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Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO)

Consumer Defensive | Farm Products | Luxembourg City, Luxembourg | NYSE
10.74 USD +0.05 (0.468%) ⇧ (Aug. 28, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 10.76 +0.02 (0.186%) ⇧ (Aug. 28, 2026, 7:30 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★★⯪☆Long-term:★★⯪☆☆Dividends:★★⯪☆☆
Hot Take | Aug. 22, 2026, 3:04 a.m. EDT

The immediate outlook is driven by a sharp technical recovery and aggressive speculative positioning. After a brutal multi-year decline where the stock lost over 10% of its value despite some interim gains, the price has recently rallied nearly 20% from its lows, breaking above key moving averages. This momentum is attracting heavy options flow, with traders stacking call contracts at the 12.50 strike, betting on a continuation of this bounce. However, the long-term picture remains murky due to a deteriorating business trajectory; the company has posted two consecutive years of negative growth, and the market has punished this with a significant discount. While the forward P/E looks attractive relative to historical norms, the lack of sustained revenue expansion and the heavy debt load suggest this is a cyclical recovery play rather than a fundamental turnaround. The dividend yield is modest and not enough to offset the capital destruction seen over the last decade. Investors should view this as a high-risk momentum trade riding a commodity cycle rebound, rather than a stable compounder.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL ✓0.133324
AutoARIMA0.135476
AutoETS0.135476
AutoTheta0.135484

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL

Forecast Reliability
Score 48%
H-stat 1.14
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.103
Excess Kurtosis 0.02
Attribute Value
Sector Consumer Defensive
Ex Dividend Date 2026-05-03
Last Dividend Date 2026-05-03
Debt to Equity Ratio 124.279
Revenue per Share 13.529
Market Cap 1,549,867,520
Trailing P/E 28.26
Forward P/E 8.61
Beta -0.06
Profit Margins 3.00%
Website https://www.adecoagro.com

As of Aug. 22, 2026, 3:04 a.m. EDT: Speculators are heavily positioning for upside moves, evidenced by massive open interest in out-of-the-money calls (10.7k at Sept expiry, 10.1k at Dec expiry) compared to negligible put volume. The strike distribution shows significant concentration at the 12.5 level, suggesting a collective bet on a rebound toward the 12.50–15.00 range. Conversely, put buyers are focused on deep strikes (7.50), indicating a fear of a crash to lower valuations rather than a moderate decline, though the sheer volume of call buying suggests the bullish thesis currently dominates sentiment.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.80% 0.80% 2.47%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-05-04 0.121 0.797101
2025-05-02 0.175 1.984127
2024-11-12 0.174 1.537103
2024-05-13 0.168 1.516245
2023-11-08 0.165 1.580460
2023-05-08 0.163 1.897555
2022-11-01 0.160 1.862631
2022-04-29 0.157 1.395556
Additional Data
dividendRate 0.3
dividendYield 2.77
exDividendDate 2026-05-04
trailingAnnualDividendRate 0.0
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.0
lastDividendValue 0.121
lastDividendDate 2026-05-04
dividendDate 2026-05-19

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.26359344
Address1 28, Boulevard F.W. Raiffeisen
All Time High 15.89
All Time Low 3.31
Ask 11.49
Ask Size 100
Audit Risk 9
Average Analyst Rating 2.9 - Hold
Average Daily Volume10 Day 1,092,590
Average Daily Volume3 Month 858,401
Average Volume 858,401
Average Volume10Days 1,092,590
Beta -0.058
Bid 10.76
Bid Size 200
Board Risk 10
Book Value 12.06
City Luxembourg City
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,356,912,000
Compensation Risk 5
Country Luxembourg
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 10.74
Current Ratio 1.729
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,786,665,600
Day High 10.91
Day Low 10.64
Debt To Equity 124.279
Display Name Adecoagro
Dividend Date 1,779,148,800
Dividend Rate 0.3
Dividend Yield 2.77
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,786,543,200
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,786,543,200
Earnings Timestamp 1,794,427,200
Earnings Timestamp End 1,794,427,200
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,794,427,200
Ebitda 420,300,000
Ebitda Margins 0.25475
Enterprise To Ebitda 8.768
Enterprise To Revenue 2.234
Enterprise Value 3,684,987,136
Eps Current Year 1.765
Eps Forward 1.24768
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 0.38
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,777,852,800
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 9.944
Fifty Day Average Change 0.7959995
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.08004822
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 26.359344
Fifty Two Week High 15.89
Fifty Two Week High Change -5.1500006
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.32410324
Fifty Two Week Low 6.89
Fifty Two Week Low Change 3.85
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.55878085
Fifty Two Week Range 6.89 - 15.89
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,296,225,000,000
Float Shares 32,838,721
Forward Eps 1.24768
Forward P E 8.607977
Free Cashflow -128,340,872
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Fullday Change 0.0500002
Fullday Change Percent 0.467729
Fullday Price 10.76
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,785,542,400
Gross Margins 0.2591
Gross Profits 427,476,000
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.73371005
Held Percent Institutions 0.115159996
Implied Shares Outstanding 144,307,966
Industry Farm Products
Industry Disp Farm Products
Industry Key farm-products
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,777,852,800
Last Dividend Value 0.121
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Adecoagro S.A., engages in agricultural and agro-industrial activities in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. The company operates through three segments: Sugar, Ethanol and Energy, Fertilizers and Farming. The company is involved in the production of a range of agricultural commodities, including soybean, corn, wheat, peanut, sunflower, cotton, and others; planting, harvesting, processing, and marketing of white, brown, and rough rice; genetic development of seeds; and production of dairy products, such as raw milk, ultra-high temperature milk, powdered milk, semi-hard cheese, cream, cream and cocoa flavored milk, chocolate and fluid milk, and other dairy products. It also generates electricity through burning biogas extracted from effluents produced by its dairy cattle; and provides grain warehousing and conditioning, and handling and drying services. In addition, the company cultivates andharvests sugarcane to produce ethanol, sugar, and bioelectricity; and sells carbon credits. Further, it engages in land transformation activities, such as the acquisition of farmlands or businesses with underdeveloped or underutilized agricultural land; and the implementation of production technology and agricultural practices. The company was founded in 2002 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. As of May 1, 2025, Adecoagro S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Tether Investments, S.A. De C.V.
Long Name Adecoagro S.A.
Market us_market
Market Cap 1,549,867,520
Market State CLOSED
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_118300828
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common 49,481,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 1,542,652,156
Number Of Analyst Opinions 7
Open 10.67
Operating Cashflow 319,852,992
Operating Margins 0.16995001
Overall Risk 10
Payout Ratio 0.77940005
Peg Ratio 75.97
Phone 352 2644 9494
Post Market Change 0.020000458
Post Market Change Percent 0.186224
Post Market Price 10.76
Post Market Time 1,787,959,806
Previous Close 10.69
Price Eps Current Year 6.0849857
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.8905472
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 0.9394053
Profit Margins 0.02999
Quick Ratio 0.778
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key hold
Recommendation Mean 2.85714
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.0500002
Regular Market Change Percent 0.467729
Regular Market Day High 10.91
Regular Market Day Low 10.64
Regular Market Day Range 10.64 - 10.91
Regular Market Open 10.67
Regular Market Previous Close 10.69
Regular Market Price 10.74
Regular Market Time 1,787,947,202
Regular Market Volume 569,507
Return On Assets 0.02469
Return On Equity 0.03686
Revenue Growth 0.39
Revenue Per Share 13.529
Sand P52 Week Change 0.1966995
Sector Consumer Defensive
Sector Disp Consumer Defensive
Sector Key consumer-defensive
Share Holder Rights Risk 2
Shares Outstanding 144,307,966
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0087
Shares Short 1,256,984
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,784,073,600
Shares Short Prior Month 1,192,989
Short Name Adecoagro S.A.
Short Percent Of Float 0.0383
Short Ratio 1.75
Source Interval 15
Symbol AGRO
Target High Price 16.0
Target Low Price 10.5
Target Mean Price 13.42143
Target Median Price 13.0
Total Cash 330,507,008
Total Cash Per Share 2.29
Total Debt 2,334,685,952
Total Revenue 1,649,838,976
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.0
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.0
Trailing Eps 0.38
Trailing P E 28.263157
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 10.39695
Two Hundred Day Average Change 0.34305
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.032995254
Type Disp Equity
Volume 569,507
Website https://www.adecoagro.com
Zip 2,411