| Indicators | Browse All

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)

Financial Services | Insurance - Specialty | Hamilton, Bermuda | NYSE
70.31 USD +0.45 (0.644%) ⇧ (Oct. 16, 2026, 10:58 a.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★☆☆☆Long-term:★★★⯪☆Dividends:★★★☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 10:22 a.m. EDT

The most compelling signal here is the disconnect between the company's deteriorating operational momentum and its attractive valuation. While the business is currently struggling with a sharp drop in earnings growth (-62%) and a trailing twelve-month revenue decline, the stock trades at a deep discount to book value (0.55x) and offers a low P/E (9.3x). This suggests the market has already priced in the worst-case scenario for the turnaround. The long-term rating is solid (3.5 stars) because the fundamentals are not broken; the company retains a fortress-like balance sheet relative to its size, strong operating margins (42%), and a consistent history of profitability over the last decade. However, the multi-year price trajectory shows a recent dip, which acts as a headwind for a top-tier 'buy' rating until the earnings recovery is confirmed. The short-term outlook is cautious (2.0 stars). Despite the bullish options flow, the immediate technical picture is weak, with the stock trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The recent price action shows a lack of upward momentum, hovering near the 52-week low. The statistical forecast model also offers no directional edge, reinforcing the view that the stock is in a consolidation phase rather than a breakout. The dividend is a moderate feature (3.0 stars), offering a 2.2% yield with a very sustainable payout ratio of roughly 19%. It is not a high-yield trap, but it is not a primary driver for income investors either. The consensus among analysts is a 'Strong Buy' with a target price significantly higher than the current level, implying substantial room for re-rating if the earnings decline stabilizes.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL ✓0.050877
AutoETS0.056974
AutoARIMA0.056975
AutoTheta0.065349

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL

Forecast Reliability
Score 48%
H-stat 48.94
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.144
Excess Kurtosis -1.39
Attribute Value
Sector Financial Services
Ex Dividend Date 2026-08-19
Last Dividend Date 2026-08-19
Debt to Equity Ratio 30.563
Revenue per Share 17.809
Market Cap 3,092,177,920
Trailing P/E 9.36
Forward P/E 9.99
Beta 0.72
Profit Margins 43.17%
Website https://assuredguaranty.com

As of Oct. 10, 2026, 10:22 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for a significant upside move, evidenced by heavy open interest in out-of-the-money calls at strikes 80 and 85 across multiple expirations. Conversely, put activity is concentrated at lower strikes (60-65), suggesting a floor rather than a bearish bet. The skew towards call volume indicates a speculative expectation of a rally toward the analyst mean target.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.51% 1.46% 1.38% 1.56%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-08-20 0.380 0.511578
2026-05-15 0.380 0.507479
2026-03-06 0.380 0.445434
2025-05-16 0.340 0.394203
2025-03-05 0.340 0.392066
2024-11-22 0.310 0.333011
2024-08-21 0.310 0.401971
2024-05-14 0.310 0.399691
2024-03-05 0.310 0.341297
2023-11-14 0.280 0.421496
2023-08-15 0.280 0.474255
2023-05-16 0.280 0.537738
2023-03-07 0.280 0.489682
2022-11-15 0.250 0.419815
2022-08-16 0.250 0.452981
2022-05-17 0.250 0.434707
2022-03-08 0.250 0.435920
2021-11-16 0.220 0.405829
2021-08-17 0.220 0.444534
2021-05-18 0.220 0.472306
2021-03-09 0.220 0.505863
2020-11-17 0.200 0.634115
2020-08-18 0.200 0.867679
2020-05-19 0.200 0.784621
2020-03-10 0.200 0.521376
2019-11-19 0.180 0.368928
2019-08-20 0.180 0.405405
2019-05-21 0.180 0.429799
2019-03-12 0.180 0.405954
2018-11-20 0.160 0.405166
2018-08-14 0.160 0.388350
2018-05-15 0.160 0.450197
2018-03-06 0.160 0.458190
2017-11-14 0.143 0.388587
2017-08-14 0.143 0.324852
2017-05-15 0.143 0.365822
2017-03-06 0.143 0.351697
2016-11-14 0.130 0.373671
2016-08-15 0.130 0.474453
2016-05-16 0.130 0.518962
2016-03-07 0.130 0.503876
2015-11-16 0.120 0.448096
2015-08-17 0.120 0.450450
2015-05-18 0.120 0.415512
2015-02-13 0.120 0.454373
2014-11-17 0.110 0.442656
2014-08-18 0.110 0.461991
2014-05-19 0.110 0.443191
2014-02-14 0.110 0.470689
2013-11-19 0.100 0.426621
2013-08-19 0.100 0.487092
2013-05-20 0.100 0.414766
2013-02-19 0.100 0.505817
2012-11-19 0.090 0.701481
2012-08-13 0.090 0.697134
2012-05-21 0.090 0.729927
2012-02-21 0.090 0.503356
2011-11-14 0.045 0.397527
2011-08-15 0.045 0.375000
2011-05-16 0.045 0.266430
2011-02-18 0.045 0.275229
2010-11-16 0.045 0.260266
2010-08-17 0.045 0.252809
2010-05-18 0.045 0.291829
2010-03-09 0.045 0.214490
2009-11-18 0.045 0.173678
2009-08-19 0.045 0.252809
2009-05-20 0.045 0.330154
2009-02-18 0.045 0.688073
2008-11-19 0.045 0.643777
2008-08-20 0.045 0.319602
2008-05-21 0.045 0.198151
2008-02-27 0.045 0.190194
2007-11-20 0.040 0.200000
2007-08-21 0.040 0.149198
2007-05-15 0.040 0.131492
2007-02-20 0.040 0.143523
2006-11-14 0.035 0.139832
2006-08-15 0.035 0.140562
2006-05-17 0.035 0.140845
2006-02-14 0.035 0.132626
2005-11-15 0.030 0.116959
2005-08-12 0.030 0.134228
2005-05-13 0.030 0.153689
2005-02-17 0.030 0.156006
2004-11-12 0.030 0.168824
2004-08-13 0.030 0.193548
Additional Data
dividendRate 1.52
dividendYield 2.18
exDividendDate 2026-08-20
trailingAnnualDividendRate 1.44
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.020612655
lastDividendValue 0.38
lastDividendDate 2026-08-20
dividendDate 2026-09-03

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.12664086
Address1 30 Woodbourne Avenue
All Time High 96.6
All Time Low 2.69
Ask 70.31
Ask Size 200
Audit Risk 1
Average Daily Volume10 Day 377,370
Average Daily Volume3 Month 421,503
Average Volume 421,503
Average Volume10Days 377,370
Beta 0.721
Bid 70.18
Bid Size 100
Board Risk 1
Book Value 126.249
City Hamilton
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 2
Country Bermuda
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 70.31
Current Ratio 0.99
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,790,726,400
Day High 70.49
Day Low 69.985
Debt To Equity 30.563
Display Name Assured Guaranty
Dividend Date 1,788,393,600
Dividend Rate 1.52
Dividend Yield 2.18
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,786,104,000
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,786,104,000
Earnings Growth -0.577
Earnings Quarterly Growth -0.621
Earnings Timestamp 1,786,046,400
Earnings Timestamp End 1,793,908,800
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,793,908,800
Ebitda Margins 0.0
Enterprise To Revenue 4.375
Enterprise Value 3,556,758,784
Eps Current Year 7.01658
Eps Forward 7.0398
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 7.51
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,787,184,000
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 20
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fax 441 279 5701
Fifty Day Average 72.6258
Fifty Day Average Change -2.3158035
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.031886786
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -12.664085
Fifty Two Week High 92.4
Fifty Two Week High Change -22.090004
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.2390693
Fifty Two Week Low 67.24
Fifty Two Week Low Change 3.0699997
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.045657344
Fifty Two Week Range 67.24 - 92.4
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,082,727,000,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 1.61
Float Shares 41,327,773
Forward Eps 7.0398
Forward P E 9.987499
Free Cashflow 14,625,000
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 367
Fullday Change 0.44999695
Fullday Change Percent 0.6441411
Fullday Price 70.31
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,790,812,800
Gross Margins 0.94342005
Gross Profits 767,000,000
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.06865
Held Percent Institutions 0.96601
Implied Shares Outstanding 43,979,208
Industry Insurance - Specialty
Industry Disp Insurance - Specialty
Industry Key insurance-specialty
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,787,184,000
Last Dividend Value 0.38
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through Insurance and Asset Management segments. The company offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. It also provides specialty insurance and reinsurance on transactions with risk profiles similar to those of its structured finance exposures written in financial guaranty form, as well as offers credit protection through reinsurance. In addition, the company insures and reinsures various the U.S. public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed bonds, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, renewable energy, and other public finance bonds. Further, it involved in insuring and reinsuring of non-U.S. public finance obligations comprising regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy bonds, and pooled infrastructure obligations; and the U.S. and non-U.S. structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, pooled corporate obligations, and financial products. Additionally, the company offers specialty business, such as diversified real estate, insurance reserve financing and securitizations, pooled corporate obligations, and aircraft residual value insurance (RVI) transactions; and asset management services comprising investment advisory services. It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors. Assured Guaranty Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.
Long Name Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Market us_market
Market Cap 3,092,177,920
Market State REGULAR
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_8251227
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common 348,000,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 3,034,125,559
Number Of Analyst Opinions 3
Open 69.84
Operating Cashflow 324,000,000
Operating Margins 0.4264
Overall Risk 1
Payout Ratio 0.1917
Peg Ratio 0.33
Phone 441 279 5700
Previous Close 69.86
Price Eps Current Year 10.020551
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 0.5569153
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 3.803417
Profit Margins 0.43173
Quick Ratio 0.884
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key none
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.44999695
Regular Market Change Percent 0.6441411
Regular Market Day High 70.49
Regular Market Day Low 69.985
Regular Market Day Range 69.985 - 70.49
Regular Market Open 69.84
Regular Market Previous Close 69.86
Regular Market Price 70.31
Regular Market Time 1,792,162,711
Regular Market Volume 27,395
Return On Assets 0.01582
Return On Equity 0.06666
Revenue Growth -0.005
Revenue Per Share 17.809
Sand P52 Week Change 0.16207206
Sector Financial Services
Sector Disp Financial Services
Sector Key financial-services
Share Holder Rights Risk 2
Shares Outstanding 43,979,208
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.054
Shares Short 2,374,803
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,788,134,400
Shares Short Prior Month 2,260,343
Short Name Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Short Percent Of Float 0.080699995
Short Ratio 4.51
Source Interval 15
Symbol AGO
Target High Price 97.0
Target Low Price 85.0
Target Mean Price 91.0
Target Median Price 91.0
Total Cash 1,243,000,064
Total Cash Per Share 28.278
Total Debt 1,706,000,000
Total Revenue 813,000,000
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 1.44
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.020612655
Trailing Eps 7.51
Trailing P E 9.362184
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 80.03925
Two Hundred Day Average Change -9.729256
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.12155605
Type Disp Equity
Volume 27,395
Website https://assuredguaranty.com
Zip HM 08