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Alcoa Corporation (AA)

Basic Materials | Aluminum | Pittsburgh, United States | NYSE
42.20 USD -0.63 (-1.471%) ⇩ (Oct. 9, 2026, 4:01 p.m. EDT)
Short-term:★★⯪☆☆Long-term:★★★☆☆Dividends:★★⯪☆☆
Hot Take ↕ | Oct. 10, 2026, 5:44 a.m. EDT

Alcoa presents a compelling value trap scenario where strong fundamentals clash with persistent market skepticism. The business is objectively healthy, boasting a robust 31% revenue growth, a massive 48% surge in earnings, and a fortress-like payout ratio of just 8%, allowing it to fund dividends while aggressively expanding capacity. However, the market has priced in a deep structural decline, evidenced by the stock trading 49% below its 200-day average and suffering a 10% drop last year. While the long-term outlook is solid given the turnaround in profitability and the strategic Gallium project, the short-term path is obscured by heavy put buying and a lack of immediate catalysts to reverse the downtrend. The stock offers a high-yield floor for patient capital, but the momentum remains firmly bearish.
Model Selection — Backtest MAE (log-scale, lower is better)
ModelMAE
MSTL ✓0.077024
AutoETS0.081453
AutoARIMA0.322680
AutoTheta0.323885

Forecast horizon: 45 days | Selected: MSTL

Forecast Reliability
Score 44%
H-stat 0.33
Ljung-Box p 0.000
Jarque-Bera p 0.120
Excess Kurtosis -1.08
Attribute Value
Sector Basic Materials
Ex Dividend Date 2026-08-10
Last Dividend Date 2026-08-10
Debt to Equity Ratio 29.918
Revenue per Share 52.019
Market Cap 11,136,978,944
Trailing P/E 8.77
Forward P/E 7.44
Beta 1.74
Profit Margins 9.39%
Website https://www.alcoa.com

As of Oct. 10, 2026, 5:44 a.m. EDT: Speculators are positioning defensively with heavy put volume and open interest concentrated at the money and slightly out-of-the-money strikes (40-42), creating a significant 'floor' against further declines. Call activity is muted relative to puts, though there is notable open interest buildup at higher strikes (50-55) suggesting a speculative ceiling rather than immediate breakout conviction. Implied volatility remains elevated compared to historical norms, indicating fear of downside risk.

Dividend Data

Yield Summary
Last Yield 1yr Yield 3yr Avg 5yr Avg
0.18% 0.79% 1.11% 1.01%
Dividend History
Date Dividend Yield %
2026-08-11 0.100000 0.184911
2026-05-19 0.100000 0.156421
2026-03-10 0.100000 0.163106
2025-11-04 0.100000 0.283608
2025-08-12 0.100000 0.318674
2025-05-20 0.100000 0.347343
2025-03-04 0.100000 0.321027
2024-10-29 0.100000 0.244141
2024-08-12 0.100000 0.320616
2024-05-20 0.100000 0.235128
2024-03-04 0.100000 0.363901
2023-10-30 0.100000 0.394945
2023-08-07 0.100000 0.293600
2023-05-15 0.100000 0.270343
2023-03-06 0.100000 0.186254
2022-10-31 0.100000 0.256213
2022-08-08 0.100000 0.205550
2022-05-16 0.100000 0.165893
2022-03-07 0.100000 0.117096
2021-10-28 0.100000 0.215285
2016-11-02 0.090000 0.392842
2016-08-03 0.072090 0.288184
2016-05-04 0.072090 0.292969
2016-02-03 0.072090 0.397351
2015-11-04 0.072090 0.319829
2015-08-05 0.072090 0.307377
2015-05-07 0.072090 0.218818
2015-02-04 0.072090 0.182704
2014-11-05 0.072090 0.184502
2014-08-06 0.072090 0.182482
2014-05-08 0.072090 0.225904
2014-02-05 0.072090 0.271739
2013-11-06 0.072090 0.310559
2013-08-07 0.072090 0.385109
2013-05-09 0.072090 0.341297
2013-02-06 0.072090 0.334821
2012-10-31 0.072090 0.350058
2012-08-01 0.072090 0.355872
2012-05-10 0.072090 0.329670
2012-02-01 0.072090 0.294118
2011-11-02 0.072090 0.280374
2011-08-03 0.072090 0.210379
2011-05-12 0.072090 0.174927
2011-02-02 0.072090 0.174317
2010-11-03 0.072090 0.228310
2010-08-04 0.072090 0.260417
2010-05-05 0.072090 0.240770
2010-02-03 0.072090 0.222387
2009-11-04 0.072090 0.239808
2009-08-05 0.072090 0.225904
2009-05-06 0.072090 0.285714
2009-02-04 0.408510 2.173913
2008-11-05 0.408510 1.440678
2008-08-06 0.408510 0.528443
2008-04-30 0.408510 0.488787
2008-02-06 0.408510 0.524529
2007-10-31 0.408510 0.429401
2007-08-01 0.408510 0.447958
2007-05-02 0.408510 0.487385
2007-01-31 0.408510 0.526316
2006-12-21 0.360450 0.511945
2006-11-01 0.360450 0.529474
2006-08-02 0.360450 0.505902
2006-05-03 0.360450 0.444840
2006-02-01 0.360450 0.482160
2005-11-02 0.360450 0.605083
2005-08-03 0.360450 0.522648
2005-05-04 0.360450 0.509165
2005-02-02 0.360450 0.508820
2004-11-03 0.360450 0.467290
2004-08-04 0.360450 0.482936
2004-05-06 0.360450 0.491803
2004-02-04 0.360450 0.441176
2003-11-05 0.360450 0.469337
2003-08-06 0.360450 0.567108
2003-04-30 0.360450 0.654165
2003-02-05 0.360450 0.756048
2002-11-06 0.360450 0.628931
2002-07-31 0.360450 0.554529
2002-05-01 0.360450 0.441176
2002-02-06 0.360450 0.445236
2001-10-31 0.360450 0.464828
2001-08-01 0.360450 0.390523
2001-05-02 0.360450 0.362933
2001-01-31 0.360450 0.408274
2000-11-01 0.300375 0.430108
2000-08-02 0.300375 0.392927
2000-05-03 0.300375 0.392927
2000-02-02 0.300375 0.335289
1999-11-03 0.241502 0.336755
1999-08-04 0.240300 0.312500
1999-05-05 0.242703 0.335618
1999-02-04 0.242703 0.466042
1998-11-04 0.150188 0.315210
1998-08-05 0.150188 0.384617
1998-05-06 0.150188 0.328678
1998-02-04 0.225281 0.492610
1997-11-05 0.150188 0.337839
1997-08-06 0.150188 0.284294
1997-04-30 0.150188 0.357783
1997-02-05 0.135169 0.334573
1996-10-30 0.200050 0.562026
1996-07-31 0.135169 0.387932
1996-05-01 0.135169 0.362904
1996-01-31 0.135169 0.405406
1995-11-01 0.135169 0.440099
1995-08-02 0.135169 0.403588
1995-05-01 0.135169 0.508476
1995-01-30 0.135169 0.580646
1994-10-31 0.120150 0.469208
1994-08-01 0.120150 0.506329
1994-05-02 0.120150 0.567376
1994-01-31 0.120150 0.505529
1993-11-01 0.120150 0.590406
1993-08-02 0.120150 0.557491
1993-05-03 0.120150 0.613027
1993-02-01 0.120150 0.547009
1992-11-02 0.120150 0.575540
1992-08-03 0.120150 0.548885
1992-04-27 0.120150 0.543294
1992-02-03 0.133667 0.689923
1991-10-28 0.120150 0.647773
1991-07-29 0.120150 0.572451
1991-04-29 0.133667 0.662943
1991-01-28 0.174218 0.976845
1990-10-29 0.120150 0.735632
1990-07-30 0.225281 1.077198
1990-04-30 0.120150 0.645161
1990-01-29 0.540675 3.000000
1989-10-30 0.120150 0.577617
1989-07-31 0.120150 0.579710
1989-05-01 0.120150 0.637450
1989-01-30 0.456570 2.417495
1988-10-31 0.105131 0.629212
1988-08-01 0.105131 0.648147
1988-05-02 0.090113 0.674161
1988-02-01 0.090113 0.774198
1987-11-17 0.051064 0.386366
1987-08-03 0.090113 0.472444
1987-04-27 0.090113 0.640004
1987-02-03 0.090113 0.725080
1986-11-03 0.090113 0.805374
1986-07-28 0.090113 0.869570
1986-04-28 0.090113 0.738466
1986-02-03 0.090113 0.710063
1985-10-28 0.090113 0.926646
1985-07-29 0.090113 0.830454
1985-04-29 0.090113 0.956181
1985-01-28 0.090113 0.781763
1984-10-29 0.090113 0.860220
1984-07-30 0.090113 0.933857
1984-04-30 0.090113 0.854097
1984-01-30 0.090113 0.727277
1983-10-31 0.090113 0.727277
1983-08-01 0.090113 0.789478
1983-05-02 0.090113 0.919545
1983-01-31 0.090113 0.912553
1982-10-29 0.090113 1.081087
1982-08-02 0.135169 1.846157
1982-05-03 0.135169 1.836738
1982-02-01 0.135169 2.011177
1981-10-30 0.135169 1.865288
1981-08-03 0.135169 1.628962
1981-05-04 0.135169 1.384618
1981-02-02 0.067584 0.717127
1980-10-31 0.120150 1.196262
1980-07-28 0.120150 1.185185
1980-04-28 0.120150 1.461187
1980-01-28 0.120150 1.285141
1979-10-29 0.105131 1.372546
1979-07-30 0.105131 1.375918
1979-04-30 0.090113 1.103454
1979-01-29 0.090113 1.132082
1978-10-30 0.075094 1.063833
1978-07-31 0.075094 1.104976
1978-05-01 0.067584 0.954902
1978-01-30 0.067584 1.135640
1977-10-31 0.067584 1.005581
1977-08-01 0.067584 0.861239
1977-05-02 0.067584 0.787742
1977-01-31 0.052566 0.663512
1976-11-05 0.052566 0.673082
1976-08-09 0.052566 0.615389
1976-05-10 0.050313 0.644233
1976-02-02 0.050313 0.740334
1975-11-07 0.050313 0.908478
1975-08-11 0.050313 0.705266
1975-05-12 0.050313 0.701573
1975-02-07 0.050313 1.011325
1974-11-08 0.050313 1.080649
1974-08-05 0.050313 0.699741
1974-05-06 0.050313 0.680206
1974-02-08 0.050313 0.779073
1973-11-02 0.048561 0.641327
1973-08-06 0.048561 0.697847
1973-05-07 0.048561 0.810027
1973-01-29 0.045056 0.837205
1972-11-03 0.045056 0.923072
1972-08-07 0.045056 0.880191
1972-05-08 0.045056 0.895517
1972-01-31 0.045056 1.058818
1971-11-08 0.045056 1.146491
1971-08-09 0.045056 0.884516
1971-05-10 0.045056 0.676688
1971-02-01 0.045056 0.688333
1970-11-06 0.045056 0.845066
1970-08-10 0.045056 0.935060
1970-05-11 0.045056 0.743797
1970-02-02 0.045056 0.685710
1969-11-07 0.045056 0.617492
1969-08-11 0.045056 0.659337
1969-05-12 0.045056 0.560745
1969-02-03 0.045056 0.575077
1968-11-08 0.045056 0.640566
1968-08-12 0.045056 0.692304
1968-05-13 0.045056 0.640566
1968-02-06 0.045056 0.653354
1967-11-06 0.045056 0.613284
1967-08-08 0.045056 0.491801
1967-05-09 0.045056 0.487802
1967-02-07 0.040050 0.461760
1966-11-04 0.040050 0.497667
1966-08-09 0.040050 0.483384
1966-05-10 0.040050 0.466472
1966-02-08 0.035044 0.396603
1965-11-08 0.035044 0.487808
1965-08-10 0.035044 0.513765
1965-05-10 0.035044 0.462813
1965-02-02 0.035044 0.553364
1964-11-09 0.030038 0.489804
1964-08-11 0.030038 0.450289
1964-05-12 0.030038 0.379753
1964-02-04 0.030038 0.398678
1963-11-12 0.030038 0.451985
1963-08-13 0.030038 0.461546
1963-05-14 0.030038 0.474316
1963-02-05 0.030038 0.529810
1962-11-13 0.030038 0.563390
1962-08-14 0.030038 0.483879
1962-05-15 0.030038 0.528643
1962-02-06 0.030038 0.510647
Additional Data
dividendRate 0.4
dividendYield 0.94
exDividendDate 2026-08-11
trailingAnnualDividendRate 0.4
trailingAnnualDividendYield 0.009339248
lastDividendValue 0.1
lastDividendDate 2026-08-11
dividendDate 2026-08-27

Info Dump

Attribute Value
52 Week Change 0.16413796
Address1 201 Isabella Street
Address2 Suite 500
All Time High 117.19431
All Time Low 3.6045
Ask 42.28
Ask Size 100
Audit Risk 5
Average Analyst Rating 1.8 - Buy
Average Daily Volume10 Day 3,822,370
Average Daily Volume3 Month 4,570,154
Average Volume 4,570,154
Average Volume10Days 3,822,370
Beta 1.739
Bid 42.1
Bid Size 600
Board Risk 1
Book Value 27.926
City Pittsburgh
Compensation As Of Epoch Date 1,767,139,200
Compensation Risk 1
Country United States
Crypto Tradeable 0
Currency USD
Current Price 42.2
Current Ratio 1.535
Custom Price Alert Confidence HIGH
Date Short Interest 1,789,430,400
Day High 43.28
Day Low 41.975
Debt To Equity 29.918
Display Name Alcoa
Dividend Date 1,787,788,800
Dividend Rate 0.4
Dividend Yield 0.94
Earnings Call Timestamp End 1,792,094,400
Earnings Call Timestamp Start 1,792,094,400
Earnings Growth 1.468
Earnings Quarterly Growth 1.482
Earnings Timestamp 1,792,094,400
Earnings Timestamp End 1,792,094,400
Earnings Timestamp Start 1,792,094,400
Ebitda 2,311,000,064
Ebitda Margins 0.16989
Enterprise To Ebitda 5.258
Enterprise To Revenue 0.893
Enterprise Value 12,150,873,088
Eps Current Year 6.57273
Eps Forward 5.67282
Eps Trailing Twelve Months 4.81
Esg Populated 0
Ex Dividend Date 1,786,406,400
Exchange NYQ
Exchange Data Delayed By 20
Exchange Timezone Name America/New_York
Exchange Timezone Short Name EDT
Fifty Day Average 47.4544
Fifty Day Average Change -5.2543983
Fifty Day Average Change Percent -0.11072521
Fifty Two Week Change Percent 16.413795
Fifty Two Week High 84.38
Fifty Two Week High Change -42.179996
Fifty Two Week High Change Percent -0.49988148
Fifty Two Week Low 35.12
Fifty Two Week Low Change 7.080002
Fifty Two Week Low Change Percent 0.20159459
Fifty Two Week Range 35.12 - 84.38
Financial Currency USD
First Trade Date Milliseconds -252,322,200,000
Five Year Avg Dividend Yield 0.67
Float Shares 262,808,943
Forward Eps 5.67282
Forward P E 7.438981
Free Cashflow 960,750,016
Full Exchange Name NYSE
Full Time Employees 14,900
Fullday Change 0.049999237
Fullday Change Percent 0.1184816
Fullday Price 42.25
Gmt Off Set Milliseconds -14,400,000
Governance Epoch Date 1,790,812,800
Gross Margins 0.19790001
Gross Profits 2,692,000,000
Has Pre Post Market Data 1
Held Percent Insiders 0.0051599997
Held Percent Institutions 0.85581
Implied Shares Outstanding 263,909,445
Industry Aluminum
Industry Disp Aluminum
Industry Key aluminum
Is Earnings Date Estimate 0
Language en-US
Last Dividend Date 1,786,406,400
Last Dividend Value 0.1
Last Fiscal Year End 1,767,139,200
Last Split Date 1,477,958,400
Last Split Factor 1,000:801
Long Business Summary Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Alumina and Aluminum. It operates bauxite and other aluminous ores mining and processes bauxite into alumina for sale to aluminum smelter customers and customers who process it into industrial chemical products through supply contracts to third parties, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses. The company also offers aluminium powder and scrap and primary aluminum in the form of commodity grade ingot and value-add ingot to customers that produce products for transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other industrial markets. In addition, it provides energy that generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies. The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in May 2016. The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Long Name Alcoa Corporation
Market us_market
Market Cap 11,136,978,944
Market State PRE
Max Age 86,400
Message Board Id finmb_369991357
Most Recent Quarter 1,782,777,600
Net Income To Common 1,272,000,000
Next Fiscal Year End 1,798,675,200
Non Diluted Market Cap 11,617,293,768
Number Of Analyst Opinions 12
Open 43.09
Operating Cashflow 1,051,000,000
Operating Margins 0.18356001
Overall Risk 1
Payout Ratio 0.0832
Peg Ratio 8.36
Phone 412 315 2900
Pre Market Change 0.049999237
Pre Market Change Percent 0.1184816
Pre Market Price 42.25
Pre Market Time 1,791,796,681
Previous Close 42.83
Price Eps Current Year 6.420468
Price Hint 2
Price To Book 1.5111365
Price To Sales Trailing12 Months 0.8187149
Profit Margins 0.09388
Quick Ratio 0.8
Quote Source Name Nasdaq Real Time Price
Quote Type EQUITY
Recommendation Key buy
Recommendation Mean 1.76923
Region US
Regular Market Change -0.630001
Regular Market Change Percent -1.47093
Regular Market Day High 43.28
Regular Market Day Low 41.975
Regular Market Day Range 41.975 - 43.28
Regular Market Open 43.09
Regular Market Previous Close 42.83
Regular Market Price 42.2
Regular Market Time 1,791,576,111
Regular Market Volume 4,068,751
Return On Assets 0.06493
Return On Equity 0.18226999
Revenue Growth 0.314
Revenue Per Share 52.019
Sand P52 Week Change 0.17383456
Sector Basic Materials
Sector Disp Basic Materials
Sector Key basic-materials
Share Holder Rights Risk 2
Shares Outstanding 263,909,445
Shares Percent Shares Out 0.0454
Shares Short 11,984,650
Shares Short Previous Month Date 1,786,665,600
Shares Short Prior Month 10,933,734
Short Name Alcoa Corporation
Short Percent Of Float 0.045500003
Short Ratio 3.12
Source Interval 15
State PA
Symbol AA
Target High Price 80.0
Target Low Price 49.7
Target Mean Price 62.225
Target Median Price 56.0
Total Cash 1,352,000,000
Total Cash Per Share 5.123
Total Debt 2,224,999,936
Total Revenue 13,603,000,320
Tradeable 0
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate 0.4
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield 0.009339248
Trailing Eps 4.81
Trailing P E 8.773389
Trailing Peg Ratio None
Triggerable 1
Two Hundred Day Average 57.8393
Two Hundred Day Average Change -15.6392975
Two Hundred Day Average Change Percent -0.27039224
Type Disp Equity
Volume 4,068,751
Website https://www.alcoa.com
Zip 15,212-5858