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Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM)

Financial Services | Credit Services | Washington, United States | NYSE
206.22 USD +2.40 (1.178%) ⇧ (Oct. 15, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★★⯪☆Dividends:★★★⯪☆
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 10:08 a.m. EDT

The core thesis here is a high-yield defensive play on a fundamentally sound but structurally constrained government-sponsored enterprise. The business quality is exceptional: revenue is growing nearly 25%, earnings are up 20%, and the company generates massive operating margins (nearly 70%) with a pristine payout ratio of just 34%. This leaves ample room for dividend growth, currently yielding over 3%. However, the market is pricing in significant distress, evidenced by the massive disconnect between the current price and the analyst consensus target (which implies a 25%+ upside). The options market confirms this tension; traders are aggressively buying deep out-of-the-money puts, betting on a crash, while the stock itself trades near its 52-week lows despite strong fundamentals. For the patient investor, this is a compelling value trap waiting to resolve; the balance sheet is a fortress, and the earnings trajectory is robust, suggesting the current price is a temporary dislocation rather than a permanent failure.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoTheta ✓0.044502
AutoARIMA0.072632
AutoETS0.072896
MSTL0.073999

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta

Forecast Reliability
Score 59%
H-stat 0.48
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.731
Excess Kurtosis -0.55
Attribute Value
Sector Financial Services
Ex Dividend Date 2026-09-14
Last Dividend Date 2026-09-14
Debt to Equity Ratio 1994.179
Revenue per Share 37.574
Market Cap 2,238,148,864
Trailing P/E 11.28
Forward P/E 8.94
Beta 1.07
Profit Margins 56.03%
Website https://www.farmermac.com

As of Oct. 10, 2026, 10:08 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning defensively with heavy open interest walls at strikes significantly above the current price (240-250 range), suggesting a fear of a sharp decline or a desire to cap upside. Conversely, there is notable volume and open interest in deep out-of-the-money puts (strikes like 85 and 90) with inflated implied volatility, indicating a specific bet on a catastrophic drop or a hedge against a severe credit event. The call side shows moderate interest in upside moves but lacks the aggressive volume seen in the put protection, creating a skewed risk profile where downside protection is prioritized over speculative upside.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.71% 3.49% 3.15% 3.19%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-09-15 1.60 0.712758
2026-06-15 1.60 0.872125
2026-03-16 1.60 1.068305
2025-12-15 1.50 0.839725
2025-09-15 1.50 0.784273
2025-06-16 1.50 0.803643
2025-03-14 1.50 0.768403
2024-12-16 1.40 0.666254
2024-09-16 1.40 0.749946
2024-06-14 1.40 0.826154
2024-03-14 1.40 0.757002
2023-12-14 1.10 0.603533
2023-09-14 1.10 0.664291
2023-06-15 1.10 0.735540
2023-03-15 1.10 0.873501
2022-12-14 0.95 0.809820
2022-09-14 0.95 0.913989
2022-06-14 0.95 1.036891
2022-03-15 0.95 0.739300
2021-12-14 0.88 0.747029
2021-09-14 0.88 0.904326
2021-06-14 0.88 0.867337
2021-03-15 0.88 0.886382
2020-12-14 0.80 1.050972
2020-09-15 0.80 1.196888
2020-06-12 0.80 1.221374
2020-03-13 0.80 1.420455
2019-12-13 0.70 0.861220
2019-09-13 0.70 0.804598
2019-06-13 0.70 0.981905
2019-03-14 0.70 0.897091
2018-12-13 0.58 1.013809
2018-09-13 0.58 0.738854
2018-06-14 0.58 0.639682
2018-03-16 0.58 0.658044
2017-12-14 0.36 0.495322
2017-09-14 0.36 0.555813
2017-06-13 0.36 0.545785
2017-03-16 0.36 0.585176
2016-12-14 0.26 0.453041
2016-09-13 0.26 0.681878
2016-06-13 0.26 0.719027
2016-03-17 0.26 0.712719
2015-12-14 0.16 0.534938
2015-09-11 0.16 0.596347
2015-06-15 0.16 0.514635
2015-03-12 0.16 0.497203
2014-12-17 0.14 0.488486
2014-09-12 0.14 0.424114
2014-06-12 0.14 0.454103
2014-03-13 0.14 0.436954
2013-12-18 0.12 0.355556
2013-09-12 0.12 0.373367
2013-06-13 0.12 0.406918
2013-03-13 0.12 0.369117
2012-12-13 0.10 0.316957
2012-09-12 0.10 0.399521
2012-06-14 0.10 0.393391
2012-03-13 0.10 0.450857
2011-12-13 0.05 0.293083
2011-09-13 0.05 0.269251
2011-06-13 0.05 0.262881
2011-03-11 0.05 0.263158
2010-12-13 0.05 0.316656
2010-09-13 0.05 0.446429
2010-06-11 0.05 0.364166
2010-03-11 0.05 0.538213
2009-12-11 0.05 0.798722
2009-09-11 0.05 0.586166
2009-06-11 0.05 0.915751
2009-03-20 0.05 1.779359
2008-12-18 0.10 2.604167
2008-09-11 0.10 0.403877
2008-06-11 0.10 0.370370
2008-03-12 0.10 0.425894
2007-12-12 0.10 0.384615
2007-09-12 0.10 0.330797
2007-06-13 0.10 0.323520
2007-03-13 0.10 0.400000
2006-12-13 0.10 0.363769
2006-09-13 0.10 0.356379
2006-06-13 0.10 0.388199
2006-03-13 0.10 0.354988
2005-12-13 0.10 0.328947
2005-09-13 0.10 0.396354
2005-06-13 0.10 0.506073
2005-03-11 0.10 0.521648
2004-12-13 0.10 0.428449
Additional Data
dividendYield 3.06
exDividendDate 2026-09-15
trailingAnnualDividendRate 6.2
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.030418996
lastDividendValue 1.6
lastDividendDate 2026-09-15
dividendDate 2026-09-30

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.32082236
Address1 2,100 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Address2 Suite 450 N
All Time High 248.29
All Time Low 1.333333
Ask 207.5
Ask Size 100
Audit Risk 2
Average Analyst Rating 1.5 - Strong Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 116,350
Average Daily Volume3 Month 109,406
Average Volume 109,406
Average Volume10Days 116,350
Beta 1.074
Bid 82.49
Bid Size 200
Board Risk 4
Book Value 115.18
City Washington
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 5
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 206.22
Current Ratio 1.498
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,790,726,400
Day High 208.36
Day Low 204.9
Debt To Equity 1,994.179
Display Name Federal Agricultural Mortgage
Dividend Date 1,790,726,400
Dividend Yield 3.06
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,785,443,400
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,785,443,400
Earnings Growth 0.208
Earnings Quarterly Growth 0.221
Earnings Timestamp 1,785,441,600
Earnings Timestamp End 1,793,736,000
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,793,736,000
Ebitda Margins 0.0
Enterprise To Revenue 94.865
Enterprise Value 38,770,122,752
Eps Current Year 20.69667
Eps Forward 23.07333
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 18.28
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,789,430,400
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 20
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fax 800 999 1814
Fifty Day Average 220.3508
Fifty Day Average Change -14.130798
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.064128645
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 32.082237
Fifty Two Week High 248.29
Fifty Two Week High Change -42.069992
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.16943893
Fifty Two Week Low 136.57
Fifty Two Week Low Change 69.649994
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.5099948
Fifty Two Week Range 136.57 - 248.29
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 760,890,600,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 2.95
Float Shares 10,200,281
Forward Eps 23.07333
Forward P E 8.937592
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 212
Fullday Change 0.94000244
Fullday Change Percent 0.45582506
Fullday Price 207.16
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,790,812,800
Gross Margins 1.0
Gross Profits 408,688,000
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.01698
Held Percent Institutions 0.881
Implied Shares Outstanding 10,853,210
Industry Credit Services
Industry Disp Credit Services
Industry Key credit-services
Is Earnings Date Estimate 1
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,789,430,400
Last Dividend Value 1.6
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Last Split Date 933,552,000
Last Split Factor 3:1
Long Business Summary Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation provides a secondary market for various loans made to borrowers in the United States. It operates through seven segments: Farm & Ranch, Corporate AgFinance, Power & Utilities, Broadband Infrastructure, Renewable Energy, Funding, and Investments. The Farm & Ranch segment includes the USDA Securities portfolio, Farm & Ranch loans, and AgVantage securities secured by Farm & Ranch loans. The Corporate AgFinance segment includes loans and AgVantage securities to larger and more complex farming operations, agribusinesses focused on food and fiber processing, and other supply chain production. The Power & Utilities segment includes loans to rural electric generation and transmission cooperatives and distribution cooperatives, as well as AgVantage securities secured by those types of loans. The Broadband Infrastructure segment includes loans to rural fiber, cable/broadband, tower, wireless, local exchange carrier, and data center projects. The Renewable Energy segment includes rural electric, solar, wind, and gas projects. The Funding segment includes debt issuance, hedging, asset/liability management, and capital allocation. The Investments segment includes an investment portfolio, which is held for liquidity purposes. The company is involved in a line of agricultural finance business, including purchasing and retaining eligible loans and securities; guaranteeing the payment of principal and interest on securities that represent interests in, or obligations secured by pools of eligible loans; servicing eligible loans; and issuing long-term standby purchase commitments for designated eligible loans. Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Washington, District Of Columbia.
Long Name Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation
Market us_market
Market Cap 2,238,148,864
Market State PRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_360653
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common 200,047,008
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 2,254,148,904
Number Of Analyst Opinions 3
Open 205.71
Operating Cashflow 310,057,984
Operating Margins 0.6973
Overall Risk 9
Payout Ratio 0.3392
Peg Ratio 0.68
Phone 202 872 7700
Pre Market Change 0.94000244
Pre Market Change Percent 0.45582506
Pre Market Price 207.16
Pre Market Time 1,792,140,863
Previous Close 203.82
Price Eps Current Year 9.963922
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 1.790415
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 5.476424
Profit Margins 0.56033003
Quick Ratio 1.479
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key strong_buy
Recommendation Mean 1.5
Region US
Regular Market Change 2.39999
Regular Market Change Percent 1.17751
Regular Market Day High 208.36
Regular Market Day Low 204.9
Regular Market Day Range 204.9 - 208.36
Regular Market Open 205.71
Regular Market Previous Close 203.82
Regular Market Price 206.22
Regular Market Time 1,792,094,403
Regular Market Volume 100,167
Return On Assets 0.00634
Return On Equity 0.13475999
Revenue Growth 0.249
Revenue Per Share 37.574
Sand P52 Week Change 0.16207206
Sector Financial Services
Sector Disp Financial Services
Sector Key financial-services
Share Holder Rights Risk 10
Shares Outstanding 9,322,129
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0385
Shares Short 417,423
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,788,134,400
Shares Short Prior Month 319,841
Short Name Federal Agricultural Mortgage C
Short Percent Of Float 0.0456
Short Ratio 3.67
Source Interval 15
State DC
Symbol AGM
Target High Price 262.0
Target Low Price 254.0
Target Mean Price 257.0
Target Median Price 255.0
Total Cash 1,053,518,016
Total Cash Per Share 97.07
Total Debt 36,980,736,000
Total Revenue 408,688,000
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 6.2
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.030418996
Trailing Eps 18.28
Trailing P E 11.281181
Trailing Peg Ratio 0.721
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 187.3262
Two Hundred Day Average Change 18.893799
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.10086042
Type Disp Equity
Volume 100,167
Website https://www.farmermac.com
Zip 20,037