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Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)

Financial Services | Insurance - Specialty | Hamilton, Bermuda | NYSE
83.73 USD +1.63 (1.985%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 83.73
Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★★☆☆Dividends:★★★☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | July 11, 2026, 4:03 a.m. EDT

The investment case for Assured Guaranty hinges on a classic 'value trap' vs. 'deep value' dichotomy. Fundamentally, the business is resilient: it boasts a fortress-like payout ratio of just 16%, massive gross margins above 93%, and a multi-year price trajectory that is up 221% over the last nine years with no recent consecutive declines. The low P/E of 9.4x and trading below book value suggest the market has priced in severe operational risks that may be overstated. However, the short-term outlook is clouded by deteriorating earnings (-50% quarterly growth) and a recent exodus from major indices like the Russell 1000, which often triggers algorithmic selling. The options market confirms this anxiety, with traders aggressively buying deep out-of-the-money puts, betting on a sharp drop. While the statistical forecast model leans slightly negative for the next 45 days, it is likely reacting to the recent earnings miss and index delisting rather than a fundamental collapse. For the long term, the company remains a solid buy due to its superior capital efficiency and profitability, but the immediate path is fraught with volatility. The disconnect between the healthy fundamentals and the distressed sentiment creates a compelling setup for patient investors, but the aggressive put buying warns that the market is not ready to ignore the earnings slide yet.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoTheta ✓0.062775
AutoETS0.074281
AutoARIMA0.075354
MSTL0.077639

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta

Forecast Reliability
Score 62%
H-stat 0.71
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.285
Excess Kurtosis -0.79
Attribute Value
Sector Financial Services
Ex Dividend Date 2026-05-14
Last Dividend Date 2026-05-14
Debt to Equity Ratio 30.643
Revenue per Share 17.384
Market Cap 3,707,770,880
Trailing P/E 9.59
Forward P/E 11.63
Beta 0.74
Profit Margins 50.98%
Website https://assuredguaranty.com

As of July 11, 2026, 4:03 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning defensively with heavy out-of-the-money put volume and open interest, particularly in the October 2026 expiration where OTM puts dominate. This suggests a fear of a significant downside gap or continued weakness. Conversely, call activity is concentrated near the money and slightly out-of-the-money, indicating a belief that the stock will recover to its recent highs rather than crash, though the aggressive put buying creates a 'bearish bias' in the options chain despite the underlying price being near its 50-day average.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.51% 0.95% 1.37% 1.55%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-05-15 0.380 0.507479
2026-03-06 0.380 0.445434
2025-05-16 0.340 0.394203
2025-03-05 0.340 0.392066
2024-11-22 0.310 0.333011
2024-08-21 0.310 0.401971
2024-05-14 0.310 0.399691
2024-03-05 0.310 0.341297
2023-11-14 0.280 0.421496
2023-08-15 0.280 0.474255
2023-05-16 0.280 0.537738
2023-03-07 0.280 0.489682
2022-11-15 0.250 0.419815
2022-08-16 0.250 0.452981
2022-05-17 0.250 0.434707
2022-03-08 0.250 0.435920
2021-11-16 0.220 0.405829
2021-08-17 0.220 0.444534
2021-05-18 0.220 0.472306
2021-03-09 0.220 0.505863
2020-11-17 0.200 0.634115
2020-08-18 0.200 0.867679
2020-05-19 0.200 0.784621
2020-03-10 0.200 0.521376
2019-11-19 0.180 0.368928
2019-08-20 0.180 0.405405
2019-05-21 0.180 0.429799
2019-03-12 0.180 0.405954
2018-11-20 0.160 0.405166
2018-08-14 0.160 0.388350
2018-05-15 0.160 0.450197
2018-03-06 0.160 0.458190
2017-11-14 0.143 0.388587
2017-08-14 0.143 0.324852
2017-05-15 0.143 0.365822
2017-03-06 0.143 0.351697
2016-11-14 0.130 0.373671
2016-08-15 0.130 0.474453
2016-05-16 0.130 0.518962
2016-03-07 0.130 0.503876
2015-11-16 0.120 0.448096
2015-08-17 0.120 0.450450
2015-05-18 0.120 0.415512
2015-02-13 0.120 0.454373
2014-11-17 0.110 0.442656
2014-08-18 0.110 0.461991
2014-05-19 0.110 0.443191
2014-02-14 0.110 0.470689
2013-11-19 0.100 0.426621
2013-08-19 0.100 0.487092
2013-05-20 0.100 0.414766
2013-02-19 0.100 0.505817
2012-11-19 0.090 0.701481
2012-08-13 0.090 0.697134
2012-05-21 0.090 0.729927
2012-02-21 0.090 0.503356
2011-11-14 0.045 0.397527
2011-08-15 0.045 0.375000
2011-05-16 0.045 0.266430
2011-02-18 0.045 0.275229
2010-11-16 0.045 0.260266
2010-08-17 0.045 0.252809
2010-05-18 0.045 0.291829
2010-03-09 0.045 0.214490
2009-11-18 0.045 0.173678
2009-08-19 0.045 0.252809
2009-05-20 0.045 0.330154
2009-02-18 0.045 0.688073
2008-11-19 0.045 0.643777
2008-08-20 0.045 0.319602
2008-05-21 0.045 0.198151
2008-02-27 0.045 0.190194
2007-11-20 0.040 0.200000
2007-08-21 0.040 0.149198
2007-05-15 0.040 0.131492
2007-02-20 0.040 0.143523
2006-11-14 0.035 0.139832
2006-08-15 0.035 0.140562
2006-05-17 0.035 0.140845
2006-02-14 0.035 0.132626
2005-11-15 0.030 0.116959
2005-08-12 0.030 0.134228
2005-05-13 0.030 0.153689
2005-02-17 0.030 0.156006
2004-11-12 0.030 0.168824
2004-08-13 0.030 0.193548
Additional Data
dividendRate 1.52
dividendYield 1.85
exDividendDate 2026-05-15
trailingAnnualDividendRate 1.4
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.017052375
lastDividendValue 0.38
lastDividendDate 2026-05-15
dividendDate 2026-05-29

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.02378124
Address1 30 Woodbourne Avenue
All Time High 96.6
All Time Low 2.69
Ask 0.0
Ask Size 100
Audit Risk 1
Average Daily Volume10 Day 357,320
Average Daily Volume3 Month 419,521
Average Volume 419,521
Average Volume10Days 357,320
Beta 0.744
Bid 0.0
Bid Size 200
Board Risk 1
Book Value 124.346
City Hamilton
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 2
Country Bermuda
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 83.73
Current Ratio 0.985
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 83.89
Day Low 82.25
Debt To Equity 30.643
Display Name Assured Guaranty
Dividend Date 1,780,012,800
Dividend Rate 1.52
Dividend Yield 1.85
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,778,241,600
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,778,241,600
Earnings Growth -0.445
Earnings Quarterly Growth -0.5
Earnings Timestamp 1,778,184,000
Earnings Timestamp End 1,786,046,400
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,786,046,400
Ebitda Margins 0.0
Enterprise To Revenue 5.187
Enterprise Value 4,221,818,880
Eps Current Year 7.26239
Eps Forward 7.20232
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 8.73
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,778,803,200
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fax 441 279 5701
Fifty Day Average 78.0618
Fifty Day Average Change 5.6682053
Fifty Day Average Change Percent 0.07261177
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -2.378124
Fifty Two Week High 92.4
Fifty Two Week High Change -8.669998
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.093831144
Fifty Two Week Low 72.76
Fifty Two Week Low Change 10.970001
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.15076967
Fifty Two Week Range 72.76 - 92.4
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,082,727,000,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 1.62
Float Shares 41,606,258
Forward Eps 7.20232
Forward P E 11.625421
Free Cashflow 184,750,000
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 367
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,782,864,000
Gross Margins 0.93242997
Gross Profits 759,000,000
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.068569995
Held Percent Institutions 0.95916003
Implied Shares Outstanding 44,282,464
Industry Insurance - Specialty
Industry Disp Insurance - Specialty
Industry Key insurance-specialty
Is Earnings Date Estimate 1
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,778,803,200
Last Dividend Value 0.38
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through Insurance and Asset Management segments. The company offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. It also provides specialty insurance and reinsurance on transactions with risk profiles similar to those of its structured finance exposures written in financial guaranty form, as well as offers credit protection through reinsurance. In addition, the company insures and reinsures various the U.S. public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed bonds, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, renewable energy, and other public finance bonds. Further, it involved in insuring and reinsuring of non-U.S. public finance obligations comprising regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy bonds, and pooled infrastructure obligations; and the U.S. and non-U.S. structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, pooled corporate obligations, and financial products. Additionally, the company offers specialty business, such as diversified real estate, insurance reserve financing and securitizations, pooled corporate obligations, and aircraft residual value insurance (RVI) transactions; and asset management services comprising investment advisory services. It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors. Assured Guaranty Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.
Long Name Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Market us_market
Market Cap 3,707,770,880
Market State PREPRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_8251227
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common 411,000,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 3,635,590,294
Number Of Analyst Opinions 3
Open 82.44
Operating Cashflow 362,000,000
Operating Margins 0.24354
Overall Risk 1
Payout Ratio 0.1604
Peg Ratio 0.33
Phone 441 279 5700
Post Market Change 0.0
Post Market Change Percent 0.0
Post Market Price 83.73
Post Market Time 1,783,981,118
Previous Close 82.1
Price Eps Current Year 11.529263
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.67336303
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 4.5550013
Profit Margins 0.50983
Quick Ratio 0.879
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key none
Region US
Regular Market Change 1.63
Regular Market Change Percent 1.98539
Regular Market Day High 83.89
Regular Market Day Low 82.25
Regular Market Day Range 82.25 - 83.89
Regular Market Open 82.44
Regular Market Previous Close 82.1
Regular Market Price 83.73
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,803
Regular Market Volume 221,646
Return On Assets 0.01501
Return On Equity 0.07896
Revenue Growth -0.062
Revenue Per Share 17.384
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20847368
Sector Financial Services
Sector Disp Financial Services
Sector Key financial-services
Share Holder Rights Risk 2
Shares Outstanding 44,282,464
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.039
Shares Short 1,726,527
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 1,867,556
Short Name Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Short Percent Of Float 0.0581
Short Ratio 4.2
Source Interval 15
Symbol AGO
Target High Price 103.0
Target Low Price 80.0
Target Mean Price 92.33333
Target Median Price 94.0
Total Cash 1,211,000,064
Total Cash Per Share 27.362
Total Debt 1,704,999,936
Total Revenue 814,000,000
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 1.4
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.017052375
Trailing Eps 8.73
Trailing P E 9.591066
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 83.537
Two Hundred Day Average Change 0.1930008
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.0023103629
Type Disp Equity
Volume 221,646
Website https://assuredguaranty.com
Zip HM 08