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AAON, Inc. (AAON)

Industrials | Building Products & Equipment | Tulsa, United States | NasdaqGS
112.19 USD -1.97 (-1.726%) ⇩ (July 13, 2026, 4 p.m. EDT)
After hours: 114.15 +1.96 (1.747%) ⇧ (July 13, 2026, 5:49 p.m. EDT)

Short-term:★★★⯪☆Long-term:★★★☆☆Dividends:★★⯪☆☆
Hot Take | July 11, 2026, 4:52 a.m. EDT

The narrative here is a classic case of a high-quality business trading at a discount due to recent price weakness, yet the market is pricing in a violent reversal. Fundamentally, AAON is showing signs of life with revenue growth accelerating to 54% and earnings jumping 37%, supported by a fortress balance sheet and a manageable payout ratio. The price has corrected significantly from its highs, offering a compelling entry point for those willing to ignore the elevated trailing P/E, which compresses nicely on a forward basis. However, the short-term outlook is fraught with tension; the stock is technically lagging its 50-day moving average, and the options market is screaming for a binary outcome—either a massive gap up to test the 135-160 resistance or a continued grind lower. The statistical forecast model offers almost no guidance, reflecting the noise in the immediate term. While the long-term thesis for a compounder is intact, the path forward looks choppy and speculative until the technicals align with the improving fundamentals.

Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL_66_79 ✓0.185173
MSTL_790.207881
MSTL_660.212870
AutoTheta0.235896
MSTL0.236753
AutoARIMA0.248406
AutoETS0.248406

Forecast horizon: 60 days | Selected: MSTL_66_79

Forecast Reliability
Score 36%
H-stat 3.19
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.031
Excess Kurtosis -0.72
Attribute Value
Sector Industrials
Ex Dividend Date 2026-06-04
Last Dividend Date 2026-06-04
Debt to Equity Ratio 47.455
Revenue per Share 19.816
Market Cap 9,189,675,008
Trailing P/E 79.01
Forward P/E 34.08
Beta 1.41
Profit Margins 7.31%
Website https://www.aaon.com

As of July 11, 2026, 4:52 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning for a volatile rebound rather than a steady grind higher. Call volume is heavily skewed toward out-of-the-money strikes (135, 145, 160), indicating bets on a sharp breakout above current levels. However, put volume remains significant at lower strikes (65, 70, 90), creating a 'straddle' environment where traders anticipate a large move in either direction. The massive implied volatility spike at deep out-of-the-money strikes suggests fear of a gap event or a speculative squeeze, while the heavy open interest walls at 135 and 160 act as psychological resistance targets.


Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.08% 0.43% 0.42% 0.48%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-06-05 0.100000 0.075403
2026-03-18 0.100000 0.127307
2025-11-26 0.100000 0.107296
2025-09-05 0.100000 0.123229
2025-06-06 0.100000 0.103434
2025-03-18 0.100000 0.125313
2024-11-29 0.080000 0.058677
2024-09-06 0.080000 0.091533
2024-06-07 0.080000 0.111127
2024-03-15 0.080000 0.097029
2023-11-28 0.080000 0.129220
2023-09-07 0.080000 0.121766
2023-06-08 0.080000 0.126143
2023-03-10 0.080000 0.132626
2022-11-25 0.160000 0.305499
2022-06-02 0.126667 0.342837
2021-11-24 0.126667 0.241332
2021-06-02 0.126667 0.298274
2020-11-25 0.126667 0.288448
2020-06-02 0.126667 0.350167
2019-11-26 0.106667 0.324216
2019-05-31 0.106667 0.352502
2018-11-28 0.106667 0.417429
2018-06-07 0.106667 0.484850
2017-11-29 0.086667 0.353743
2017-06-07 0.086667 0.360112
2016-11-30 0.086667 0.395138
2016-06-08 0.073333 0.396395
2015-11-30 0.073333 0.445162
2015-06-10 0.073333 0.457378
2014-11-28 0.060000 0.434363
2014-06-10 0.057778 0.395619
2013-11-27 0.044444 0.327008
2013-06-11 0.029630 0.318070
2012-11-29 0.071111 1.121494
2012-06-07 0.035556 0.619523
2011-11-29 0.035556 0.600909
2011-06-08 0.035556 0.565334
2010-11-29 0.035556 0.716569
2010-06-08 0.035556 0.785693
2009-12-10 0.035556 0.967234
2009-06-09 0.035556 0.860431
2008-12-10 0.031605 0.775571
2008-06-10 0.031605 0.741772
2007-12-11 0.031605 0.851066
2007-06-07 0.026337 0.696125
2006-12-11 0.026337 0.746535
2006-06-08 0.026337 0.904553
Additional Data
dividendRate 0.4
dividendYield 0.35
exDividendDate 2026-06-05
trailingAnnualDividendRate 0.4
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.0035038542
lastDividendValue 0.1
lastDividendDate 2026-06-05
dividendDate 2026-06-26

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.53255475
Address1 2,425 South Yukon Avenue
All Time High 150.46
All Time Low 0.059858
Ask 119.99
Ask Size 2
Audit Risk 3
Average Analyst Rating 1.2 - Strong Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 1,030,560
Average Daily Volume3 Month 1,147,545
Average Volume 1,147,545
Average Volume10Days 1,030,560
Beta 1.412
Bid 103.08
Bid Size 2
Board Risk 3
Book Value 11.413
City Tulsa
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 1
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 112.19
Current Ratio 2.624
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,782,777,600
Day High 114.55
Day Low 110.225
Debt To Equity 47.455
Display Name AAON
Dividend Date 1,782,432,000
Dividend Rate 0.4
Dividend Yield 0.35
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,778,158,800
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,778,158,800
Earnings Growth 0.371
Earnings Quarterly Growth 0.359
Earnings Timestamp 1,778,157,000
Earnings Timestamp End 1,786,365,000
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,786,365,000
Ebitda 251,051,008
Ebitda Margins 0.15526
Enterprise To Ebitda 38.371
Enterprise To Revenue 5.957
Enterprise Value 9,632,993,280
Eps Current Year 2.26
Eps Forward 3.292
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 1.42
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,780,617,600
Exchange NMS
Exchange Data Delayed By 0
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fax 918 583 6094
Fifty Day Average 126.0664
Fifty Day Average Change -13.876396
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.11007212
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 53.255474
Fifty Two Week High 150.46
Fifty Two Week High Change -38.270004
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.25435334
Fifty Two Week Low 62.0
Fifty Two Week Low Change 50.190002
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.8095162
Fifty Two Week Range 62.0 - 150.46
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds 724,516,200,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 0.49
Float Shares 68,217,710
Forward Eps 3.292
Forward P E 34.079586
Free Cashflow -215,134,368
Full Exchange Name NasdaqGS
Full Time Employees 5,897
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,782,864,000
Gross Margins 0.26242
Gross Profits 424,324,992
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.16837
Held Percent Institutions 0.87947
Implied Shares Outstanding 81,911,710
Industry Building Products & Equipment
Industry Disp Building Products & Equipment
Industry Key building-products-equipment
Ir Website http://www.aaon.com/Investors
Is Earnings Date Estimate 1
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,780,617,600
Last Dividend Value 0.1
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Last Split Date 1,692,230,400
Last Split Factor 3:2
Long Business Summary AAON, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and selling air conditioning and heating equipment in the United States and Canada. The company operates through three segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX. It offers rooftop units, data center cooling solutions, cleanroom systems, packaged outdoor mechanical rooms, air handling units, makeup air units, energy recovery units, condensing units, geothermal/water-source heat pumps, coils, and controls. The company markets and sells its products to retail, manufacturing, educational, lodging, supermarket, data centers, medical and pharmaceutical, and other commercial industries. It sells its products through a network of independent manufacturer representative organizations and internal sales force, as well as online. AAON, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Long Name AAON, Inc.
Market us_market
Market Cap 9,189,675,008
Market State POSTPOST
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_320500
Most Recent Quarter 1,774,915,200
Net Income To Common 118,116,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 9,351,040,813
Number Of Analyst Opinions 4
Open 112.67
Operating Cashflow 43,742,000
Operating Margins 0.11552
Overall Risk 3
Payout Ratio 0.28170002
Peg Ratio 3.24
Phone 918 583 2266
Post Market Change 1.9599991
Post Market Change Percent 1.7470354
Post Market Price 114.15
Post Market Time 1,783,979,394
Previous Close 114.16
Price Eps Current Year 49.641594
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 9.830019
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 5.683311
Profit Margins 0.07305
Quick Ratio 1.691
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key strong_buy
Recommendation Mean 1.2
Region US
Regular Market Change -1.97
Regular Market Change Percent -1.72565
Regular Market Day High 114.55
Regular Market Day Low 110.225
Regular Market Day Range 110.225 - 114.55
Regular Market Open 112.67
Regular Market Previous Close 114.16
Regular Market Price 112.19
Regular Market Time 1,783,972,801
Regular Market Volume 642,237
Return On Assets 0.068730004
Return On Equity 0.13498999
Revenue Growth 0.543
Revenue Per Share 19.816
Sand P52 Week Change 0.20847368
Sector Industrials
Sector Disp Industrials
Sector Key industrials
Share Holder Rights Risk 6
Shares Outstanding 81,911,710
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.048899997
Shares Short 4,005,674
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,780,012,800
Shares Short Prior Month 4,698,837
Short Name AAON, Inc.
Short Percent Of Float 0.0588
Short Ratio 4.08
Source Interval 15
State OK
Symbol AAON
Target High Price 154.0
Target Low Price 120.0
Target Mean Price 143.5
Target Median Price 150.0
Total Cash 13,000
Total Cash Per Share 0.0
Total Debt 443,332,000
Total Revenue 1,616,957,952
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.4
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.0035038542
Trailing Eps 1.42
Trailing P E 79.00705
Trailing Peg Ratio 3.4303
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 100.19255
Two Hundred Day Average Change 11.997452
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent 0.11974395
Type Disp Equity
Volume 642,237
Website https://www.aaon.com
Zip 74,107