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Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR)

Real Estate | REIT - Mortgage | Uniondale, United States | NYSE
5.00 USD +0.09 (1.833%) ⇧ (July 14, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★☆☆☆Long-term:★⯪☆☆☆Dividends:★★☆☆☆
Hot Take | July 11, 2026, 4:56 a.m. EDT

Arbor Realty Trust presents a classic value trap scenario where a distressed balance sheet masks a deteriorating business reality. While the 21.57% dividend yield is mathematically attractive, it is a dangerous signal; the company is paying out 300% of its earnings, relying entirely on capital recycling to maintain the payout. This is unsustainable and risks NAV erosion if earnings continue to contract. Fundamentally, the stock is in a structural decline. After a massive spike in 2021, the asset has lost nearly 28% of its value in the last year alone, following two consecutive years of negative returns. The market has correctly priced in a failing mortgage REIT model with crushing debt loads (Debt-to-Equity of 383%) and negligible returns on equity (4%). The recent news of refinancing and convertible notes confirms management is scrambling to extend maturity dates rather than grow the business. Short-term, the stock is oversold and trading near its 52-week low, which offers a temporary reprieve. However, the options market screams caution, with traders loading up on cheap insurance against further drops. There is no evidence of a turnaround; the statistical forecast shows a weak lean upward, but this is likely just mean reversion noise rather than a genuine recovery signal. Investors chasing the yield here are likely to face a double whammy: dividend cuts and continued capital losses.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoTheta ✓0.396914
MSTL0.410050
AutoETS0.415158
AutoARIMA0.415162

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoTheta

Forecast Reliability
Score 34%
H-stat 1.90
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.000
Excess Kurtosis 6.48
Attribute Value
Sector Real Estate
Ex Dividend Date 2026-05-21
Last Dividend Date 2026-05-21
Debt to Equity Ratio 383.271
Revenue per Share 2.734
Market Cap 1,042,657,152
Trailing P/E 12.20
Forward P/E 8.25
Beta 1.12
Profit Margins 22.43%
Website https://arbor.com

As of July 11, 2026, 4:56 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning heavily for downside protection, evidenced by massive open interest in out-of-the-money puts (strikes 8.0, 10.0, 13.0) and significant volume in deep OTM strikes. Call activity is concentrated near the money or slightly out, with very little speculative buying at strikes implying a major rally. The skew suggests a 'bear put' strategy rather than a bullish momentum play.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
3.05% 12.86% 12.67% 11.58%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-05-22 0.170 3.052065
2026-03-10 0.300 3.811944
2025-11-14 0.300 3.412969
2025-08-15 0.300 2.586207
2025-05-16 0.300 2.838221
2025-03-07 0.430 3.515945
2024-11-15 0.430 2.953297
2024-08-16 0.430 3.213752
2024-05-16 0.430 3.113686
2024-03-01 0.430 3.328173
2023-11-16 0.430 3.513072
2023-08-14 0.430 2.674129
2023-05-18 0.420 3.278688
2023-03-10 0.400 3.041825
2022-11-17 0.400 2.855103
2022-08-12 0.390 2.477764
2022-05-19 0.380 2.354399
2022-03-03 0.370 2.101079
2021-11-12 0.360 1.874024
2021-08-13 0.350 1.899078
2021-05-20 0.340 1.936219
2021-03-02 0.330 1.978417
2020-11-13 0.320 2.525651
2020-08-14 0.310 2.736099
2020-06-29 0.300 3.282276
2020-02-27 0.300 2.369668
2019-11-14 0.300 1.990710
2019-08-14 0.290 2.424749
2019-05-22 0.280 2.173913
2019-02-28 0.270 2.086553
2018-12-27 0.030 0.293542
2018-11-14 0.270 2.216749
2018-08-14 0.250 2.185315
2018-05-14 0.250 2.693966
2018-03-07 0.210 2.470588
2017-11-14 0.190 2.294686
2017-08-14 0.180 2.227723
2017-05-15 0.180 2.244389
2017-03-13 0.170 2.222222
2016-11-17 0.160 2.147651
2016-08-15 0.160 2.182810
2016-05-16 0.150 2.173913
2016-03-08 0.150 2.248876
2015-11-16 0.150 2.245509
2015-08-12 0.150 2.307692
2015-05-13 0.150 2.290076
2015-02-23 0.130 1.846591
2014-11-17 0.130 1.908957
2014-08-13 0.130 1.878613
2014-05-13 0.130 1.823282
2014-02-21 0.130 1.906158
2013-11-18 0.130 1.946108
2013-08-12 0.130 1.726428
2013-05-13 0.120 1.675978
2013-03-01 0.120 1.518987
2012-11-16 0.110 2.182540
2012-08-17 0.100 1.763668
2012-05-18 0.075 1.286449
2008-11-12 0.240 5.783132
2008-08-13 0.620 5.677656
2008-05-13 0.620 3.759855
2008-02-13 0.620 3.757576
2007-11-13 0.620 3.336921
2007-08-13 0.620 3.404723
2007-05-14 0.620 2.150538
2007-02-01 0.600 1.885014
2006-11-06 0.580 2.131569
2006-08-03 0.570 2.273634
2006-04-27 0.720 2.824637
2006-01-19 0.700 2.646503
2005-10-25 0.650 2.338130
2005-08-11 0.570 2.065217
2005-04-27 0.550 2.161950
2005-01-27 0.470 1.979781
2004-10-13 0.430 1.985226
2004-07-01 0.350 1.794872
Additional Data
dividendRate 1.07
dividendYield 21.79
exDividendDate 2026-05-22
trailingAnnualDividendRate 1.07
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.21792263
lastDividendValue 0.17
lastDividendDate 2026-05-22
dividendDate 2026-06-05

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.5560579
Address1 333 Earle Ovington Boulevard
Address2 Suite 900
All Time High 34.45
All Time Low 0.56
Ask 0.0
Ask Size 11,200
Audit Risk 7
Average Analyst Rating 3.4 - Hold
Average Daily Volume10 Day 4,487,980
Average Daily Volume3 Month 4,396,957
Average Volume 4,396,957
Average Volume10Days 4,487,980
Beta 1.118
Bid 0.0
Bid Size 12,000
Board Risk 8
Book Value 11.625
City Uniondale
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 10
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 5.0
Current Ratio 2.428
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 5.06
Day Low 4.87
Debt To Equity 383.271
Display Name Arbor Realty Trust
Dividend Date 1,780,617,600
Dividend Rate 1.07
Dividend Yield 21.79
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,778,248,800
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,778,248,800
Earnings Growth -0.98
Earnings Quarterly Growth -0.731
Earnings Timestamp 1,778,243,400
Earnings Timestamp End 1,785,501,000
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,785,501,000
Ebitda Margins 0.0
Enterprise To Revenue 23.97
Enterprise Value 12,714,384,384
Eps Current Year 0.276
Eps Forward 0.606
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 0.41
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,779,408,000
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fax 516 506 4345
Fifty Day Average 5.7512
Fifty Day Average Change -0.7512002
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.13061625
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -55.605785
Fifty Two Week High 12.58
Fifty Two Week High Change -7.58
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.6025437
Fifty Two Week Low 4.86
Fifty Two Week Low Change 0.13999987
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.028806556
Fifty Two Week Range 4.86 - 12.58
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,081,344,600,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 11.87
Float Shares 183,976,178
Forward Eps 0.606
Forward P E 8.250825
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 653
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,782,864,000
Gross Margins 0.81728
Gross Profits 433,504,992
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.027880002
Held Percent Institutions 0.62151
Implied Shares Outstanding 208,531,421
Industry REIT - Mortgage
Industry Disp REIT - Mortgage
Industry Key reit-mortgage
Is Earnings Date Estimate 1
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,779,408,000
Last Dividend Value 0.17
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Long Business Summary Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets in the multifamily, single-family rental, and commercial real estate markets in the United States. It operates in two segments, Structured Business and Agency Business. The company invests in bridge and mezzanine loans, including junior participating interests in first mortgages, and preferred and direct equity, as well as real estate-related joint ventures, real estate-related notes, and various mortgage-related securities. It also offers bridge financing products to borrowers who seek short-term capital to be used in an acquisition of property; financing products to borrowers looking to develop, acquire or refinance conventional, workforce and affordable single-family rental (SFR) housing; multifamily investors short-term floating-rate financing for new and construction-ready multifamily projects; and mezzanine financing in the form of loans that are subordinate to a conventional first mortgage loan and senior to the borrower's equity in a transaction. In addition, the company provides financing by making preferred equity investments in entities that directly or indirectly own real property that are subordinate to a first mortgage loan; and invest in structured transactions, which are primarily comprised of joint ventures formed to acquire, develop and/or sell real estate-related assets. Further, it underwrites, originates, sells, and services financing loans underwritten using similar guidelines of existing agency loans sold to the government-sponsored enterprises; and long-term permanent fixed rate loans on SFR properties. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Uniondale, New York.
Long Name Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 1,042,657,152
Market State PRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_6207506
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common 77,618,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 944,493,506
Number Of Analyst Opinions 4
Open 4.9
Operating Cashflow 213,559,008
Operating Margins 0.18754
Overall Risk 9
Payout Ratio 3.0
Peg Ratio 1.65
Phone 516 506 4200
Pre Market Change 0.0
Pre Market Change Percent 0.0
Pre Market Price 5.0
Pre Market Time 1,784,108,405
Previous Close 4.91
Price Eps Current Year 18.115942
Price Hint 4
Price To Book 0.43010753
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 1.9657162
Profit Margins 0.22433001
Quick Ratio 2.273
Quote Source Name Delayed Quote
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key hold
Recommendation Mean 3.4
Region US
Regular Market Change 0.0900002
Regular Market Change Percent 1.833
Regular Market Day High 5.06
Regular Market Day Low 4.87
Regular Market Day Range 4.87 - 5.06
Regular Market Open 4.9
Regular Market Previous Close 4.91
Regular Market Price 5.0
Regular Market Time 1,784,059,203
Regular Market Volume 3,046,404
Return On Assets 0.00894
Return On Equity 0.041079998
Revenue Growth -0.103
Revenue Per Share 2.734
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20365608
Sector Real Estate
Sector Disp Real Estate
Sector Key real-estate
Share Holder Rights Risk 6
Shares Outstanding 192,361,203
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.00029999999
Shares Short 64,682
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 19,238
Short Name Arbor Realty Trust
Short Percent Of Float 0.0004
Short Ratio 0.02
Source Interval 15
State NY
Symbol ABR
Target High Price 8.5
Target Low Price 5.5
Target Mean Price 6.625
Target Median Price 6.25
Total Cash 407,948,000
Total Cash Per Share 2.121
Total Debt 11,417,841,664
Total Revenue 530,420,992
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 1.07
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.21792263
Trailing Eps 0.41
Trailing P E 12.195122
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 8.03265
Two Hundred Day Average Change -3.03265
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.3775404
Type Disp Equity
Volume 3,046,404
Website https://arbor.com
Zip 11,553