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Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP)

Consumer Cyclical | Auto Parts | Raleigh, United States | NYSE
41.66 USD -0.64 (-1.513%) ⇩ (Oct. 12, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★☆☆☆Dividends:★★⯪☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 3:03 a.m. EDT

The immediate outlook remains murky, hovering around neutral due to conflicting signals. On the surface, the stock looks cheap relative to its forward earnings (10x P/E) and trades at a discount to book value, supported by a recent 32% annual price recovery. However, the recent price action tells a different story; the stock has been grinding lower over the last two weeks, failing to capitalize on the pre-market surge mentioned in headlines. The options market confirms this skepticism, with traders aggressively buying puts to establish a floor, indicating fear of further weakness. While the dividend yield of 2.36% provides some cushion, the payout ratio sits at a modest 55%, suggesting the company is cautious rather than aggressive with capital returns. The long-term picture is equally unconvincing; despite the recent annual rebound, the asset has suffered a catastrophic 66% decline over the last nine years, reflecting a persistent struggle to generate sustainable growth in a competitive auto parts landscape. Until the multi-year downtrend is decisively broken and revenue growth stabilizes, this remains a speculative hold rather than a compelling investment.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
AutoARIMA ✓0.213115
AutoETS0.213232
MSTL0.213844
AutoTheta0.221885

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: AutoARIMA

Forecast Reliability
Score 32%
H-stat 6.67
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.029
Excess Kurtosis -0.81
Attribute Value
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Ex Dividend Date 2026-10-08
Last Dividend Date 2026-10-08
Debt to Equity Ratio 249.358
Revenue per Share 143.58
Market Cap 2,516,263,936
Trailing P/E 22.77
Forward P/E 10.64
Beta 1.09
Profit Margins 0.99%
Website https://shop.advanceautoparts.com

As of Oct. 10, 2026, 3:03 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning defensively with heavy out-of-the-money put volume and open interest, particularly at strikes below the current price (e.g., 37.5, 40, 42.5), creating a significant 'floor' of protection. Call activity is muted and concentrated near the money, while deep out-of-the-money calls show elevated implied volatility but minimal actual positioning. This asymmetry suggests the market is pricing in a high probability of further downside or stagnation rather than a breakout.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.59% 2.05% 2.02% 2.43%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-10-09 0.25 0.591017
2026-07-10 0.25 0.431406
2026-04-10 0.25 0.457959
2026-01-09 0.25 0.570255
2025-10-10 0.25 0.505255
2025-07-11 0.25 0.399616
2025-04-11 0.25 0.774954
2025-01-10 0.25 0.541126
2024-10-11 0.25 0.666134
2024-07-12 0.25 0.397330
2024-04-11 0.25 0.336247
2024-01-11 0.25 0.400449
2023-10-12 0.25 0.500300
2023-07-13 0.25 0.353807
2023-04-13 1.50 1.217039
2022-12-15 1.50 1.047267
2022-09-15 1.50 0.894881
2022-06-16 1.50 0.906618
2022-03-17 1.50 0.720530
2021-12-16 1.00 0.418130
2021-09-16 1.00 0.481487
2021-06-17 1.00 0.514430
2021-03-18 0.25 0.136069
2020-12-17 0.25 0.155919
2020-09-17 0.25 0.161540
2020-06-18 0.25 0.169251
2020-03-19 0.25 0.290799
2019-12-19 0.06 0.038344
2019-09-19 0.06 0.039267
2019-06-20 0.06 0.039147
2019-03-21 0.06 0.035488
2018-12-20 0.06 0.039344
2018-09-20 0.06 0.035388
2018-06-21 0.06 0.043011
2018-03-22 0.06 0.053711
2017-12-21 0.06 0.059922
2017-09-21 0.06 0.064048
2017-06-21 0.06 0.049954
2017-03-22 0.06 0.039664
2016-12-21 0.06 0.034580
2016-09-21 0.06 0.041003
2016-06-15 0.06 0.039052
2016-03-16 0.06 0.037745
2015-12-22 0.06 0.040587
2015-09-16 0.06 0.033597
2015-06-17 0.06 0.037738
2015-03-18 0.06 0.040260
2014-12-23 0.06 0.037223
2014-09-17 0.06 0.044653
2014-06-16 0.06 0.047996
2014-03-19 0.06 0.048185
2013-12-18 0.06 0.054910
2013-09-18 0.06 0.074664
2013-06-19 0.06 0.071369
2013-03-20 0.06 0.074794
2012-12-19 0.06 0.083299
2012-09-19 0.06 0.087873
2012-06-20 0.06 0.086919
2012-03-21 0.06 0.067333
2011-12-21 0.06 0.087591
2011-09-21 0.06 0.100351
2011-06-22 0.06 0.102302
2011-03-23 0.06 0.091827
2010-12-21 0.06 0.089915
2010-09-22 0.06 0.100318
2010-06-23 0.06 0.117948
2010-03-24 0.06 0.138281
2009-12-22 0.06 0.144683
2009-09-23 0.06 0.155320
2009-06-24 0.06 0.146306
2009-03-25 0.06 0.150000
2008-12-23 0.06 0.194363
2008-09-17 0.06 0.156904
2008-06-18 0.06 0.149813
2008-03-18 0.06 0.183430
2007-12-19 0.06 0.157770
2007-09-19 0.06 0.174165
2007-06-20 0.06 0.146306
2007-03-21 0.06 0.153100
2006-12-20 0.06 0.166574
2006-09-20 0.06 0.180560
2006-06-21 0.06 0.160385
2006-03-22 0.06 0.144439
Additional Data
dividendRate 1.0
dividendYield 2.4
exDividendDate 2026-10-09
trailingAnnualDividendRate 1.0
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.023640662
lastDividendValue 0.25
lastDividendDate 2026-10-09
dividendDate 2026-10-23

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change -0.22923219
Address1 4,200 Six Forks Road
All Time High 244.55
All Time Low 12.33
Ask 0.0
Ask Size 300
Audit Risk 5
Average Analyst Rating 3.0 - Hold
Average Daily Volume10 Day 1,616,430
Average Daily Volume3 Month 1,916,029
Average Volume 1,916,029
Average Volume10Days 1,616,430
Beta 1.088
Bid 0.0
Bid Size 400
Board Risk 2
Book Value 37.617
City Raleigh
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 3
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 41.66
Current Ratio 1.748
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,790,726,400
Day High 42.32
Day Low 40.845
Debt To Equity 249.358
Display Name Advance Auto Parts
Dividend Date 1,792,713,600
Dividend Rate 1.0
Dividend Yield 2.4
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,787,227,200
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,787,227,200
Earnings Growth 2.6
Earnings Quarterly Growth 2.667
Earnings Timestamp 1,787,229,000
Earnings Timestamp End 1,793,881,800
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,793,881,800
Ebitda 629,000,000
Ebitda Margins 0.07295
Enterprise To Ebitda 7.988
Enterprise To Revenue 0.583
Enterprise Value 5,024,264,192
Eps Current Year 2.9984
Eps Forward 3.91486
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 1.83
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,791,504,000
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 20
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 45.8866
Fifty Day Average Change -4.2266006
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.092109695
Fifty Two Week Change Percent -22.92322
Fifty Two Week High 65.2
Fifty Two Week High Change -23.539997
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.36104292
Fifty Two Week Low 37.89
Fifty Two Week Low Change 3.7700005
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.09949856
Fifty Two Week Range 37.89 - 65.2
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 1,007,044,200,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 2.31
Float Shares 60,126,388
Forward Eps 3.91486
Forward P E 10.641504
Free Cashflow -54,625,000
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 28,274
Fullday Change -0.6399994
Fullday Change Percent -1.513001
Fullday Price 41.66
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,790,812,800
Gross Margins 0.45139998
Gross Profits 3,892,000,000
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.00745
Held Percent Institutions 1.27116
Implied Shares Outstanding 60,400,000
Industry Auto Parts
Industry Disp Auto Parts
Industry Key auto-parts
Ir Website http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=130560&p=irol-irhome
Is Earnings Date Estimate 1
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,791,504,000
Last Dividend Value 0.25
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,398,400
Last Split Date 1,127,692,800
Last Split Factor 3:2
Long Business Summary Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive aftermarket parts. The company offers batteries and battery accessories; belts and hoses; brakes and brake pads; chassis parts; climate control parts; clutches and drive shafts; engines and engine parts; exhaust systems and parts; hub assemblies; ignition components and wires; radiators and cooling parts; starters and alternators; and steering and alignment parts. It also provides air conditioning chemicals and accessories; air fresheners; antifreeze and washer fluid; electrical wire and fuses; electronics; floor mats, seat covers, and interior accessories; hand and specialty tools; lighting products; performance parts; sealants, adhesives, and compounds; tire repair accessories; vent shades, mirrors, and exterior accessories; washes, waxes, and cleaning supplies; and wiper blades. In addition, the company offers air filters; fuel and oil additives; fuel filters; grease and lubricants; motor oil; oil filters; part cleaners and treatments; and transmission fluid. Further, it provides battery and wiper installation; engine light scanning; electrical system testing, including batteries, starters, and alternators; oil and battery recycling; and loaner tool program services. The company serves professional installers and do-it-yourself customers. It operates stores and independently owned branded stores in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Mexico, and various Caribbean islands primarily under the Advance Auto Parts and Carquest trade brands. The company also offers its products online. The company was founded in 1929 and is based in Raleigh, North Carolina.
Long Name Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 2,516,263,936
Market State PRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_24333
Most Recent Quarter 1,784,332,800
Net Income To Common 109,000,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,934,400
Non Diluted Market Cap 2,482,440,000
Number Of Analyst Opinions 19
Open 42.73
Operating Cashflow 312,000,000
Operating Margins 0.0555
Overall Risk 1
Payout Ratio 0.5556
Peg Ratio 0.72
Phone 540 362 4911
Previous Close 42.3
Price Eps Current Year 13.894077
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 1.107478
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 0.29184225
Profit Margins 0.00986
Quick Ratio 0.821
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key hold
Recommendation Mean 3.0
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.639999
Regular Market Change Percent -1.513
Regular Market Day High 42.32
Regular Market Day Low 40.845
Regular Market Day Range 40.845 - 42.32
Regular Market Open 42.73
Regular Market Previous Close 42.3
Regular Market Price 41.66
Regular Market Time 1,791,835,203
Regular Market Volume 1,267,890
Return On Assets 0.020669999
Return On Equity 0.04888
Revenue Growth -0.005
Revenue Per Share 143.58
Sand P52 Week Change 0.17318833
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Sector Disp Consumer Cyclical
Sector Key consumer-cyclical
Share Holder Rights Risk 1
Shares Outstanding 60,400,000
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.18530001
Shares Short 11,192,716
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,788,134,400
Shares Short Prior Month 9,801,676
Short Name Advance Auto Parts Inc.
Short Percent Of Float 0.3003
Short Ratio 6.23
Source Interval 15
State NC
Symbol AAP
Target High Price 70.0
Target Low Price 33.0
Target Mean Price 49.94737
Target Median Price 48.0
Total Cash 3,120,000,000
Total Cash Per Share 51.656
Total Debt 5,628,000,256
Total Revenue 8,622,000,128
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 1.0
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.023640662
Trailing Eps 1.83
Trailing P E 22.765026
Trailing Peg Ratio 0.7685
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 51.49345
Two Hundred Day Average Change -9.83345
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.19096507
Type Disp Equity
Volume 1,267,890
Website https://shop.advanceautoparts.com
Zip 27,609