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Alerus Financial Corporation (ALRS)

Financial Services | Banks - Regional | Grand Forks, United States | NasdaqCM
31.00 USD +0.01 (0.032%) ⇧ (Oct. 14, 2026, 11:43 a.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★★☆☆Dividends:★★★☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 9:14 a.m. EDT

Alerus Financial presents a classic value trap scenario where attractive valuation metrics mask a deteriorating operational reality. While the forward P/E of 11x looks compelling, it is propping up a stock that has suffered a significant multi-year decline, dropping nearly 29% in the trailing twelve months. The business fundamentals are under pressure: revenue growth has slowed to a modest 7%, and more critically, earnings growth has stalled at just 3%, indicating the core franchise is losing steam. The balance sheet is also concerning, with a payout ratio nearing 79% and a short interest of over 5%, which often signals deep-seated skepticism among institutional holders. The recent news of nonperforming loan offloading without charge-offs is a double-edged sword; while it cleans up the books, it highlights the credit quality issues plaguing the regional banking sector. The price action confirms this distress, trading well below its 200-day average despite a recent analyst upgrade based on 'fair value'—a label that feels like a ceiling rather than a floor given the secular headwinds. For investors, the dividend yield of 2.8% is enticing but carries hidden risks. With a payout ratio approaching 80% and earnings growth barely keeping pace with the dividend hikes, there is little margin of safety if earnings miss again. The stock is not a buy-and-hold compounder; it is a speculative bet on a turnaround that the market has already largely priced in. Until earnings growth accelerates decisively and the credit cycle stabilizes, the risk-reward profile remains skewed toward the downside.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL ✓0.017565
AutoETS0.020202
AutoARIMA0.020203
AutoTheta0.029426

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL

Forecast Reliability
Score 48%
H-stat 6.37
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.433
Excess Kurtosis -0.45
Attribute Value
Sector Financial Services
Ex Dividend Date 2026-09-24
Last Dividend Date 2026-09-24
Revenue per Share 9.556
Market Cap 772,753,280
Trailing P/E 28.70
Forward P/E 11.03
Beta 0.71
Profit Margins 11.45%
Website https://www.alerus.com

As of Oct. 10, 2026, 9:14 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning defensively with heavy out-of-the-money put volume relative to calls, creating a skewed risk profile where downside protection is favored over upside speculation. The implied volatility surface shows elevated premiums for near-term puts compared to calls, suggesting a market consensus of potential near-term weakness or stagnation rather than a breakout.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.68% 3.25% 3.67% 3.53%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-09-25 0.220000 0.683867
2026-06-26 0.220000 0.713822
2026-03-27 0.210000 0.890963
2025-12-26 0.210000 0.965074
2025-09-26 0.210000 0.928382
2025-06-27 0.210000 0.957592
2025-03-14 0.200000 1.093494
2024-12-27 0.200000 1.040583
2024-09-13 0.200000 0.929368
2024-06-14 0.200000 1.088139
2024-03-14 0.190000 0.887021
2023-12-26 0.190000 0.837004
2023-09-14 0.190000 1.001054
2023-06-14 0.190000 1.064426
2023-03-14 0.180000 1.095557
2022-12-22 0.180000 0.778547
2022-09-29 0.180000 0.815587
2022-06-16 0.180000 0.782269
2022-03-17 0.160000 0.547196
2021-12-22 0.160000 0.554593
2021-09-16 0.160000 0.574713
2021-06-17 0.160000 0.506329
2021-03-18 0.150000 0.452489
2020-12-17 0.150000 0.541712
2020-09-17 0.150000 0.676895
2020-06-12 0.150000 0.741473
2020-03-19 0.150000 0.932836
2019-12-19 0.150000 0.648789
2019-09-19 0.140000 0.640439
2019-06-20 0.140000 0.740741
2019-03-21 0.140000 0.707071
2018-12-20 0.140000 0.713921
2018-09-20 0.130000 0.541667
2018-06-21 0.130000 0.498084
2018-03-22 0.130000 0.559140
2017-12-21 0.120000 0.586797
2017-09-21 0.120000 0.589681
2017-06-21 0.120000 0.629921
2017-03-22 0.120000 0.638298
2016-12-21 0.110000 0.670732
2016-09-21 0.110000 0.645161
2016-06-15 0.110000 0.622172
2016-03-16 0.110000 0.596206
2015-12-16 0.110000 0.580475
2015-09-16 0.110000 0.523810
2015-06-17 0.100000 0.491400
2015-03-18 0.100000 0.519481
2014-12-17 0.100000 0.500000
2014-09-18 0.100000 0.476417
2014-06-18 0.093333 0.523852
2014-03-19 0.090000 0.545344
2013-12-18 0.086667 0.504856
2013-09-18 0.086667 0.610905
2013-06-19 0.083333 0.665422
2013-03-20 0.083333 0.714283
2012-09-19 0.080000 0.774194
2012-06-20 0.076667 0.845592
2012-03-21 0.076667 0.814163
2011-12-21 0.076667 0.901965
2011-09-21 0.073333 0.946232
2011-06-15 0.073333 0.822426
2011-03-16 0.073333 0.846150
2010-12-21 0.073333 0.897589
2010-09-15 0.073333 0.888885
2010-06-16 0.073333 0.897955
2010-03-17 0.073333 0.952377
2009-12-16 0.070000 0.933333
2009-09-18 0.070000 0.903226
2009-06-17 0.070000 0.965517
2009-03-18 0.070000 0.913043
2008-12-17 0.070000 0.909091
2008-09-17 0.066667 0.625003
2008-06-18 0.060000 0.591133
2008-03-18 0.060000 0.579710
2007-12-19 0.060000 0.545455
2007-09-19 0.060000 0.541353
2007-06-20 0.058333 0.526313
2007-03-21 0.056667 0.527135
2006-12-22 0.056667 0.503707
2006-09-21 0.053333 0.484845
2006-06-21 0.053333 0.528922
2006-03-22 0.050000 0.512821
2005-12-30 0.050000 0.540541
2005-09-21 0.048333 0.514728
2005-06-15 0.048333 0.586328
2005-03-16 0.046667 0.565661
2004-12-21 0.045000 0.589005
2004-09-15 0.045000 0.720000
2004-06-16 0.043333 0.722217
2004-03-17 0.041667 0.714291
2003-12-17 0.041667 0.842609
2003-09-17 0.040000 0.813559
2003-06-18 0.038333 0.793097
Additional Data
dividendYield 2.84
exDividendDate 2026-09-25
trailingAnnualDividendRate 0.85
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.027428204
lastDividendValue 0.22
lastDividendDate 2026-09-25
dividendDate 2026-10-09

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.4294281
Address1 401 Demers Avenue
All Time High 38.31
All Time Low 4.548333
Ask 39.61
Ask Size 2
Audit Risk 9
Average Analyst Rating 2.6 - Hold
Average Daily Volume10 Day 176,730
Average Daily Volume3 Month 184,176
Average Volume 184,176
Average Volume10Days 176,730
Beta 0.705
Bid 22.33
Bid Size 2
Board Risk 3
Book Value 23.339
City Grand Forks
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 1
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 31.0
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,790,726,400
Day High 31.0
Day Low 30.435
Display Name Alerus Financial
Dividend Date 1,791,504,000
Dividend Yield 2.84
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,793,304,000
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,793,304,000
Earnings Growth 0.038
Earnings Quarterly Growth 0.03
Earnings Timestamp 1,793,217,600
Earnings Timestamp End 1,793,217,600
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,793,217,600
Ebitda Margins 0.0
Enterprise To Revenue 4.58
Enterprise Value 1,107,921,408
Eps Current Year 3.016
Eps Forward 2.81
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 1.08
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,790,294,400
Exchange NCM
Exchange Data Delayed By 15
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 32.7814
Fifty Day Average Change -1.7813988
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.054341756
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 42.94281
Fifty Two Week High 34.4
Fifty Two Week High Change -3.4000015
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.09883725
Fifty Two Week Low 20.31
Fifty Two Week Low Change 10.690001
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.52634174
Fifty Two Week Range 20.31 - 34.4
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,048,170,600,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 3.22
Float Shares 23,001,876
Forward Eps 2.81
Forward P E 11.032029
Full Exchange Name NasdaqCM
Full Time Employees 821
Fullday Change 0.010000229
Fullday Change Percent 0.032269213
Fullday Price 31.0
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,790,812,800
Gross Margins 0.0
Gross Profits 241,900,992
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.084709994
Held Percent Institutions 0.67246
Implied Shares Outstanding 24,927,526
Industry Banks - Regional
Industry Disp Banks - Regional
Industry Key banks-regional
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,790,294,400
Last Dividend Value 0.22
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Last Split Date 1,410,739,200
Last Split Factor 3:1
Long Business Summary Alerus Financial Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Alerus Financial, National Association that provides various financial services to businesses and consumers in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Banking, Retirement and Benefit Services, and Wealth. It offers demand deposits, interest-bearing transaction accounts, money market accounts, time and savings deposits, noninterest-bearing deposits, interest-bearing checking accounts, and certificates of deposit; and treasury management products, including electronic receivables management, remote deposit capture, cash vault, merchant, and other cash management services. The company also provides commercial loans, business term loans, and lines of credit; commercial real estate, and commercial and industrial loans; consumer lending products, including residential first mortgage loans; and installment loans, and loans collateralized by cash and marketable securities. In addition, it offers retirement plan, and investment advisory services, employee stock ownership plan, investment fiduciary services, health savings accounts, flex spending accounts, COBRA recordkeeping, and other administration services, as well as individual retirement accounts; and financial planning, investment management, personal and corporate trust, estate administration, and custody services. Further, the company provides debit cards, personal and business loans, credit cards, online and mobile banking/wallet, private banking, deposit and payment solutions, mortgages, administration, and government health insurance program services. The company was formerly known as First National Bank North Dakota and changed its name to Alerus Financial Corporation in 2000. Alerus Financial Corporation was founded in 1879 and is headquartered in Grand Forks, North Dakota.
Long Name Alerus Financial Corporation
Market us_market
Market Cap 772,753,280
Market State REGULAR
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_2954861
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common 27,568,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 791,947,501
Number Of Analyst Opinions 5
Open 30.63
Operating Cashflow 95,538,000
Operating Margins 0.36492002
Overall Risk 3
Payout Ratio 0.78699994
Phone 701 795 3200
Previous Close 30.99
Price Eps Current Year 10.278515
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 1.3282489
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 3.1945024
Profit Margins 0.11454
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key hold
Recommendation Mean 2.6
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.010000229
Regular Market Change Percent 0.032269213
Regular Market Day High 31.0
Regular Market Day Low 30.435
Regular Market Day Range 30.435 - 31.0
Regular Market Open 30.63
Regular Market Previous Close 30.99
Regular Market Price 31.0
Regular Market Time 1,791,992,626
Regular Market Volume 19,876
Return On Assets 0.00522
Return On Equity 0.049640004
Revenue Growth 0.072
Revenue Per Share 9.556
Sand P52 Week Change 0.17004645
Sector Financial Services
Sector Disp Financial Services
Sector Key financial-services
Share Holder Rights Risk 3
Shares Outstanding 24,927,526
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0511
Shares Short 1,272,768
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,788,134,400
Shares Short Prior Month 1,252,154
Short Name Alerus Financial Corporation
Short Percent Of Float 0.053400002
Short Ratio 7.28
Source Interval 15
State ND
Symbol ALRS
Target High Price 38.0
Target Low Price 32.0
Target Mean Price 35.2
Target Median Price 35.0
Total Cash 117,975,000
Total Cash Per Share 4.737
Total Debt 454,144,992
Total Revenue 241,900,992
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.85
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.027428204
Trailing Eps 1.08
Trailing P E 28.703703
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 28.2372
Two Hundred Day Average Change 2.7628002
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.097842574
Type Disp Equity
Volume 19,876
Website https://www.alerus.com
Zip 58,201