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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI)

Real Estate | REIT - Mortgage | New York, United States | NYSE
10.31 USD -0.12 (-1.151%) ⇩ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 10.35 +0.04 (0.388%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 7:42 p.m. EDT)
Short-term:★☆☆☆☆Long-term:★☆☆☆☆Dividends:★☆☆☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 5:17 a.m. EDT

The investment case for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is currently defined by a terminal event rather than a turnaround story. The company is actively liquidating its assets and has announced a special distribution, signaling that the core business model is being dismantled. While the current dividend yield appears attractive at nearly 10%, this payout is unsustainable as a permanent income stream because the underlying assets are being sold off; the payout ratio exceeds 100%, indicating the company is distributing capital it does not generate from operations. Fundamentally, the stock is trading at a discount to book value, but this is a 'value trap' driven by the impending dissolution of the entity. The multi-year price trajectory confirms this deterioration, showing a nearly 40% decline over the last nine years with the most recent annual performance still negative. Options activity reinforces this bearish thesis, with traders aggressively buying insurance against further drops. There is no compelling reason to hold equity in a company that is selling its lifeblood and distributing the proceeds; investors should expect continued volatility and likely further downside as the liquidation process unfolds.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoARIMA ✓0.018356
AutoETS0.018367
AutoTheta0.018975
MSTL0.023232

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoARIMA

Forecast Reliability
Score 42%
H-stat 5.39
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.000
Excess Kurtosis 1.53
Attribute Value
Sector Real Estate
Ex Dividend Date 2026-07-15
Last Dividend Date 2026-03-30
Debt to Equity Ratio 450.279
Revenue per Share 1.932
Market Cap 1,350,066,176
Trailing P/E 12.73
Forward P/E 14.00
Beta 1.41
Profit Margins 47.29%
Website https://www.apollocref.com

As of July 11, 2026, 5:17 a.m. EDT: Speculators are overwhelmingly positioning for downside protection, evidenced by massive open interest in out-of-the-money puts (over 25,000 contracts at the $10 strike) compared to negligible call volume. This 'naked put' positioning suggests a consensus expectation of significant further price weakness rather than a bounce. The implied volatility structure reflects this fear, with deep OTM puts commanding higher premiums relative to the near-term call skew.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
2.37% 7.42% 10.44% 11.33%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-03-31 0.25 2.367424
2025-12-31 0.25 2.582645
2025-09-30 0.25 2.467917
2025-06-30 0.25 2.582645
2025-03-31 0.25 2.612330
2024-12-31 0.25 2.886836
2024-09-30 0.25 2.720348
2024-06-28 0.35 3.575077
2024-03-27 0.35 3.193431
2023-12-28 0.35 2.887789
2023-09-28 0.35 3.434740
2023-06-29 0.35 3.100089
2023-03-30 0.35 3.858876
2022-12-29 0.35 3.225806
2022-09-29 0.35 4.186603
2022-06-29 0.35 3.407984
2022-03-30 0.35 2.527076
2021-12-30 0.35 2.681992
2021-09-29 0.35 2.333333
2021-06-29 0.35 2.209596
2021-03-30 0.35 2.463054
2020-12-30 0.35 3.113879
2020-09-29 0.35 3.893215
2020-06-29 0.35 3.549696
2020-03-30 0.40 5.517241
2019-12-30 0.46 2.519168
2019-09-27 0.46 2.404600
2019-06-27 0.46 2.516411
2019-03-28 0.46 2.521930
2018-12-28 0.46 2.733215
2018-09-27 0.46 2.439024
2018-06-28 0.46 2.509547
2018-03-28 0.46 2.579921
2017-12-28 0.46 2.470462
2017-09-28 0.46 2.534435
2017-06-28 0.46 2.465166
2017-03-29 0.46 2.458578
2016-12-28 0.46 2.791262
2016-09-28 0.46 2.791262
2016-06-28 0.46 2.909551
2016-03-29 0.46 2.855369
2015-12-29 0.46 2.631579
2015-09-28 0.44 2.815099
2015-06-26 0.44 2.619048
2015-03-27 0.44 2.577622
2014-12-29 0.40 2.409638
2014-09-26 0.40 2.490660
2014-06-26 0.40 2.440513
2014-03-27 0.40 2.439024
2013-12-27 0.40 2.436054
2013-09-26 0.40 2.604167
2013-06-26 0.40 2.510986
2013-03-26 0.40 2.322880
2012-12-27 0.40 2.452483
2012-09-26 0.40 2.321532
2012-06-27 0.40 2.487562
2012-03-28 0.40 2.549395
2011-12-28 0.40 3.048781
2011-09-28 0.40 2.994012
2011-06-28 0.40 2.489110
2011-03-29 0.40 2.447980
2010-12-29 0.40 2.452483
2010-09-28 0.40 2.472188
2010-06-28 0.35 2.066116
2010-03-29 0.35 1.960784
Additional Data
dividendRate 1.0
dividendYield 9.59
exDividendDate 2026-07-16
trailingAnnualDividendRate 1.0
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.095877275
lastDividendValue 0.25
lastDividendDate 2026-03-31
dividendDate 2026-07-15

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.044044018
Address1 9 West 57th Street
Address2 42nd Floor
All Time High 19.92
All Time Low 4.12
Ask 0.0
Ask Size 4,600
Audit Risk 3
Average Daily Volume10 Day 6,572,930
Average Daily Volume3 Month 2,391,693
Average Volume 2,391,693
Average Volume10Days 6,572,930
Beta 1.405
Bid 0.0
Bid Size 9,000
Board Risk 6
Book Value 13.25
City New York
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 6
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 10.31
Current Ratio 6.723
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 10.47
Day Low 10.275
Debt To Equity 450.279
Display Name Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance
Dividend Date 1,784,073,600
Dividend Rate 1.0
Dividend Yield 9.59
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,777,471,200
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,777,471,200
Earnings Growth 0.0
Earnings Quarterly Growth 0.009
Earnings Timestamp 1,777,406,400
Earnings Timestamp End 1,777,406,400
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,777,406,400
Ebitda Margins 0.0
Enterprise To Revenue 34.948
Enterprise Value 9,382,797,312
Eps Current Year 0.46015
Eps Forward 0.73628
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 0.81
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,784,160,000
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 10.8
Fifty Day Average Change -0.48999977
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.045370348
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 4.404402
Fifty Two Week High 11.24
Fifty Two Week High Change -0.92999935
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.08274016
Fifty Two Week Low 9.49
Fifty Two Week Low Change 0.82000065
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.08640681
Fifty Two Week Range 9.49 - 11.24
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,253,799,000,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 11.77
Float Shares 123,584,764
Forward Eps 0.73628
Forward P E 14.002825
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,782,864,000
Gross Margins 0.6921
Gross Profits 185,811,008
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.00714
Held Percent Institutions 0.77125
Implied Shares Outstanding 130,947,251
Industry REIT - Mortgage
Industry Disp REIT - Mortgage
Industry Key reit-mortgage
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,774,915,200
Last Dividend Value 0.25
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. The company is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if the company distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is based in New York, New York.
Long Name Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 1,350,066,176
Market State PREPRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_61106447
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common 112,140,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 1,365,779,827
Number Of Analyst Opinions 3
Open 10.43
Operating Cashflow 115,766,000
Operating Margins 0.41429
Overall Risk 6
Payout Ratio 1.2346
Peg Ratio 1.33
Phone 212 515 3200
Post Market Change 0.03999996
Post Market Change Percent 0.38797244
Post Market Price 10.35
Post Market Time 1,783,986,145
Previous Close 10.43
Price Eps Current Year 22.405739
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.77811325
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 5.0286474
Profit Margins 0.47287998
Quick Ratio 6.723
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key none
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.12
Regular Market Change Percent -1.15053
Regular Market Day High 10.47
Regular Market Day Low 10.275
Regular Market Day Range 10.275 - 10.47
Regular Market Open 10.43
Regular Market Previous Close 10.43
Regular Market Price 10.31
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,802
Regular Market Volume 1,817,238
Return On Assets 0.013459999
Return On Equity 0.06914
Revenue Growth 0.002
Revenue Per Share 1.932
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20847368
Sector Real Estate
Sector Disp Real Estate
Sector Key real-estate
Share Holder Rights Risk 9
Shares Outstanding 130,947,251
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0546
Shares Short 7,143,753
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 5,941,548
Short Name Apollo Commercial Real Estate F
Short Percent Of Float 0.0652
Short Ratio 2.01
Source Interval 15
State NY
Symbol ARI
Target High Price 12.0
Target Low Price 11.5
Target Mean Price 11.83333
Target Median Price 12.0
Total Cash 144,619,008
Total Cash Per Share 1.089
Total Debt 8,157,667,840
Total Revenue 268,475,008
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 1.0
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.095877275
Trailing Eps 0.81
Trailing P E 12.728395
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 10.4229
Two Hundred Day Average Change -0.11289978
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.010831897
Type Disp Equity
Volume 1,817,238
Website https://www.apollocref.com
Zip 10,019