.44 2.815099
2015-06-26 0.44 2.619048
2015-03-27 0.44 2.577622
2014-12-29 0.40 2.409638
2014-09-26 0.40 2.490660
2014-06-26 0.40 2.440513
2014-03-27 0.40 2.439024
2013-12-27 0.40 2.436054
2013-09-26 0.40 2.604167
2013-06-26 0.40 2.510986
2013-03-26 0.40 2.322880
2012-12-27 0.40 2.452483
2012-09-26 0.40 2.321532
2012-06-27 0.40 2.487562
2012-03-28 0.40 2.549395
2011-12-28 0.40 3.048781
2011-09-28 0.40 2.994012
2011-06-28 0.40 2.489110
2011-03-29 0.40 2.447980
2010-12-29 0.40 2.452483
2010-09-28 0.40 2.472188
2010-06-28 0.35 2.066116
2010-03-29 0.35 1.960784
Additional Data
dividendRate 1.0
dividendYield 15.67
exDividendDate 2026-10-30
trailingAnnualDividendRate 1.0
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.15600625
lastDividendValue 3.75
lastDividendDate 2026-07-16
dividendDate 2026-10-29

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.37142855
Address1 9 West 57th Street
Address2 42nd Floor
All Time High 19.92
All Time Low 4.12
Ask 6.4
Ask Size 29,500
Audit Risk 2
Average Daily Volume10 Day 3,181,970
Average Daily Volume3 Month 3,156,265
Average Volume 3,156,265
Average Volume10Days 3,181,970
Beta 1.479
Bid 6.39
Bid Size 14,600
Board Risk 6
Book Value 9.787
City New York
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 6
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 6.38
Current Ratio 2.43
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,790,726,400
Day High 6.46
Day Low 6.375
Debt To Equity 29.599
Display Name Apollo Commercial RE Finance
Dividend Date 1,793,232,000
Dividend Rate 1.0
Dividend Yield 15.67
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,777,471,200
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,777,471,200
Earnings Growth -0.1
Earnings Quarterly Growth 0.243
Earnings Timestamp End 1,793,304,000
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,793,304,000
Ebitda Margins 0.0
Enterprise To Revenue -0.08
Enterprise Value -49,990,848
Eps Current Year -0.12739
Eps Forward 0.22698
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 0.8
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,793,318,400
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 20
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 6.5776
Fifty Day Average Change -0.19759989
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.030041335
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -37.142857
Fifty Two Week High 11.24
Fifty Two Week High Change -4.8599997
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.4323843
Fifty Two Week Low 6.11
Fifty Two Week Low Change 0.26999998
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.044189848
Fifty Two Week Range 6.11 - 11.24
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,253,799,000,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 11.71
Float Shares 102,042,723
Forward Eps 0.22698
Forward P E 28.108204
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Fullday Change -0.0145998
Fullday Change Percent -0.22776599
Fullday Price 6.38
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,790,812,800
Gross Margins 0.86444
Gross Profits 539,660,992
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.0056800004
Held Percent Institutions 0.82882005
Implied Shares Outstanding 128,212,093
Industry REIT - Mortgage
Industry Disp REIT - Mortgage
Industry Key reit-mortgage
Is Earnings Date Estimate 1
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,784,160,000
Last Dividend Value 3.75
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. The company is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if the company distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is based in New York, New York.
Long Name Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 817,993,216
Market State CLOSED
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_61106447
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common 109,183,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 804,687,649
Number Of Analyst Opinions 2
Open 6.44
Operating Cashflow 86,462,000
Operating Margins 0.91247004
Overall Risk 6
Payout Ratio 0.9375
Peg Ratio 1.33
Phone 212 515 3200
Post Market Change 0.015399933
Post Market Change Percent 0.24137825
Post Market Price 6.3954
Post Market Time 1,792,193,613
Previous Close 6.41
Price Eps Current Year -50.082424
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.6518852
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 1.3102714
Profit Margins 0.21143
Quick Ratio 2.43
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key none
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.0299997
Regular Market Change Percent -0.468015
Regular Market Day High 6.46
Regular Market Day Low 6.375
Regular Market Day Range 6.375 - 6.46
Regular Market Open 6.44
Regular Market Previous Close 6.41
Regular Market Price 6.38
Regular Market Time 1,792,180,802
Regular Market Volume 2,201,740
Return On Assets 0.022090001
Return On Equity 0.08512
Revenue Growth 5.249
Revenue Per Share 4.557
Sand P52 Week Change 0.13723719
Sector Real Estate
Sector Disp Real Estate
Sector Key real-estate
Share Holder Rights Risk 9
Shares Outstanding 128,212,093
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.048800003
Shares Short 6,268,375
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,788,134,400
Shares Short Prior Month 5,485,987
Short Name Apollo Commercial Real Estate F
Short Percent Of Float 0.049000002
Short Ratio 2.48
Source Interval 15
State NY
Symbol ARI
Target High Price 8.25
Target Low Price 7.75
Target Mean Price 8.0
Target Median Price 8.0
Total Cash 1,239,480,064
Total Cash Per Share 9.667
Total Debt 371,428,000
Total Revenue 624,292,992
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 1.0
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.15600625
Trailing Eps 0.8
Trailing P E 7.975
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 9.30405
Two Hundred Day Average Change -2.9240503
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.31427714
Type Disp Equity
Volume 2,201,740
Website https://www.apollocref.com
Zip 10,019