Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK)Industrials | Airlines | Seattle, United States | NYSE
42.32 USD
+0.12
(0.284%)
⇧
(Aug. 28, 2026, 4 p.m.
EDT)
After hours: 42.63 +0.31 (0.733%) ⇧ (Aug. 28, 2026, 7:46 p.m. EDT) |
Hot Take ↕ | Aug. 22, 2026, 2:57 a.m. EDT
The immediate outlook for Alaska Air remains precarious due to deteriorating operational fundamentals. Despite a recent surge in revenue growth (+9.7%), the company is bleeding cash, with operating margins sitting at -2.9% and free cash flow turning negative. This financial strain is exacerbated by a massive spike in fuel costs (+85%), which is eroding profitability despite the top-line gains. The balance sheet is fragile, carrying a debt-to-equity ratio of 207%, which limits flexibility during volatile fuel price environments. While the forward P/E of 6.9 looks attractive on paper, it is misleading because the trailing EPS is negative (-$1.61). The market is pricing in a turnaround, but the recent quarterly loss and lagging estimates suggest that execution is difficult. The stock has underperformed significantly over the last decade, dropping roughly 11% cumulatively over the nine-year window, indicating a persistent structural issue rather than a temporary dip. Technically, the stock is struggling, trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, confirming a downtrend. There is no dividend to provide income, making the investment purely speculative on a recovery. While analysts maintain a 'Strong Buy' rating with a target price nearly double the current level, the disconnect between the optimistic consensus and the grim quarterly reality creates significant risk. Until operating margins turn positive and fuel costs stabilize, the investment case remains weak. |
| Model | MAE |
|---|---|
| AutoETS ✓ | 0.124929 |
| AutoARIMA | 0.127581 |
| MSTL | 0.145181 |
| AutoTheta | 0.191876 |
Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoETS
| Forecast Reliability | |
|---|---|
| Score | 38% |
| H-stat | 5.53 |
| Ljung-Box p | 0.000 |
| Jarque-Bera p | 0.460 |
| Excess Kurtosis | -0.69 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Sector | Industrials |
| Ex Dividend Date | 2020-02-13 |
| Last Dividend Date | 2020-02-13 |
| Debt to Equity Ratio | 207.52 |
| Revenue per Share | 129.463 |
| Market Cap | 4,721,513,984 |
| Forward P/E | 7.54 |
| Beta | 1.30 |
| Profit Margins | -1.18% |
| Website | https://www.alaskaair.com |
As of Aug. 22, 2026, 2:57 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for continued volatility rather than a clear directional breakout. Call volume is heavily skewed toward out-of-the-money strikes (55 and 60), suggesting a hope for a recovery to historical highs, while put volume concentrates around the 35-40 range, acting as a floor. The massive IV spike on deep out-of-the-money puts indicates fear of a further drop, yet the lack of significant put volume at lower strikes suggests the market views a crash as less probable than a grind lower. Overall, the options flow reflects a 'wait and see' sentiment amidst earnings uncertainty, with traders hedging against downside while retaining a speculative long bias.
| Date | Dividend | Yield % |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-14 | 0.37500 | 0.567236 |
| 2019-11-18 | 0.35000 | 0.499572 |
| 2019-08-19 | 0.35000 | 0.577653 |
| 2019-05-20 | 0.35000 | 0.564972 |
| 2019-02-15 | 0.35000 | 0.527744 |
| 2018-11-19 | 0.32000 | 0.475483 |
| 2018-08-20 | 0.32000 | 0.478755 |
| 2018-05-21 | 0.32000 | 0.552295 |
| 2018-02-16 | 0.32000 | 0.492535 |
| 2017-11-20 | 0.30000 | 0.453858 |
| 2017-08-18 | 0.30000 | 0.382409 |
| 2017-05-19 | 0.30000 | 0.354736 |
| 2017-02-16 | 0.30000 | 0.310270 |
| 2016-11-10 | 0.27500 | 0.366813 |
| 2016-08-16 | 0.27500 | 0.416667 |
| 2016-05-20 | 0.27500 | 0.421714 |
| 2016-02-19 | 0.27500 | 0.380149 |
| 2015-11-13 | 0.20000 | 0.263296 |
| 2015-08-14 | 0.20000 | 0.251256 |
| 2015-05-19 | 0.20000 | 0.298552 |
| 2015-02-20 | 0.20000 | 0.311818 |
| 2014-11-14 | 0.12500 | 0.225876 |
| 2014-08-15 | 0.12500 | 0.274967 |
| 2014-05-21 | 0.12500 | 0.260743 |
| 2014-02-21 | 0.12500 | 0.306598 |
| 2013-11-15 | 0.10000 | 0.264585 |
| 2013-08-02 | 0.10000 | 0.316857 |
| 1992-10-08 | 0.01250 | 0.314961 |
| 1992-07-09 | 0.01250 | 0.264901 |
| 1992-04-09 | 0.01250 | 0.285714 |
| 1992-01-09 | 0.01250 | 0.227273 |
| 1991-10-08 | 0.01250 | 0.248447 |
| 1991-07-09 | 0.01250 | 0.218579 |
| 1991-04-09 | 0.01250 | 0.202020 |
| 1991-01-09 | 0.01250 | 0.275862 |
| 1990-10-05 | 0.01250 | 0.294118 |
| 1990-07-09 | 0.01250 | 0.220994 |
| 1990-04-06 | 0.01250 | 0.210526 |
| 1990-01-08 | 0.01250 | 0.232558 |
| 1989-10-06 | 0.01250 | 0.185185 |
| 1989-07-10 | 0.01250 | 0.176211 |
| 1989-04-10 | 0.01250 | 0.201005 |
| 1989-01-09 | 0.01250 | 0.242424 |
| 1988-10-07 | 0.01000 | 0.180791 |
| 1988-07-11 | 0.01000 | 0.205128 |
| 1988-04-11 | 0.01000 | 0.238806 |
| 1988-01-11 | 0.01000 | 0.273504 |
| 1987-07-09 | 0.01000 | 0.190476 |
| 1987-04-09 | 0.01000 | 0.174863 |
| 1987-01-09 | 0.01000 | 0.174863 |
| 1986-10-08 | 0.01000 | 0.202532 |
| 1986-07-09 | 0.01000 | 0.253968 |
| 1986-04-09 | 0.01000 | 0.200000 |
| 1986-01-09 | 0.01000 | 0.258065 |
| 1985-10-08 | 0.01000 | 0.188235 |
| 1985-07-09 | 0.01000 | 0.169312 |
| 1985-04-09 | 0.00875 | 0.183007 |
| 1985-01-08 | 0.00875 | 0.227642 |
| 1984-10-10 | 0.00875 | 0.277228 |
| 1984-07-10 | 0.00875 | 0.318182 |
| 1984-04-10 | 0.00875 | 0.282828 |
| 1984-01-10 | 0.00875 | 0.239316 |
| 1983-10-18 | 0.00750 | 0.203390 |
| 1983-06-09 | 0.00750 | 0.165517 |
| 1983-03-21 | 0.00750 | 0.220183 |
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| 52 Week Change | -0.32385367 |
| Address1 | 19,300 International Boulevard |
| All Time High | 101.43 |
| All Time Low | 0.765306 |
| Ask | 42.93 |
| Ask Size | 500 |
| Audit Risk | 1 |
| Average Analyst Rating | 1.5 - Strong Buy |
| Average Daily Volume10 Day | 2,490,150 |
| Average Daily Volume3 Month | 3,008,528 |
| Average Volume | 3,008,528 |
| Average Volume10Days | 2,490,150 |
| Beta | 1.3 |
| Bid | 42.54 |
| Bid Size | 100 |
| Board Risk | 1 |
| Book Value | 32.895 |
| City | Seattle |
| Compensation As Of Epoch Date | 1,767,139,200 |
| Compensation Risk | 1 |
| Country | United States |
| Crypto Tradeable | 0 |
| Currency | USD |
| Current Price | 42.32 |
| Current Ratio | 0.547 |
| Custom Price Alert Confidence | HIGH |
| Date Short Interest | 1,786,665,600 |
| Day High | 43.31 |
| Day Low | 42.17 |
| Debt To Equity | 207.52 |
| Display Name | Alaska Air |
| Dividend Date | 1,441,065,600 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp End | 1,784,734,200 |
| Earnings Call Timestamp Start | 1,784,734,200 |
| Earnings Timestamp | 1,784,664,000 |
| Earnings Timestamp End | 1,792,699,200 |
| Earnings Timestamp Start | 1,792,699,200 |
| Ebitda | 703,000,000 |
| Ebitda Margins | 0.047620002 |
| Enterprise To Ebitda | 13.765 |
| Enterprise To Revenue | 0.655 |
| Enterprise Value | 9,677,043,712 |
| Eps Current Year | -1.66159 |
| Eps Forward | 5.61621 |
| Eps Trailing Twelve Months | -1.62 |
| Esg Populated | 0 |
| Ex Dividend Date | 1,581,638,400 |
| Exchange | NYQ |
| Exchange Data Delayed By | 0 |
| Exchange Timezone Name | America/New_York |
| Exchange Timezone Short Name | EDT |
| Fifty Day Average | 47.3946 |
| Fifty Day Average Change | -5.0746 |
| Fifty Day Average Change Percent | -0.10707127 |
| Fifty Two Week Change Percent | -32.38537 |
| Fifty Two Week High | 65.88 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change | -23.559998 |
| Fifty Two Week High Change Percent | -0.35761988 |
| Fifty Two Week Low | 33.03 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change | 9.290001 |
| Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent | 0.2812595 |
| Fifty Two Week Range | 33.03 - 65.88 |
| Financial Currency | USD |
| First Trade Date Milliseconds | 322,151,400,000 |
| Five Year Avg Dividend Yield | 1.95 |
| Float Shares | 110,852,031 |
| Forward Eps | 5.61621 |
| Forward P E | 7.535331 |
| Free Cashflow | -23,750,000 |
| Full Exchange Name | NYSE |
| Full Time Employees | 31,596 |
| Fullday Change | 0.119999 |
| Fullday Change Percent | 0.284358 |
| Fullday Price | 42.63 |
| Gmt Off Set Milliseconds | -14,400,000 |
| Governance Epoch Date | 1,785,542,400 |
| Gross Margins | 0.17713 |
| Gross Profits | 2,615,000,064 |
| Has Pre Post Market Data | 1 |
| Held Percent Insiders | 0.00598 |
| Held Percent Institutions | 0.94451 |
| Implied Shares Outstanding | 111,566,970 |
| Industry | Airlines |
| Industry Disp | Airlines |
| Industry Key | airlines |
| Ir Website | http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=109361&p=irol-IRHome |
| Is Earnings Date Estimate | 1 |
| Language | en-US |
| Last Dividend Date | 1,581,638,400 |
| Last Dividend Value | 0.375 |
| Last Fiscal Year End | 1,767,139,200 |
| Last Split Date | 1,404,950,400 |
| Last Split Factor | 2:1 |
| Long Business Summary | Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates airlines. It operates through three segments: Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional. The company offers scheduled air transportation services on Boeing jet aircraft for passengers and cargo; and Horizon's and other third-party carriers scheduled air transportation services. It operates in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Belize, the Bahamas, the South Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, and Asia. Alaska Air Group, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is based in Seattle, Washington. |
| Long Name | Alaska Air Group, Inc. |
| Market | us_market |
| Market Cap | 4,721,513,984 |
| Market State | CLOSED |
| Max Age | 86,400 |
| Message Board Id | finmb_248501 |
| Most Recent Quarter | 1,782,777,600 |
| Net Income To Common | -175,000,000 |
| Next Fiscal Year End | 1,798,675,200 |
| Non Diluted Market Cap | 4,709,651,664 |
| Number Of Analyst Opinions | 16 |
| Open | 42.72 |
| Operating Cashflow | 1,020,000,000 |
| Operating Margins | -0.02927 |
| Overall Risk | 1 |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0 |
| Peg Ratio | 1.2 |
| Phone | 206 392 5040 |
| Post Market Change | 0.31000137 |
| Post Market Change Percent | 0.7325174 |
| Post Market Price | 42.63 |
| Post Market Time | 1,787,960,787 |
| Previous Close | 42.2 |
| Price Eps Current Year | -25.46958 |
| Price Hint | 2 |
| Price To Book | 1.2865177 |
| Price To Sales Trailing12 Months | 0.31982076 |
| Profit Margins | -0.011849999 |
| Quick Ratio | 0.465 |
| Quote Source Name | Nasdaq Real Time Price |
| Quote Type | EQUITY |
| Recommendation Key | strong_buy |
| Recommendation Mean | 1.5 |
| Region | US |
| Regular Market Change | 0.119999 |
| Regular Market Change Percent | 0.284358 |
| Regular Market Day High | 43.31 |
| Regular Market Day Low | 42.17 |
| Regular Market Day Range | 42.17 - 43.31 |
| Regular Market Open | 42.72 |
| Regular Market Previous Close | 42.2 |
| Regular Market Price | 42.32 |
| Regular Market Time | 1,787,947,203 |
| Regular Market Volume | 2,123,443 |
| Return On Assets | -0.00093999994 |
| Return On Equity | -0.04598 |
| Revenue Growth | 0.097 |
| Revenue Per Share | 129.463 |
| Sand P52 Week Change | 0.20204377 |
| Sector | Industrials |
| Sector Disp | Industrials |
| Sector Key | industrials |
| Share Holder Rights Risk | 1 |
| Shares Outstanding | 111,566,970 |
| Shares Percent Shares Out | 0.096999995 |
| Shares Short | 10,826,720 |
| Shares Short Previous Month Date | 1,784,073,600 |
| Shares Short Prior Month | 10,966,796 |
| Short Name | Alaska Air Group, Inc. |
| Short Percent Of Float | 0.109 |
| Short Ratio | 3.83 |
| Source Interval | 15 |
| State | WA |
| Symbol | ALK |
| Target High Price | 92.0 |
| Target Low Price | 37.0 |
| Target Mean Price | 61.28125 |
| Target Median Price | 61.25 |
| Total Cash | 2,662,000,128 |
| Total Cash Per Share | 23.852 |
| Total Debt | 7,616,000,000 |
| Total Revenue | 14,762,999,808 |
| Tradeable | 0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Rate | 0.0 |
| Trailing Annual Dividend Yield | 0.0 |
| Trailing Eps | -1.62 |
| Trailing Peg Ratio | None |
| Triggerable | 1 |
| Two Hundred Day Average | 45.89185 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change | -3.5718498 |
| Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent | -0.0778319 |
| Type Disp | Equity |
| Volume | 2,123,443 |
| Website | https://www.alaskaair.com |
| Zip | 98,188 |