Alumis Inc. (ALMS)Healthcare | Biotechnology | South San Francisco, United States | NasdaqGS
28.10 USD
-0.21
(-0.742%) ⇩
(July 13, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
After hours: 28.10 |
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 6:10 a.m. EDT
The investment case for Alumis is currently bifurcated between a compelling narrative and a broken balance sheet. Fundamentally, the company is in distress: revenue has collapsed by 90%, operating margins are deeply negative, and the stock has erased over 70% of its value in the last year. While the pipeline shows promise with positive Phase 3 psoriasis data and strong analyst sentiment, the financial reality is stark—negative free cash flow and a lack of profitability suggest the business is burning capital without generating returns. The short-term outlook remains murky; despite the recent price recovery, the statistical forecasting models offer virtually no directional guidance due to extreme volatility and low reliability. Options data confirms this uncertainty, with traders aggressively buying cheap puts to hedge against further downside rather than betting on a sustained uptrend. Until the company demonstrates a path to profitability or a definitive commercialization milestone that justifies the massive valuation premium, the risk-reward profile remains skewed heavily toward caution. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| MSTL ✓ | 0.089349 |
| AutoTheta | 0.093915 |
| AutoETS | 0.096095 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.096725 |
| MSTL_102 | 0.272177 |
Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: MSTL
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 28% |
| H-stat | 4.64 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.804 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -0.38 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Healthcare |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 6.29 |
| Revenue per Share | 0.082 |
| Market Cap | 3,582,524,672 |
| Forward P/E | -9.51 |
| Beta | -0.71 |
| Website | https://www.alumis.com |
As of July 11, 2026, 6:10 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning defensively with heavy put volume concentrated in the near term (July and August), particularly at strikes significantly below the current price (e.g., $2, $4, $10), suggesting a fear of a sharp drop or a 'naked' short gamma event. Conversely, call activity is sparse and skewed toward deep out-of-the-money strikes ($40, $55 implied by news context), indicating a speculative hope for a binary catalyst-driven spike rather than a steady grind higher. The imbalance in open interest favors downside protection, while the lack of significant call open interest suggests the market does not expect a controlled rally.
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | 6.8638887 |
| Address1 | 280 East Grand Avenue |
| All Time High | 31.35 |
| All Time Low | 2.76 |
| Ask | 35.02 |
| Ask Size | 2 |
| Audit Risk | 7 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 1.3 - Strong Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 2,352,150 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 1,342,472 |
| Average Volume | 1,342,472 |
| Average Volume10Days | 2,352,150 |
| Beta | -0.713 |
| Bid | 20.24 |
| Bid Size | 2 |
| Board Risk | 8 |
| Book Value | 4.457 |
| City | South San Francisco |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 8 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 28.1 |
| Current Ratio | 7.509 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,782,777,600 |
| Day High | 28.35 |
| Day Low | 27.18 |
| Debt To Equity | 6.29 |
| Display Name | Alumis |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,778,788,800 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,786,564,800 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,786,564,800 |
| Ebitda | -435,260,992 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.0 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | -7.111 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 368.394 |
| Enterprise Value | 3,095,245,568 |
| Eps Current Year | -2.902 |
| Eps Forward | -2.954 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -1.78 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Exchange | NMS |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 23.7329 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | 4.3671 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | 0.18401037 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | 686.38885 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 31.35 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -3.25 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.10366826 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 3.245 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 24.855 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 7.6594763 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 3.245 - 31.35 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 1,719,581,400,000 |
| Float Shares | 85,842,900 |
| Forward Eps | -2.954 |
| Forward P E | -9.512526 |
| Free Cashflow | -206,754,624 |
| Full Exchange Name | NasdaqGS |
| Full Time Employees | 225 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,782,864,000 |
| Gross Margins | 1.0 |
| Gross Profits | 8,402,000 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.0061799996 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.99881 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 127,491,980 |
| Industry | Biotechnology |
| Industry Disp | Biotechnology |
| Industry Key | biotechnology |
| Ipo Expected Date | 2,024-06-28 |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Long Business Summary | Alumis Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of medicines for autoimmune disorders. The company offers envudeucitinib, a tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitor for the treatment of plaque psoriasis and systemic lupus erythematosus; and A-005, a central nervous system-penetrant allosteric TYK2 inhibitor that is in Phase 1 for the treatment of neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases. It also develops lonigutamab, a monoclonal antibody targeting IGF-1R for the treatment of thyroid eye diseases; and interferon regulatory factor 5 (IRF5) to address immune dysfunction. The company was formerly known as Esker Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Alumis Inc. in January 2022. Alumis Inc. was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California. |
| Long Name | Alumis Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 3,582,524,672 |
| Market State | POSTPOST |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_705657695 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,774,915,200 |
| Net Income To Common | -237,415,008 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 3,610,572,873 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 10 |
| Open | 28.07 |
| Operating Cashflow | -376,249,984 |
| Operating Margins | -56.52441 |
| Overall Risk | 10 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Phone | 650 231 6625 |
| Post Market Change | 0.0 |
| Post Market Change Percent | 0.0 |
| Post Market Price | 28.1 |
| Post Market Time | 1,783,981,118 |
| Previous Close | 28.31 |
| Price Eps Current Year | -9.682978 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 6.30469 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 426.3895 |
| Profit Margins | 0.0 |
| Quick Ratio | 7.414 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | strong_buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 1.27273 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | -0.209999 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | -0.741784 |
| Regular Market Day High | 28.35 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 27.18 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 27.18 - 28.35 |
| Regular Market Open | 28.07 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 28.31 |
| Regular Market Price | 28.1 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,783,972,801 |
| Regular Market Volume | 1,207,169 |
| Return On Assets | -0.58794 |
| Return On Equity | -0.64572996 |
| Revenue Growth | -0.9 |
| Revenue Per Share | 0.082 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20847368 |
| Sector | Healthcare |
| Sector Disp | Healthcare |
| Sector Key | healthcare |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 10 |
| Shares Outstanding | 123,432,072 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.1121 |
| Shares Short | 14,294,503 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,780,012,800 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 11,072,158 |
| Short Name | Alumis Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.19950001 |
| Short Ratio | 8.48 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | CA |
| Symbol | ALMS |
| Target High Price | 55.0 |
| Target Low Price | 25.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 40.1 |
| Target Median Price | 39.5 |
| Total Cash | 522,943,008 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 4.102 |
| Total Debt | 35,664,000 |
| Total Revenue | 8,402,000 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | -1.78 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 18.18255 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | 9.91745 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | 0.54543775 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 1,207,169 |
| Website | https://www.alumis.com |
| Zip | 94,080 |