Alumis Inc. (ALMS)Healthcare | Biotechnology | South San Francisco, United States | NasdaqGS
6.31 USD
+0.25
(4.125%)
⇧
(Oct. 15, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
After hours: 6.21 -0.10 (-0.100%) ⇩ (Oct. 15, 2026, 6:27 p.m. EDT) |
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 5:19 a.m. EDT
The investment case for Alumis is currently broken by a perfect storm of deteriorating fundamentals and overwhelming market skepticism. The company is hemorrhaging cash, with operating cash flow at -$351 million against mere $7.4 million in revenue, while revenue itself has contracted by nearly 38% year-over-year. Despite a 'strong buy' analyst recommendation driven by pipeline hype, the market has priced this reality in, sending the stock down 57% over the last year and trading at a premium valuation despite negative earnings. The options market confirms this pessimism, with traders flooding the book with puts, creating a heavy wall of downside protection that suggests a continued grind lower is the probable path until a clinical trial success can reverse the narrative. There is no dividend to provide income, and the balance sheet, while currently liquid, is being drained rapidly by burn rates that far exceed revenue generation. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| AutoARIMA ✓ | 0.527923 |
| AutoETS | 0.551071 |
| MSTL | 0.568117 |
| AutoTheta | 0.595478 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoARIMA
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 22% |
| H-stat | 625.15 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.040 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -1.70 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Healthcare |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 8.056 |
| Revenue per Share | 0.064 |
| Market Cap | 816,736,384 |
| Forward P/E | -2.20 |
| Beta | -0.37 |
| Website | https://www.alumis.com |
As of Oct. 10, 2026, 5:19 a.m. EDT: Speculators are aggressively positioning for downside protection, evidenced by massive put volume and open interest relative to calls, particularly in the January 2027 expiration where put volume dwarfs call volume. While there is some speculative call activity at distant strikes (25-40 range) suggesting a binary event hope, the overwhelming capital flow is into out-of-the-money puts, indicating a fear of significant further decline rather than a belief in a near-term rally.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | 0.3145336 |
| Address1 | 280 East Grand Avenue |
| All Time High | 31.35 |
| All Time Low | 2.76 |
| Ask | 7.83 |
| Ask Size | 2 |
| Audit Risk | 6 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 1.3 - Strong Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 2,255,970 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 2,468,517 |
| Average Volume | 2,468,517 |
| Average Volume10Days | 2,255,970 |
| Beta | -0.365 |
| Bid | 4.61 |
| Bid Size | 2 |
| Board Risk | 8 |
| Book Value | 3.519 |
| City | South San Francisco |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 8 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 6.31 |
| Current Ratio | 6.744 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,790,726,400 |
| Day High | 6.5 |
| Day Low | 6.08 |
| Debt To Equity | 8.056 |
| Display Name | Alumis |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,794,513,600 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,794,513,600 |
| Ebitda | -421,448,992 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.0 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | -0.833 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 47.428 |
| Enterprise Value | 350,870,368 |
| Eps Current Year | -3.32 |
| Eps Forward | -2.87333 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -3.56 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NMS |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 15 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 14.4216 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -8.111601 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.5624619 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | 31.45336 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 31.35 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -25.04 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.7987241 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 4.37 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 1.94 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.44393596 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 4.37 - 31.35 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,719,581,400,000 |
| Float Shares | 91,343,743 |
| Forward Eps | -2.87333 |
| Forward P E | -2.196058 |
| Free Cashflow | -208,637,632 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGS |
| Full Time Employees | 237 |
| Fullday Change | 0.1500001 |
| Fullday Change Percent | 2.475249 |
| Fullday Price | 6.31 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,790,812,800 |
| Gross Margins | 1.0 |
| Gross Profits | 7,398,000 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.00526 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.93498003 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 129,435,239 |
| Industry | Biotechnology |
| Industry Disp | Biotechnology |
| Industry Key | biotechnology |
| Ipo Expected Date | 2,024-06-28 |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Long Business Summary | Alumis Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of medicines for autoimmune disorders. The company offers envudeucitinib, a tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitor for the treatment of plaque psoriasis and systemic lupus erythematosus; and A-005, a central nervous system-penetrant allosteric TYK2 inhibitor that is in Phase 1 for the treatment of neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases. It also develops lonigutamab, a monoclonal antibody targeting IGF-1R for the treatment of thyroid eye diseases; and interferon regulatory factor 5 (IRF5) to address immune dysfunction. The company was formerly known as Esker Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Alumis Inc. in January 2022. Alumis Inc. was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California. |
| Long Name | Alumis Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 816,736,384 |
| Market State | POSTPOST |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_705657695 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,782,777,600 |
| Net Income To Common | -438,956,992 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 991,868,941 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 8 |
| Open | 6.11 |
| Operating Cashflow | -351,398,016 |
| Operating Margins | -64.39892 |
| Overall Risk | 10 |
| Phone | 650 231 6625 |
| Post Market Change | -0.099999905 |
| Post Market Change Percent | -1.5847845 |
| Post Market Price | 6.21 |
| Post Market Time | 1,792,103,221 |
| Previous Close | 6.06 |
| Price Eps Current Year | -1.9006025 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 1.793123 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 110.39962 |
| Profit Margins | 0.0 |
| Quick Ratio | 6.64 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | strong_buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 1.3 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 0.25 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 4.12541 |
| Regular Market Day High | 6.5 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 6.08 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 6.08 - 6.5 |
| Regular Market Open | 6.11 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 6.06 |
| Regular Market Price | 6.31 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,792,094,401 |
| Regular Market Volume | 2,786,160 |
| Return On Assets | -0.45344 |
| Return On Equity | -0.93646 |
| Revenue Growth | -0.377 |
| Revenue Per Share | 0.064 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.16440773 |
| Sector | Healthcare |
| Sector Disp | Healthcare |
| Sector Key | healthcare |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 10 |
| Shares Outstanding | 129,435,239 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.0795 |
| Shares Short | 10,295,705 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,788,134,400 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 5,645,753 |
| Short Name | Alumis Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.13260001 |
| Short Ratio | 2.11 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | CA |
| Symbol | ALMS |
| Target High Price | 46.0 |
| Target Low Price | 15.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 31.125 |
| Target Median Price | 28.0 |
| Total Cash | 502,292,992 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 3.881 |
| Total Debt | 36,427,000 |
| Total Revenue | 7,398,000 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | -3.56 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 21.954124 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -15.644125 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.7125825 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 2,786,160 |
| Website | https://www.alumis.com |
| Zip | 94,080 |